One Post wrote:
The 2023 Penn State Nittany Lions are exhibit A why expanded playoffs are unnecessary. Unnecessary unless you are a TV exec or conference commissioner groveling for every last dollar.
In essentially every scenario of a 12 team playoff, Penn St would be comfortably in the bracket. This is a team that beat absolutely nobody of consequence (one top 25 victory) and had two shots at elite teams, one at home, and lost both.
Do we really need to see Penn St play anyone else to know they are not the best team in the country?
The regular season did a pretty convincing job of proving that Penn St is nowhere close to the best team in the country.
Well, they would likely be playing a road game against Georgia to avoid the rematch with OSU so those losses would simply need them to prove they could win @Georgia, and then beat Washington or Texas and then beat Alabama or Michigan.
I would say if they could beat Georgia, Texas, and Alabama they would be a deserving champion.
The flipside of your argument though is that this year we know that Georgia, FSU, and OSU are all clearly capable of winning the national title. Oregon may be too but they are just a terrible matchup with Washington.
Now, I do agree with you that an 8 team playoff would probably be better but that is less money and also you can't give the top 4 seeds a major advantage by giving them a bye. I think that is one of the primary things you ignore about the regular season mattering. The first round bye is a massive advantage in football. One less game and one less chance of injury.
Using the OSU/Michigan game:
The winner got a first round bye, and Oregon/Missouri in the semi-finals.
The loser got a first round game against Missouri/Ole Miss(avoiding the rematch with PSU), and Washington in the semi-finals if they make it there and the only reason it is that good is because both teams were undefeated going into that game. If OSU had even one loss prior they easily could have been going to Georgia to get blown out.
Ultimately, you are right that the road teams in the 9-12 range aren't as good as the top 4 teams but they also get a significantly harder path.