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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2023 5:53 pm 
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The Hawk wrote:
man of few opinions wrote:
IkeSouth wrote:
seeing how bad out backups are, keep fields and still take a QB with the #1 pick. fields starter no matter what 2023, but position up for grabs after that or worst case we have a top prospect to trade. best case fields get inevitably hurt and we dont skip a beat.

if the bears keep fields AND draft a QB #1 they fucked up bad.


Yeah. Athletically, Fields is as good a young qb that has ever entered the NFL. And he has improved in the limited time given with the Bear's and with virtually no blocking or receiving help.

So start him at RB and draft a QB.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2023 8:18 pm 
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We went through some of this in the Game 17 thread. At most, half the roster comes back, and nobody but Fields who does come back is guaranteed a starting job except for maybe a couple of guys in the secondary.

Trade the #1 pick to a team for 4-6 picks (for example if it was Seattle, two 1s and two 2s this year, maybe a 2024 pick as well). Trade down the #56 pick they got for Roquan for a bunch of 3s and 4s, you may have to trade down multiple times there. Pick a backup QB in that range.

Ideally, they end up at the end of draft day with a top 5 pick, another mid-1st (15-19), two 2nds, three 3rds, four 4ths, and their usual carousel of 5ths-6ths-7ths. And Chase Claypool, for whatever that actually ends up being worth.

The draft day value chart innovated by Jimmy Johnson back in the day equates the overall #1 to roughly #5 + #28 + #58 + #86 + #102 + #112. And that doesn't account for the initial desperation by teams in the top 10 draft positions to grab "the quarterback." So figure that they can squeeze some additional picks or starting players (where the Bears have silly cap room) out of desperate teams.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2023 8:26 pm 
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you grab the best quarterback and if fields has a mediocre year you have options. a top prospect spending his first year on the bench isnt ideal for ratings but a power move for a team.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2023 10:15 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
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good dolphin wrote:

Build the lines on both sides of the ball and there will be an immediate transformation.

Yep priority has to be the lines on both sides, LBs and WRs.

They can be way different next year with a few additions.
Agree. Bears absolutely can and should be looking to upgrade at TE as well.

I'm not going to throw bouquets at an NFL tight end who manages to catch passes now and then in the red zone. Kmet is average at best and gd's fixation on him is only because of Notre Dame. If Kmet went to some PAC10 or SEC school, dolphin would be MF'ing him multiple times a game.


I can (and did last year) make my case with stats. Since then, he increased his TD, YPC, catch percentage, longest catch, first down percentage, etc. The only thing that held him back this year was Fields horrible start. You can trace Fields ascenscion to him finding Kmet and for good reason as he had a 105 QBR when throwing to Kmet.

I don't think you know what a top 16 TE looks like. His numbers compare very favorably to Dalton Schultz, David Njoko, Tyler Higbee, etc. Everyone responded, "what about the TD?", last year when I made my analysis. This year he tied for third among TE in TD.


Schultz was injured for 4 or 5 games this season. Kmet's receptions and yards dropped this season despite being Fields' favorite target.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:07 am 
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Nas wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
RFDC wrote:
good dolphin wrote:

Build the lines on both sides of the ball and there will be an immediate transformation.

Yep priority has to be the lines on both sides, LBs and WRs.

They can be way different next year with a few additions.
Agree. Bears absolutely can and should be looking to upgrade at TE as well.

I'm not going to throw bouquets at an NFL tight end who manages to catch passes now and then in the red zone. Kmet is average at best and gd's fixation on him is only because of Notre Dame. If Kmet went to some PAC10 or SEC school, dolphin would be MF'ing him multiple times a game.


I can (and did last year) make my case with stats. Since then, he increased his TD, YPC, catch percentage, longest catch, first down percentage, etc. The only thing that held him back this year was Fields horrible start. You can trace Fields ascenscion to him finding Kmet and for good reason as he had a 105 QBR when throwing to Kmet.

I don't think you know what a top 16 TE looks like. His numbers compare very favorably to Dalton Schultz, David Njoko, Tyler Higbee, etc. Everyone responded, "what about the TD?", last year when I made my analysis. This year he tied for third among TE in TD.


Schultz was injured for 4 or 5 games this season. Kmet's receptions and yards dropped this season despite being Fields' favorite target.


Stop being silly. The reason his receptions and yards dropped is because his targets dropped from 93 to 69 (69, nice). At the same time, his receptions only dropped by 10 and his yardage only went down by 68 yards. He caught a greater percentage of the balls thrown his way this year (72.5%), cut his drops almost in half, increased his yards per catch by almost a yard, and increased his td from 0 to 7. Another thing people used to rag on him for was getting tackled easily. His YAC increased substantially. And all of this really passed the eye test. He looked like a better player. I don't have the numbers on his separation this year but he looked a lot more open.

This is all from a guy still developing. I'm expecting bigger things from him next year

Dalton Shultz missed two games. He still got more targets and did less with them.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:36 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
Nas wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
RFDC wrote:
good dolphin wrote:

Build the lines on both sides of the ball and there will be an immediate transformation.

Yep priority has to be the lines on both sides, LBs and WRs.

They can be way different next year with a few additions.
Agree. Bears absolutely can and should be looking to upgrade at TE as well.

I'm not going to throw bouquets at an NFL tight end who manages to catch passes now and then in the red zone. Kmet is average at best and gd's fixation on him is only because of Notre Dame. If Kmet went to some PAC10 or SEC school, dolphin would be MF'ing him multiple times a game.


I can (and did last year) make my case with stats. Since then, he increased his TD, YPC, catch percentage, longest catch, first down percentage, etc. The only thing that held him back this year was Fields horrible start. You can trace Fields ascenscion to him finding Kmet and for good reason as he had a 105 QBR when throwing to Kmet.

I don't think you know what a top 16 TE looks like. His numbers compare very favorably to Dalton Schultz, David Njoko, Tyler Higbee, etc. Everyone responded, "what about the TD?", last year when I made my analysis. This year he tied for third among TE in TD.


Schultz was injured for 4 or 5 games this season. Kmet's receptions and yards dropped this season despite being Fields' favorite target.


Stop being silly. The reason his receptions and yards dropped is because his targets dropped from 93 to 69 (69, nice). At the same time, his receptions only dropped by 10 and his yardage only went down by 68 yards. He caught a greater percentage of the balls thrown his way this year (72.5%), cut his drops almost in half, increased his yards per catch by almost a yard, and increased his td from 0 to 7. Another thing people used to rag on him for was getting tackled easily. His YAC increased substantially. And all of this really passed the eye test. He looked like a better player. I don't have the numbers on his separation this year but he looked a lot more open.

This is all from a guy still developing. I'm expecting bigger things from him next year

Dalton Shultz missed two games. He still got more targets and did less with them.


I'm not down on Kmet. I thought he improved a lot as a football player and a receiver. I just wouldn't get excited about him yet based on how he was used after Week 8. I don't know if that is sustainable if your quarterback is targeting receivers. In some games, a 1/3 or more of Fields' attempts and completions went to Kmet.

You're right, Schultz missed 2 games with a knee injury. He was essentially a decoy/blocker in 2 games after he returned.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:56 am 
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I don't think Kmet, even at his best, is one of those top 5 elite TE making a huge impact each week.

I think he is a top 15 good starter with an occasionally great game.

I'm all for getting even more talent in the TE room. There are some nice players in free agency.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:56 am 
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IkeSouth wrote:
you grab the best quarterback and if fields has a mediocre year you have options. a top prospect spending his first year on the bench isnt ideal for ratings but a power move for a team.

2019 QB Draft Class. Any of these names scream elite QB better than Justin Fields?
Not all draft classes have a legit #1 starting QB. That drafting philosophy doesn't always work. If Poles drafts a QB....he better be damn sure it's a legitimate starting QB. Not gonna happen this year. Fields has a lot to prove, but he has not proven himself out of a job yet, either.
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Dwayne Haskins
Drew Lock
Will Grier
Ryan Finley
Jarrett Stidham
Easton Stick
Clayton Thorson
Gardner Minshew
Trace McSorley

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2023 5:07 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
I can (and did last year) make my case with stats.
And I debunked them last year.

As stated, I am not going to give an NFL TE credit for catching passes in the red zone. That is part of his job. The Bears can and should do better at TE.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2023 5:40 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
I can (and did last year) make my case with stats.
And I debunked them last year.

As stated, I am not going to give an NFL TE credit for catching passes in the red zone. That is part of his job. The Bears can and should do better at TE.


No you didn't and your argument looks even worse this year.

Poles was asked today what blue chip players he has on the roster. The one and only person he said was Cole Kmet

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2023 5:51 pm 
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My argument now is that the Bears should look to upgrade at TE if possible. Unless you have Kittle or Kelce, not sure how saying that is a bad thing. Kmet improved from last year to this year. Again, not going to praise a guy who literally had nowhere to go but up. I'm glad he was better this year, but I don't think he will ever be anything better than a middle of the road tight end. Bears should look to upgrade from him and absolutely not sign him to an extension other than a one year prove it deal.

Kmet will always get the benefit from you because of his alma mater. We'll have to agree to disagree.

If Poles really believes Kmet to be one best and sought after tight ends in the NFL, as Bears fans we are in serious trouble.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2023 8:57 pm 
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What is with the fascination about Kmet? He's just a guy. There is nothing special there.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:08 pm 
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Darkside wrote:
What is with the fascination about Kmet? He's just a guy. There is nothing special there.

I agree, which is why I’ve argued they should take a hard look at Michael Mayer at 1/1.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:35 pm 
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Darkside wrote:
What is with the fascination about Kmet? He's just a guy. There is nothing special there.


Guys are in love with hypothetical Kmet.

More seriously, I think Dolphin's point is there are only like three star TEs in the league, maybe four if you include the Philly guy, and then a vast sea of mediocrity at the position. Kmet seems to be somewhat high end within that sea of mediocrity I guess, at least as a pass catcher.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2023 7:59 am 
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BigW72 wrote:
Not all draft classes have a legit #1 starting QB. That drafting philosophy doesn't always work.


I couldn’t believe it when Boomer Esiason mentioned he was the first QB drafted in 1984…with the 38th pick. Seems unfathomable nowadays.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2023 8:21 am 
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BigW72 wrote:
IkeSouth wrote:
you grab the best quarterback and if fields has a mediocre year you have options. a top prospect spending his first year on the bench isnt ideal for ratings but a power move for a team.

2019 QB Draft Class. Any of these names scream elite QB better than Justin Fields?
Not all draft classes have a legit #1 starting QB. That drafting philosophy doesn't always work. If Poles drafts a QB....he better be damn sure it's a legitimate starting QB. Not gonna happen this year. Fields has a lot to prove, but he has not proven himself out of a job yet, either.
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Dwayne Haskins
Drew Lock
Will Grier
Ryan Finley
Jarrett Stidham
Easton Stick
Clayton Thorson
Gardner Minshew
Trace McSorley

Jones had a pretty nice year all things considered. I wouldn't trade him to the bears for fields.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2023 9:04 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
My argument now is that the Bears should look to upgrade at TE if possible. Unless you have Kittle or Kelce, not sure how saying that is a bad thing. Kmet improved from last year to this year. Again, not going to praise a guy who literally had nowhere to go but up. I'm glad he was better this year, but I don't think he will ever be anything better than a middle of the road tight end. Bears should look to upgrade from him and absolutely not sign him to an extension other than a one year prove it deal.

Kmet will always get the benefit from you because of his alma mater. We'll have to agree to disagree.

If Poles really believes Kmet to be one best and sought after tight ends in the NFL, as Bears fans we are in serious trouble.


I don't know where you are getting that I'm a huge green and gold guy. I'm not Irish. I'm not from the South Side. I didn't go there. I think the campus is great and I love going there once a year for a football game if someone gives me tickets.

I have said, and it might even be in this thread, that they should add talent to the TE room. They should always be striving to acquire one of those elite types. It's not really a question of upgrading FROM him. Teams use multiple TE plays every game and carry 3 on the roster. Upgrade the room, including him. If you have a TE group with Cole Kmet and someone better than Cole Kmet, you have a very good TE group.

If by middle of the road you mean a top 16 TE in the league, we are on the same page.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2023 9:07 am 
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BigW72 wrote:
2019 QB Draft Class. Any of these names scream elite QB better than Justin Fields?

Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Dwayne Haskins
Drew Lock
Will Grier
Ryan Finley
Jarrett Stidham
Easton Stick
Clayton Thorson
Gardner Minshew
Trace McSorley


DYAR Rank
-------------------
Dan Jones 396
GMinshew 133
KylMurray 120
JaStidham 102
D Haskins 000
McSorley -244
...
...
....
......
............
................
.................
..................
...................
..................
..................
..................
JusFields -541

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2022


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2023 9:21 am 
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man of few opinions wrote:
BigW72 wrote:
IkeSouth wrote:
you grab the best quarterback and if fields has a mediocre year you have options. a top prospect spending his first year on the bench isnt ideal for ratings but a power move for a team.

2019 QB Draft Class. Any of these names scream elite QB better than Justin Fields?
Not all draft classes have a legit #1 starting QB. That drafting philosophy doesn't always work. If Poles drafts a QB....he better be damn sure it's a legitimate starting QB. Not gonna happen this year. Fields has a lot to prove, but he has not proven himself out of a job yet, either.
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Dwayne Haskins
Drew Lock
Will Grier
Ryan Finley
Jarrett Stidham
Easton Stick
Clayton Thorson
Gardner Minshew
Trace McSorley

Jones had a pretty nice year all things considered. I wouldn't trade him to the bears for fields.

I like Daniel Jones, as well. My point is, there are better options with the number one overall pack or any other high first rounder.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2023 9:36 am 
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I think in almost all cases, teams would be better off taking the best player available in the position they are slotted then constantly chasing the holy grail of the "elite quarterback". If you need a QB, then create a draft strategy that allows you to take a QB that will be available to you where you draft whether it be in the first round or later. Trading multiple picks across multiple years to get into the top 5 to take a QB is franchise suicide.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2023 1:53 pm 
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man of few opinions wrote:
I think in almost all cases, teams would be better off taking the best player available in the position they are slotted then constantly chasing the holy grail of the "elite quarterback". If you need a QB, then create a draft strategy that allows you to take a QB that will be available to you where you draft whether it be in the first round or later. Trading multiple picks across multiple years to get into the top 5 to take a QB is franchise suicide.

There are now three ways to win a Super Bowl:
1) Great QB play on a rookie/cheap deal.
2) HOF QB.
3) Have Joe Flacco

This gets you pretty much back to Brad Johnson in 2002, then Trent Dilfer in 2000, and then Jeff Hostetler in 1990.

That's why QBs go so high. It's a lottery pick for either 1 or 2 or 3.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2023 1:57 pm 
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Brick wrote:
man of few opinions wrote:
I think in almost all cases, teams would be better off taking the best player available in the position they are slotted then constantly chasing the holy grail of the "elite quarterback". If you need a QB, then create a draft strategy that allows you to take a QB that will be available to you where you draft whether it be in the first round or later. Trading multiple picks across multiple years to get into the top 5 to take a QB is franchise suicide.

There are now three ways to win a Super Bowl:
1) Great QB play on a rookie/cheap deal.
2) HOF QB.
3) Have Joe Flacco

This gets you pretty much back to Brad Johnson in 2002, then Trent Dilfer in 2000, and then Jeff Hostetler in 1990.

That's why QBs go so high. It's a lottery pick for either 1 or 2 or 3.


Flacco fits #1.

I think it's only 2.
1. Tom Brady giving his team a discount
2. Quarterback on their rookie contract

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2023 1:58 pm 
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Flacco fits no statement that includes the word "great"

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2023 2:00 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
Flacco fits no statement that includes the word "great"


His playoff run was absolutely great.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2023 2:01 pm 
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Nas wrote:
Brick wrote:
man of few opinions wrote:
I think in almost all cases, teams would be better off taking the best player available in the position they are slotted then constantly chasing the holy grail of the "elite quarterback". If you need a QB, then create a draft strategy that allows you to take a QB that will be available to you where you draft whether it be in the first round or later. Trading multiple picks across multiple years to get into the top 5 to take a QB is franchise suicide.

There are now three ways to win a Super Bowl:
1) Great QB play on a rookie/cheap deal.
2) HOF QB.
3) Have Joe Flacco

This gets you pretty much back to Brad Johnson in 2002, then Trent Dilfer in 2000, and then Jeff Hostetler in 1990.

That's why QBs go so high. It's a lottery pick for either 1 or 2 or 3.


Flacco fits #1.

I think it's only 2.
1. Tom Brady giving his team a discount
2. Quarterback on their rookie contract

Both of these require strong supporting talent. The Tom Brady of 2022 and onward cannot will his team to a Super Bowl. In regards to HOF Quarterback.....the 2015-16 Peyton Manning won because of his supporting cast. He was pretty washed up at that point.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2023 2:02 pm 
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Brick wrote:
man of few opinions wrote:
I think in almost all cases, teams would be better off taking the best player available in the position they are slotted then constantly chasing the holy grail of the "elite quarterback". If you need a QB, then create a draft strategy that allows you to take a QB that will be available to you where you draft whether it be in the first round or later. Trading multiple picks across multiple years to get into the top 5 to take a QB is franchise suicide.

There are now three ways to win a Super Bowl:
1) Great QB play on a rookie/cheap deal.
2) HOF QB.
3) Have Joe Flacco

This gets you pretty much back to Brad Johnson in 2002, then Trent Dilfer in 2000, and then Jeff Hostetler in 1990.

That's why QBs go so high. It's a lottery pick for either 1 or 2 or 3.


#3 disguises that you need to complement your Flacco with an elite run game and defense.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2023 2:03 pm 
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Brick wrote:
man of few opinions wrote:
I think in almost all cases, teams would be better off taking the best player available in the position they are slotted then constantly chasing the holy grail of the "elite quarterback". If you need a QB, then create a draft strategy that allows you to take a QB that will be available to you where you draft whether it be in the first round or later. Trading multiple picks across multiple years to get into the top 5 to take a QB is franchise suicide.

There are now three ways to win a Super Bowl:
1) Great QB play on a rookie/cheap deal.
2) HOF QB.
3) Have Joe Flacco

This gets you pretty much back to Brad Johnson in 2002, then Trent Dilfer in 2000, and then Jeff Hostetler in 1990.

That's why QBs go so high. It's a lottery pick for either 1 or 2 or 3.
So Matthew Stafford is going to Canton? Poor FF

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2023 2:04 pm 
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Nas wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Flacco fits no statement that includes the word "great"


His playoff run was absolutely great.

1 playoff run does make a QB considered Great.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2023 2:11 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
Nas wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Flacco fits no statement that includes the word "great"


His playoff run was absolutely great.

1 playoff run does make a QB considered Great.


I thought Rick's argument was "great play" on a rookie deal. Of course, Flacco wasn't a great quarterback.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2023 2:39 pm 
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Nas wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Nas wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Flacco fits no statement that includes the word "great"


His playoff run was absolutely great.

1 playoff run does make a QB considered Great.


I thought Rick's argument was "great play" on a rookie deal. Of course, Flacco wasn't a great quarterback.

Joe Flacco is an enigma so he gets his own category. One of the all time great playoffs and an average season.

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