100% correct.

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Now here's the red flag regarding Williams:

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Perfect. I hope the Bears talk themselves into Maye.

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“How do you get to be president and you’re stupid?” Donald J Trump - 4/10/25
When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace turns into a circus. - Turkish Proverb

Yep agreed. I think it's the primary driver behind Fields' ineffectiveness. I guess scouts have to determine if Williams' high TTT is high because he's trying to make things happen (coachable I guess) or, like Fields, it's because he's wired to not throw the ball until he has visible confirmation his receiver has 25 yards of separation at minimum (bad/fatal/run away)

_________________
Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

I’d like to see the college numbers on guys like Kyler, Baker, maybe Hurts…is it a product of Lincoln Riley’s offense or is it his hero ball tendencies?

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Aren't all of those guys subpar in the pocket?

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I suppose you have to know where USC o line ranks. Maybe he is see to being able to stand back there all day as he is safe?

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Elections have consequences.

From what I can find online it looks like Baker was ranked 12th and Kyler and Hurts were 19 & 20 in pocket-passer rating (this season). Fields was 22 fwiw just ahead of Minshew.

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“How do you get to be president and you’re stupid?” Donald J Trump - 4/10/25
When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace turns into a circus. - Turkish Proverb

I think Poles has had his eye on Williams for a year or more. The Bears are going to take him. Whether or not he will actually be good is a separate question.

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As players or decision makers?

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I was just looking at NCAA QBR across time the other day and the top 10 is filled at times with NFL busts. I guess it just means for college you really have to look beyond the numbers because the quality of competition is inconsistent - sure, some of the defensive lineman or backs chasing you may be in the NFL next year, but others are going to be sitting at a desk somewhere writing emails for a living.

_________________
Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

caleb has potential to be a franchise QB for years.... fields is an incredible athlete that wasnt able to win in 3 years. sure he wasnt the only reason they didnt win, but unless we get some insane package of 3 first round picks plus for 1.01, i think draft williams. i actually expect someone will be able to turn fields into a regular season winner (note i dont think Fields is going to ever be able to win in the playoffs because i dont see his passing issues ever truly getting fixed), but it wont happen here so move on to williams. especially if you can get decent compensation for fields via trade

What’s success rate of a QB picked first, versus those picked top 10, versus this picked first round, versus this picked anywhere else. Let someone overpay for the one, and get a QB elsewhere on day one, and use said draft capital to help him. This you must pick a qb first because you didn’t do it last year is nonsense, especially when there isn’t a clear cut guy way out out in front.

we dont have to overpay. we have the pick. if he's the guy you get him on a rookie deal for 5 years and that money can be used elsewhere in FA or to retain guys. that's the benefit as hub would say "nobody is talking about".

That simply isn't true. Williams has been the #1 guy for a while. He would have been the #1 pick last year too if he was eligible. Could he be a bust? Sure, but he's been the clear head and shoulders #1 QB

People forget about that.

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Actually it’s better than I would have suspected. There’s a handful of busts and several mid-level players but the majority had long careers and several were top level.
https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/lists/nfl-draft-no-1-overall-qb-1967/

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“How do you get to be president and you’re stupid?” Donald J Trump - 4/10/25
When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace turns into a circus. - Turkish Proverb

I don’t know this guy but he watched every college game Williams played for this write-up:

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I skimmed it so maybe I missed this but I'd want to go deeper into processing. Is he throwing before the receiver even makes his cut and/or looks back or is he waiting till the guy is "open".

_________________
Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

I think that list is only applicable back to the mid 2000s, maybe 2000.

Still applies though.

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“How do you get to be president and you’re stupid?” Donald J Trump - 4/10/25
When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace turns into a circus. - Turkish Proverb

A lot of things being said about Williams were knocks on Mahomes coming out too. Can’t win against top opponents, holds onto the ball too long trying to play hero ball, is the product of a system and so on.


The truth is that it matters where you land and how you’re coached and developed. Williams has all the physical traits -outside of maybe elite height- to be a great QB at the next level. He’s a much better prospect than Fields was coming out. But where he lands and how he’s brought along and fits in matter.


The way I see it is there’s been more than enough time to evaluate Fields and know what he is. He’s a guy that holds on to the ball too long, doesn’t anticipate throws, misses wide open guys, or flat out doesn’t see them. That’s what he is at this level and that’s most likely what he will always be. Can the offense improve around him? Yes, I’m sure it can. But is that the best way to go about this process? No, not imo. Look, the reason you traded last years number 1 and loaded up on picks for this year was to give one more year to develop and evaluate Fields while giving the team the chance a pathway to land in a position to grab his replacement if that evaluation concluded with him not being the guy. Now that the Bears are here, you don’t pass up your biggest opportunity to grab that impact guy.


To me this isn’t about grabbing that guy because you can’t pass up a QB two years in a row, it’s about grabbing that guy because Fields isn’t the guy and this is the best possible opportunity to get the guy. It’s a bird in hand. Kicking the can down the road ‘just 1 more year’ guarantees nothing regardless of the haul it gets you. You aren’t guaranteed a shot at another elite QB in the draft, you aren’t guaranteed the WR, O-Lineman, or defensive players you stock up on with that capital won’t be busts. And this is a QB league and the Bears have a chance to grab the best prospect to come out of college at that position in a long time -and you don’t pass on that. You take that swing and try to get it right.

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If the rule you followed lead you to this, of what use was the rule?

It’s very easy to me…Williams would’ve been 1/1 the past two drafts. He’s the best QB in the draft in a while and a franchise historically bereft of talent at the position has the 1/1 pick.

Take Williams. Don’t overthink it.

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I think people who understand data agree with nme, Antioch, TM, me, bagels, etc. Most data driven people are in lock step. It's just the vocal majority of fans who self identify as people who think Justin Fields is franchise that are responsible for all the noise. Pre social media Justin Fields would already be packing his bags. Nowadays all these dumbass voices are being amplified and pushing radio stations and other media platforms to pander to the Fields cult masses.

_________________
Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

OK. Hope it works out. College data doesn't correlate to NFL data. It's a whole different animal where running to your mama in tears and checking out in games is frowned upon.

I mean data on Fields. It tells you he's not a viable starting option if you're looking for elite QB play.

_________________
Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

Everybody is looking for elite QB play. And everybody knows it's a lottery ticket.

Harbaugh's no dummy. Chargers are by far the best job.

The issue I have with this opinion is that we already have NFL data on Fields and that data shows he ain’t it. So, the Bears have to take another swing and are in great position to do so. These opportunities aren’t guaranteed, and they don’t come along often -don’t pass on them when they do come up.


There wasn’t quite enough data last year, so I didn’t have a problem with holding off on taking a swing. But now it’s been 3 seasons and you pretty much know what Fields is.


Btw, I like Drake Maye too, so it doesn’t necessarily have to be Williams. But the Bears do need to make a move this draft and do their best to get it right.

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If the rule you followed lead you to this, of what use was the rule?

I’m good with moving on from fields. I also would be surprised if he improves elsewhere, because bears. Just not sold on Williams, bordering on stay far away. Trade down and get one of the tier two guys.

One thing the Bears have going for them this time around is the personnel is a lot better all around on this team. The defense should be a top 10 unit (provided they re sign Johnson).. the offensive line is much better off now than 3 seasons ago, and you have some decent proven playmakers in guys like Kmet, Moore, and Herbert. And that’s before they add anything in this years draft and free agency.


In many ways this current opportunity provides maybe the the biggest cushion and safest opportunity to bring in a highly drafted QB. It’s another reason I think the time is now to take that big swing.

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If the rule you followed lead you to this, of what use was the rule?