The draft is very hard. Barely up to the level of a crapshoot; even at the top of the draft. In general, it’s much more likely than not that the Bears top 10 picks are going to either be average or just fail, not become a major franchise-caliber player. Only 10% of top 10 picks become big-time, franchise-changing multiple All-Pro players, whereas just 51% of them even make one Pro Bowl, and 8.5% of them outright fail.

The safest selection in the top ten is a running back or a defensive back. Your worst odds are on quarterbacks and wide receivers. Every other position group is pretty close to the others in terms of the odds of finding that big-time player


The median draft pick for Hall of Fame quarterbacks is the 23rd pick. If you remove Brady (or Brees/Rodgers) the median becomes the 14th pick.

We are expecting our team to draft the future franchise QB. But the reality is that drafting a J.Burrow is a <1% chance deal, and the more likely outcome is that 9 of 10 draft picks will either be disappointing or have little impact for the team that drafts them.


Your best bet is to gain more first round draft picks by trading out of the #1 like Brick suggested. More picks equal more rolls of the dice to get that franchise-caliber player.

How about we keep Justin as a Taysom Hill specialist. Lock him in the locker room stall and when Daddy Flus wants him, Daddy Poles can unchain him and alert Daddy Getsy?

QBs taken 1/1 are generally solid NFL players. They don’t all turn into all-pros, but it’s still a reasonable bet that you’re going to get 5-10 years of stability at the position when you make that pick.

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I haven't watched Williams all that much, but isn't the concern that he's not really a pocket passer?

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You also have to factor in the Bears lack of QB development since Sid Luckman.

The Packers seem to have found the secret formula to drafting AND developing franchise QB. There is a point when luck is no longer a factor and you have to consider the process.

Drafting players is difficult at least in part because the scouting and evaluating part is the easy part. The more difficult part is developing the players that you drafted. How well players respond to coaching, and to a league where a player’s physical gifts are no longer a major advantage, are part of the factors that are difficult to assess pre-draft. How much work and discipline a player will exhibit after being handed millions can be an issue too.

Player development may also be affected by coaching ability, team culture, and fit in the particular scheme.

At what point in our lifetime have the Bears develop a franchise QB or WR? We have lots of MLB, DE and RB's. Our team culture and scheme has always been run the ball and play great defense. It's in the Bears DNA "Monsters of the Midway"

We have tried over the last 10 years to change the culture and have failed miserable. Tresman and Nagy were failures and each time we ran back to our safety blanket and hired a Defensive minded coach. Returning to our roots while dipping a toe in the water of the current NFL.

As long as we our rooted in our ways of doing business we will never have a Franchise QB in this city. Even if we hit on a P.Mahomes or J.Burrow the current culture and scheme will fail them and they will be at best J.Cutler and at worse Cad Mcnown.

You have to fire the entire staff if you are going to draft a QB with the 1st pick. If they don't then it doesn't matter who they draft because the team will fail them like they did Justin. Justin with his talent should never be 22nd ranked in the league. He likely never would have been a HOF franchise QB, but could have been good enough to lead us to the playoffs with the right culture and scheme.

Or maybe the scouting reports that followed “Justin” out of college citing his deficiencies were correct and that’s who he is no matter who’s coaching him.

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Proud member of the white guy grievance committee

It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

Right, the much-discussed Zierlein scouting report assessed him perfectly.

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This is correct, juiced. You are for some reason asserting that because Justin is athletic and strong therefore he must be destined for something higher than 22 overall at QB. The same logic would apply to any Olympic athlete or MMA fighter with similar traits to Fields - because of their elite traits they must necessarily be destined for NFL greatness. Extremely flawed thinking.

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Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

I think that’s because people put together these highlight reels which show him running around backwards and then gunning it down field.

From the games I watched, he looked good in the pocket. He makes the quick easy throws that Fields consistently ignored. Nobody is going make a highlight reel of that, though it could obviously just be Lincoln Riley’s offense and not anything special with Williams.

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This isn't the Pickett draft. I believe it's more about preference and the intrigue of a kid like MHJ. Albert Breer said an executive compared Maye to Burrow, and we've already seen the Mahomes comparisons with Williams.

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Be well

GO BEARS!!!

Do you trust this staff to develop the next QB in this draft or trust them to develop the next CB, DT, DE player we draft?

Everyone must go and be replaced with offensive minded people like; Adam Peters from SF as GM and Ben Johnson from DET.

He's short and indecisive. Lots of batted passes.

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Be well

GO BEARS!!!

The difference between Justin and an Olympic athlete or MMA fighter with similar traits to Fields is Fields is a QB and they are not. He's been throwing a football his entire life. If he was running track since grade school or training to be a fighter in the MMA the last decade or so he would probably be pretty good at it.

Not saying he would have ended up in the HOF, but he should at least be top 15 in the league with his talent.

Found this old pre-season article from SI. Changed the name to Fields from whom it was originally about.


Potential 2024 pre-season article:

Has anyone seen Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears? Oh, there he is, right over there, talking to the quarterback coach. Which quarterback coach? Good question. It's, let's see, it's, uh, Bobby Slowik. They're working on the new attack, which head coach Matt Eberflus says will be like Cincinnati's and feature four wideouts. You say Fields looks a bit confused? Well, this is his fourth year in the league, and he's working under his fourth quarterback coach. Consequently his rankings have steadily dropped—from 76.9 to 68.5 to last year's 62.3, which was next to last in the NFL. This off season the Bears gave him a vote of confidence by drafting USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams in the first round. (They couldn't sign him, and he ended up with the Patriots.)

The Bears talk about fresh legs, fresh faces and fresh raw talent just waiting to be cooked. But they always do that in Chicago. They bury you with names. Still, Chicago isn't without talent. Right tackle Darnel Wright, is outstanding; Teven Jenkins is a potential Pro Bowler when he's not limping; and wideout D.J. Moore was dazzling last year. This year's second first round pick (the Bears always have lots of selections), wideout Rome Oduze, may be almost as good as Moore. Next years No. 1 from NE. The Bears can always trade it away, as they did with Caleb Williams. Then they'll have even more draft choices for '26.

Anyone want to guess who this article was written about?

Got it. It would have been more efficient if you simply said Fields opting not to throw balls to open receivers and instead taking sacks is on Getsy/coaching. So next time there's a receiver streaking down the field with his hand up and nothing but green in front of him and Fields doesn't throw it, the issue is coaching. Got it.

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Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

Hey how about that Skeets Nehemiah huh ??

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Proud member of the white guy grievance committee

It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

I thought Whitehair and Jackson's contracts were finished at the end of this year. It's going to cost them 10 million combined of dead cap to walk away from them with 15 million saved. I'm not so sure both are gone.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Eddie Jackson played like it was his last game Sunday

The Bears save $22M next year by cutting both. Where did you get $15M from?

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Be well

GO BEARS!!!

Whitehair can't be allowed to return.

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I was looking at spottrac. Maybe I'm reading it incorrectly. I haven't exactly put in the time to master the nfl cap.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Why would a QB not throw to the open receiver? He threw to them in college. The argument used to be, "NFL open" his first couple years and it has evolved into "receivers streaking down the field with his hand up open" and he doesn't throw to them.

hmm, what has changed since college?

Nothing. He's a below average quarterback. That's why he'll be traded.

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Be well

GO BEARS!!!

https://larrybrownsports.com/wp-content ... ceiver.jpg

Per juiced, Fields needs written instructions, presumably via email, that he is to throw to open receivers streaking down the field. Hopefully coaches can clear that up in the future with a process map or raci chart.

_________________
Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

The "Renaldo Nehemiah as a WR because he's so fucking fast" theory.

Edited because I don't understand editing quotes sometimes.

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"When people want their version of the truth, they go find it, no matter how baseless their beliefs." -- Ken Rosenthal

Agreed!

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I'm all for that as well. I don't see greatness in Fields. I don't even see goodness in Flus

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

when was the last time the 1/1 draft pick turned out to be the best of the top 10?

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the world will always the world. your entire existence is defined by your response.

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Booger McFarland was on Dan Patrick this morning. His assessment was to pick up the 5th year option on Fields but hold off on offering an extension.

Meanwhile, one of the teams below 5 who needs a QB is going to decide to just bring in Russell Wilson for a year on the veteran minimum (because Denver is on the hook to pay the rest of his 2024 salary). That would be such a Bears thing to do... trade Fields and bring in Wilson and have a circus.

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"When people want their version of the truth, they go find it, no matter how baseless their beliefs." -- Ken Rosenthal

I want Fields gone as much as anybody, but I’m not sold on Williams…and I don’t think the Bears need to limit their sights on him. My feeling is that someone will take him #1 and he’ll be a Bryce Young project and/or bust while one of the QBs taken later will be the real find. Problem is that Poles, from his own admission last year, feels nervous with the #1 so I think he’ll either trade down and keep Fields or take Williams as the “sure” bet so he can defend it as the consensus among experts.

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