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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:37 pm 
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City of Fools wrote:
How many teams do you really think? Only 3 teams with 3+ players with 30 HR. Who? Philadelphia, Florida and the White Sox. Not a big majority, eh? Not on the list? Boston (1), L.A. Dodgers (1), Milwaukee (2), Tampa Bay (1), and L.A. Angels (1). Hmmm...

Ok. Of 8 playoff teams, 2 had 3 guys with 30+ homeruns, another had 2 guys with 30+, and one had no guys with 30+ homeruns. And we all know what team that is.

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Saying he sucked no more than the rest of the guys is not a correct descriptive statement. He was far better than any other guy out there for the Cubs. And this series is the only one that counted for anything.

Far better? He had 6 hits, 2 runs, and no RBIs. He had by far the best batting average, but you know, tallest midget award. He was relatively better than the pile of hot garbage that was the rest of the Cubs' lineup, but unless your idea of a 3-hitter is a guy that grounds into more DP's than he drives in runs, he sucked too.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:44 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Lee was just good enough to get you beat.


I'm no big fan of Lee but that statement doesn't even make sense.

If everybody would have hit .500, the Cubs would have won the series.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:57 pm 
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MattInTheCrown wrote:
Ok. Of 8 playoff teams, 2 had 3 guys with 30+ homeruns, another had 2 guys with 30+, and one had no guys with 30+ homeruns. And we all know what team that is.

I can't believe you're continuing this argument. I'll take your "ok" as a concession that you were misstating things in the first place. So on to your point. I see only Philadelphia remaining when the NLCS is done...so you're right on the NL side, but on the AL side, I see anyone but the White Sox...so you've got 3 teams with ONE 30 HR hitter on each team left in the AL. I'd say we should wait till the WS to call this, but I'm pretty comfortable with saying one 30 HR hitter in this steroid reduced baseball we now have is enough. Soriano just missed the mark with 29, btw and he was a large part of the Cubs collapse. I'll resurect this thread come the WS.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:01 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Lee was just good enough to get you beat.

I'm no big fan of Lee but that statement doesn't even make sense.

If everybody would have hit .500, the Cubs would have won the series.

Not if they made an out every time someone was on, and got out every time the bases were empty. Think about it; that's possible simply by everyone getting a hit every other time with a hit-out-hit-out sequence, with just a couple DP's mixed in. And that's more or less what Lee did.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:04 pm 
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City of Fools wrote:
MattInTheCrown wrote:
Ok. Of 8 playoff teams, 2 had 3 guys with 30+ homeruns, another had 2 guys with 30+, and one had no guys with 30+ homeruns. And we all know what team that is.

I can't believe you're continuing this argument. I'll take your "ok" as a concession that you were misstating things in the first place.

What did I misstate, specifically?

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So on to your point. I see only Philadelphia remaining when the NLCS is done...so you're right on the NL side, but on the AL side, I see anyone but the White Sox...so you've got 3 teams with ONE 30 HR hitter on each team left in the AL. I'd say we should wait till the WS to call this, but I'm pretty comfortable with saying one 30 HR hitter in this steroid reduced baseball we now have is enough. Soriano just missed the mark with 29, btw and he was a large part of the Cubs collapse. I'll resurect this thread come the WS.

That's how it played out in this one particular postseason. The bottom line is, 3 teams had 3 guys with 30 homeruns, and 2 of them made the playoffs. Of the playoff teams, only one didn't have anyone with 30 homeruns: the Cubs.

You are wrong. The Cubs need more power.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:08 pm 
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MattInTheCrown wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Lee was just good enough to get you beat.

I'm no big fan of Lee but that statement doesn't even make sense.

If everybody would have hit .500, the Cubs would have won the series.

Not if they made an out every time someone was on, and got out every time the bases were empty.

huh? that would be every time, wouldn't it?


Lee left 2 on base. No more than anyone else.

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Last edited by City of Fools on Mon Oct 06, 2008 6:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:10 pm 
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It's strange that you guys are having this argument because yesterday a friend of mine told be about a statistical analysis he did for a class in college regarding baseball. They researched roughly 10 stats (pitching and hitting) for the last 30 years to determine which stat could most closely be associated with a winning team. Oddly enough, home runs was the #1. Not sure what that means, but I think home runs are pretty good.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:16 pm 
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MattInTheCrown wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Lee was just good enough to get you beat.

I'm no big fan of Lee but that statement doesn't even make sense.

If everybody would have hit .500, the Cubs would have won the series.

Not if they made an out every time someone was on, and got out every time the bases were empty. Think about it; that's possible simply by everyone getting a hit every other time with a hit-out-hit-out sequence, with just a couple DP's mixed in. And that's more or less what Lee did.


Give me 8 guys that hit .535 and I'd take my chances.

If we aren't productive from that many hits, then I'd say we just aren't very lucky.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:17 pm 
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Don't take this the wrong way coming from a Sox fan, but here is what happened in my opinion. I don't want to pretend I'm an expert on the Cubs but did watch enough of them since the fiance is a Cubs fan.

1) "The curse" is real. It isn't an actual curse, but it is thought of by the players. The pressure that it adds does make a difference. From the first game of the first series, the whole Cubs team looked very tight.
2) Wrigley Field is a different ballpark in October. Swings that were home runs in July aren't in colder weather. It's the same reason why Cubs coaches talk about how cold it is in April and that things will get better once it gets warmer.
3) Soriano is way too streaky. The reason he's not a leadoff hitter is because he's not consistent. You want a leadoff hitter who is a little more consistent.
4) 5 game series are terrible for the better team. You lose the first game at home, and you are playing catchup all series. It's not a coincidence that the team that wins game 1 wins nearly all the series. If 2 pitchers get hot, it's over as you'll be facing them 4/5 games.
5) Teams that clinch early are at a major disadvantage. The Angels are finding the same thing out. It's hard to turn it on after not playing meaningful games.

The Cubs have to improve for next year, but they should be right there again. There are no easy answers, but they have tons of talent and really it comes down to getting hot at the right time. They didn't do it this year and it sucks that 3 games can ruin what was a great season.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:26 pm 
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I predict that, in much the same way the NLCS went from 5 to 7 games in 1985 due to the Cubs collapse in San Diego, we may see a change in the rule book yet again to have the MLB division series go to 7 games because of the crying of Cub fans that it is unfair.

MLB would be happy to $ee more playoff games anyway.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:30 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I predict that, in much the same way the NLCS went from 5 to 7 games in 1985 due to the Cubs collapse in San Diego, we may see a change in the rule book yet again to have the MLB division series go to 7 games because of the crying of Cub fans that it is unfair.

MLB would be happy to $ee more playoff games anyway.

I wonder if MLB would make stealing bases illegal if enough White Sox fans cried about it.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:32 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I wonder if MLB would make stealing bases illegal if enough White Sox fans cried about it.


Who are the White Sox?

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:34 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I wonder if MLB would make stealing bases illegal if enough White Sox fans cried about it.


Who are the White Sox?

Don't ask me. I'm in this forum to talk about the Chicago Rush.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 6:11 pm 
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WestmontMike wrote:
It's strange that you guys are having this argument because yesterday a friend of mine told be about a statistical analysis he did for a class in college regarding baseball. They researched roughly 10 stats (pitching and hitting) for the last 30 years to determine which stat could most closely be associated with a winning team. Oddly enough, home runs was the #1. Not sure what that means, but I think home runs are pretty good.

that to me is exceedingly odd, but I guess there's not much challenging it. I'd be interested which stats were used besides HR...and what era it covered...Sox are about to be eliminated (prototipical HR heavy team), and the Phillies may get a good series from the Dodgers...could end up with no teams with more than one player with 30+ HR...

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 7:14 pm 
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Quote:
I predict that, in much the same way the NLCS went from 5 to 7 games in 1985 due to the Cubs collapse in San Diego, we may see a change in the rule book yet again to have the MLB division series go to 7 games because of the crying of Cub fans that it is unfair.


why shouldn't they, the NBA playoffs "sweet 16" are 7 game series, after 81 games, while MLB "quarter-finals" after 162 games is only 5 games. Why is that? seems to be going the wrong direction, can someone explain this to me? this has nothing to do with the Chubs loyalty I am just curious as Chubs would have got swept in 4. I guess history holds strong bars no matter how stupid they are.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 12:01 am 
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MattInTheCrown wrote:
City of Fools wrote:
I don't know that they need more power.

They definitely need more power. How many teams had 3+ guys with 30 homeruns? Shit, our top HR guy would be a mediocre HR guy on the south side. Having two or three guys with 15-30 home runs as your "power" is simply not getting it done.

Matt in the Crown wrote:
What did I misstate, specifically?

you made it sound as though there was a virtual majority of teams with 3+ guys with 30 HRs. I proved you wrong, there are only 3 out of the entire league, and you shifted arguments to 1 out of the four teams remaining having 3 players hitting 30 HRS...

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Last edited by City of Fools on Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:23 am 
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City of Fools wrote:
MattInTheCrown wrote:
City of Fools wrote:
I don't know that they need more power.

They definitely need more power. How many teams had 3+ guys with 30 homeruns? Shit, our top HR guy would be a mediocre HR guy on the south side. Having two or three guys with 15-30 home runs as your "power" is simply not getting it done.

Matt in the Crown wrote:
What did I misstate, specifically?

you made it sound as though there was a virtual majority of teams with 3+ guys with 30 HRs.

No I didn't. You misinterpreted what I plainly wrote.

Quote:
I proved you wrong, there are only 3 out of the entire league, and you shifted arguments to 1 out of the four teams remaining having 3 players hitting 30 HRS...

My point was we don't have 1, where several teams have 3. Just think about it for a minute: we don't have a single guy with 30 home runs. Thats. Not. Getting. It. Done.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:58 am 
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City of Fools wrote:
WestmontMike wrote:
It's strange that you guys are having this argument because yesterday a friend of mine told be about a statistical analysis he did for a class in college regarding baseball. They researched roughly 10 stats (pitching and hitting) for the last 30 years to determine which stat could most closely be associated with a winning team. Oddly enough, home runs was the #1. Not sure what that means, but I think home runs are pretty good.

that to me is exceedingly odd, but I guess there's not much challenging it. I'd be interested which stats were used besides HR...and what era it covered...Sox are about to be eliminated (prototipical HR heavy team), and the Phillies may get a good series from the Dodgers...could end up with no teams with more than one player with 30+ HR...


It covered the past 30 years (study was done in '04). I'm not positive on every stat used but I know most of them: HR, triples, doubles, avg., steals, era, strikeouts, whip.
And it was a study on # of wins, not # of world series wins. I'm not sure how # of players with 30 HRs would matter since a team could just as easily have 8 players with 25 HRs or something like that OR there could be 4 guys on a team with 30 HRs and the rest of the lineup combines for 20. It's team stats, not individual.
I haven't even seen this analysis but I'd guess it would have some kind of moronic deduction that, in the long run, a team that hits a high amount of home runs inevitably scores a high amount of runs. Sounds like an overly simplistic view of it, but since ERA doesn't show up until #5 on the list, it appears scoring lots of runs trump a good pitching staff. I'm sure if this was done 1 year at a time you'd get different results each year...sometimes pitching, sometimes hitting...but over a 30 stretch covering regular season games, and only looking at each stat individually, it's not surprising that more home runs = more runs = more wins.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 11:02 am 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I'd say in ranking the chokes, this is way down there.

1. The 1984 choke. No question.
Let me ask you somethin'. Dontfademe.com...OK.
2. The 2003 choke.
3. This choke. At least the others got to take a bite of something.

I heard a caller on M&H yesterday saying that he had a bet with one of his friends saying that this year was more painful than 2003. IMO, no way. 2003 was much more painful than this year.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 11:03 am 
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City of Fools wrote:
did anyone else hit .545? Go 6-11? No. Ok then. Soriano and Ramierez had chances for useless hits too. They didn't hit at all. Can't figure you out Frank, you're more intelligent than this. Who cares when he got his hits when everyone else DIDN'T HIT! He was the best offensive player for the Cubs in the series. Period.

Tallest midget award.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 11:12 am 
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Darren - Tinley Park wrote:
City of Fools wrote:
did anyone else hit .545? Go 6-11? No. Ok then. Soriano and Ramierez had chances for useless hits too. They didn't hit at all. Can't figure you out Frank, you're more intelligent than this. Who cares when he got his hits when everyone else DIDN'T HIT! He was the best offensive player for the Cubs in the series. Period.

Tallest midget award.


I don't see how 6-11, 1 DP and 2 LOB is tallest midget. If everyone does that, we're not having this conversation.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 11:17 am 
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City of Fools wrote:
Darren - Tinley Park wrote:
City of Fools wrote:
did anyone else hit .545? Go 6-11? No. Ok then. Soriano and Ramierez had chances for useless hits too. They didn't hit at all. Can't figure you out Frank, you're more intelligent than this. Who cares when he got his hits when everyone else DIDN'T HIT! He was the best offensive player for the Cubs in the series. Period.

Tallest midget award.


I don't see how 6-11, 1 DP and 2 LOB is tallest midget. If everyone does that, we're not having this conversation.

But everyone didn't do that. Sure, he had the best stats, but it would have meant more had the rest of the team showed up offensively.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 11:26 am 
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MattInTheCrown wrote:
My point was we don't have 1, where several teams have 3. Just think about it for a minute: we don't have a single guy with 30 home runs. Thats. Not. Getting. It. Done.

Top 5 HR hitters from the remaining playoff teams compared to the Cubs:
Cubs: Soriano 29, Ramirez 27, Soto 23, DeRosa 21, Lee 20. Top 5 total: 120
Rays: Pena 31, Longoria 27, Hinske 20, Gross 13, Zorbist 12. Top 5 total: 103
Red Sox: Bay 31, Youkilis 29, Ortiz 23, Drew 19, Lowell 17. Top 5 total: 119
Dodgers: Ramierez 37, Blake 21, Eithier 20, Kemp 18, Loney 13. Top 5 Total: 109
Phillies: Howard 48, Burrell 33, Utley 33, Werth 24, Victorino 14. Top 5 total: 152

So the Cubs are comparable to everybody but the Phillies when comparing the top 5 HR hitters on each team. When you look at overall season totals, the Cubs rank 8th in total home runs. The only remaining playoff team ahead of them is...the Phillies. The list:
White Sox, Phillies, Marlins, Tigers, Brewers, Rangers, Reds. If the Phillies win the world series, I think you'll have made a good point. If anyone else wins it, then I think my point stands. They have enough home runs. They need more good contact hitters from the left side. Even one more would change the whole complexion of the team.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 3:52 pm 
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Irregardless of the Cubs being in the post-season or not, it is idiotic for the first round series to be five games. They need to change it. The Cubs have nothing to do with the price of tea in China in this case.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 7:30 pm 
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Death To McCaskey wrote:
Irregardless of the Cubs being in the post-season or not, it is idiotic for the first round series to be five games. They need to change it. The Cubs have nothing to do with the price of tea in China in this case.


it's regardless or it's not. there is no irregardless. please, please don't ever use that word again.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 10:02 pm 
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Matt, I'll cede game one with your homerun argument based on tonight...we'll see for the rest of the series...

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:17 am 
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City of Fools wrote:
MattInTheCrown wrote:
My point was we don't have 1, where several teams have 3. Just think about it for a minute: we don't have a single guy with 30 home runs. Thats. Not. Getting. It. Done.

Top 5 HR hitters from the remaining playoff teams compared to the Cubs:
Cubs: Soriano 29, Ramirez 27, Soto 23, DeRosa 21, Lee 20. Top 5 total: 120
Rays: Pena 31, Longoria 27, Hinske 20, Gross 13, Zorbist 12. Top 5 total: 103
Red Sox: Bay 31, Youkilis 29, Ortiz 23, Drew 19, Lowell 17. Top 5 total: 119
Dodgers: Ramierez 37, Blake 21, Eithier 20, Kemp 18, Loney 13. Top 5 Total: 109
Phillies: Howard 48, Burrell 33, Utley 33, Werth 24, Victorino 14. Top 5 total: 152

So the Cubs are comparable to everybody but the Phillies when comparing the top 5 HR hitters on each team. When you look at overall season totals, the Cubs rank 8th in total home runs. The only remaining playoff team ahead of them is...the Phillies. The list:
White Sox, Phillies, Marlins, Tigers, Brewers, Rangers, Reds. If the Phillies win the world series, I think you'll have made a good point. If anyone else wins it, then I think my point stands. They have enough home runs. They need more good contact hitters from the left side. Even one more would change the whole complexion of the team.

And how many homeruns have these big bats knocked out of the park in the last two playoff series?

Their opponents?

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:58 am 
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so the Cubs haven't hit HR's in the playoffs. In the regular season they hit the 8th most HR's in both leagues. Statistically in the regular season (162 games) the Cubs hit more homeruns than the Rays and less than the Phillies. We'll see how the WS plays out.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 11:50 pm 
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The Rays have 22 HR so far this postseason.

The Cubs had 23 HR combined from the 1989, 1998, 2003, 2007, and 2008 postseasons.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 11:59 pm 
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I have finally started to get over this season.

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