Some slightly encouraging news for you on the Pennsylvania bet...

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

I hadn't heard James Carville's quote before, but that fits with my picture of Pa. having lived in that state for 7 years. Although I wouldn't carve out Pittsburgh as being different from Alabama. Pittsburgh is a lot more like Birmingham than Philly, and I'm not just talking about the two cities being the historic center of the steel industry in their regions. That's essentially why I made that bet in the first place. I'm counting on the redneck racist vote to make McCain a winner in Pa. Yes...I think McCain is running against Wright and Ayers rather than on the economy. And in that state, such a strategy could win.

By the way, where can I buy an Iron City beer in the Chicago area anyway?

Perhaps I'm only seeing things through my blue colored glasses, but does anyone else find McCain banking on turning Pennsylvania as a horrible political move?

I think he is sort of running out of moves at this point. He needs to sweep every single state that is up for grabs, and is running into cash flow issues as well as a lack of time left to campaign. He's going to have to hit an eight state parlay, and unfortunately for him, the bookmaker called the voting public has the line in favor of the other guy. If I were him, I would tell the RNC to save their money for the Senate races that are close to at least try to maintain control there. The GOP doesn't want the Dems to end up with 60 seats, because then they'll be able to pass through almost anything Obama wants.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

I find it amazing that we are even talking about the possiblility of the Dems ending up with a 60/40 majority...I would have never imagined that possible, even only a few months ago.

60/40 is probably a semi-longshot, but its more like Northwestern @ Penn State than Duke @ Alabama. The webmaster from electoral-vote.com is pushing his pro-dem theory that if Obama wins, he will try to get Specter on his cabinet to show that he can "reach across the aisle" to the other side. Conveniently, the governor of PA is a democrat, and could then appoint a democrat to fill the empty interim seat in the senate.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

I've been saying all along the "Bradley Effect" will lead to a McCain win. It's time to break this down and see if my hypothesis still works.

There are several states in which the polls have Obama ahead by 5-10 points and the pundits are already putting those in the Obama camp.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... ege_update

Here is the breakdown, with candidates' latest poll lead in each state in parentheses:
Tossup:Florida (M1), Missouri (O5), North Carolina (O3), Nevada (O5), Ohio (M2)
Leans Dem: Colorado (O5), New Hampshire (O10), Virginia (O10)
Likely Dem: Conn (O17), Iowa (O8), Maine (O5), Michigan (O16), Minnesota (O7), New Jersey (O8), New Mexico (O13), Oregon (O13), Pennsylvania (O13), Washington (10), Wisconsin (10)

So if my hypothesis comes to pass and people who will vote for McCain based largely on race are not currently reflected in the polls, then all the states where O has a 6% lead or less could still swing to M. If that happens, then McCain wins: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Colorado, and Maine.

Combined with all the other states already slated for McCain wins, that would give McCain 266 electoral votes, shy of the 270 needed. In this case, McCain would need one more state and the election truly could be decided by Virginia, which has been a solidly R state for years in presidential elections and is a bastion of conservatism. O is ahead by 10 there, but it would not surprise me to see a 10% swing on election day in Virginia, home to the Confederacy and in which the Confederacy still lives among rural Virginians.

Or it could be decided by a swing from the race-based voters in one of the other states in which O currently is ahead by 7-10. A win in any one of these states, other than Virginia, would also put McCain in the White House: New Hampshire, Minnesota, Iowa, New Jersey, Washington and Wisconsin.

Virginia seems more likely to go R than those states though. Under this scenario, McCain wins Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, and Maine...and gets 278 electoral votes and wins the presidency.

It ain't over til it's over.

I put in for the day after the election off at work today because I have this bad feeling it will be another allnighter...I hope I'm wrong...

Some offshore books don't even have odds for the election anymore.

Matchbook has:

Obama -800
McCain +780

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Here's an interesting prop on Matchbook:
Democrats less than 330 electoral votes: +200

More and more Obama. Recent polls show that North Dakota and Montana are a statistical tie, and those states should normally be easy McCain wins. Even in Arizona, Obama is gaining ground. At this point it looks like it will take some extreme Democratic faux pas to lose this election. Even given the "Bradley Effect", there are just too many states polling in favor of Obama. He's got an outside shot to take Georgia, FFS. I'm really interested to see what the polls show after the Obama infomercial... wonder how much effect that will have.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

Plus or minus betting isn't too hard...

If something is +320, that means you will bet $100 to win $320.

If something is -320, that means you will bet $320 to win $100.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

So at +200, it's a 2/1 payoff if Obama gets less than 330 electoral votes...or 60 more than he needs to win. That line is suggesting a rout. Recognize that these lines on the Matchbook exchange can be put up by anyone looking for someone to take the other side and don't necessarily reflect an oddsmaker setting "sharp" numbers. I'm looking into this one.

But can someone further explain the Bradley effect for me? I don't get why someone, even if they are the biggest racist alive, would need to lie to a pollster (face to face over the phone) about their choice of McCain in order to hide their racism. They're afraid if they say McCain, the pollster will accuse them of racism? So instead they say Obama? I don't get it.

I can see it happening in some kind of push polling: "A lot of racists will never vote for Obama, what's your stance?" But simply asking who someone's going to vote for? I don't get how racism isn't already accounted for in the polls.

I think if Obama doesn't win by as much as the polls indicate, it's just bad polling. The polls were way off last time, and both candidates were white. I think poor sampling, or poor adjustments of sampling due to faulty assumptions, are more likely than people fearing a pollster will detect their racism when they say the word McCain.

It's not really proven anyway, that that's why Bradley lost in the first place, is it?

Here is a decent explanation for you 24.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/165030
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

Thanks for the links C2C. It does make more sense to me now.

late-deciding voters tend to have moderate-to-conservative political opinions and that this may account in part for last-minute decision-makers breaking largely away from black candidates, who have generally been more liberal than their white opponents in the elections in question.

By contrast, in cases where the Bradley effect existed, including Bradley's race itself, the black candidate was as much or more experienced than the white opponent. So voters found it harder to excuse their racism and may have misstated their voting intention to pollsters as a result.

So I guess it can come into play, considering some voters might be completely honest when they tell pollsters they are leaning towards Obama, but at the last minute just can't overcome their prejudice and pull the lever for him. I can also see how the exit polls could be misleading, as it is easier to feel intimidated in person, as probably happened in 2004 when Bush voters may have felt maligned among the media and politicos.

right now at matchbook.com

McCain +142.5 electoral votes (+150)

I am all over this.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

thank goodness, no. One thing that I learned again in this election (for the umpteenth time) is that when you are trading on an exchange -- no matter what it is, day trading stocks, buying or selling puts, calls, options, stocks, in-game betting on sports, politics, whatever -- when you can take a profit, you do it. I could have cashed out when the odds had declined to -120 but I didn't. Got greedy and thought I'd get more. Instead of locking in a break even position or locking in a profit, I took it in the shorts. Fortunately, I didn't throw good money after bad and had the good sense to stay away from this losing bet too.

It's only money. And it's not like I'm unhappy I lost. Besides, I'll get it back this weekend on the gridiron.