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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:04 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
Vegan, I would like you listen to Goff on Parkins’ show on Friday. Then I want you to tell me the flawed logic with Goff’s main arguments.


I know the answer already but would like another similar thinker to confirm.

Please.


Heard some of it, super annoying. Here's what I could gather:

Herb Howard:
Quote:
Fields is fine, why go out and get another QB when the one we got is just fine. He has a lot of highlights demonstrating things other QBs can't do. He's better than Caleb because I feel that he's better than Caleb.


Again, more argument by assertion bullshit rather than using facts and data. Howard starts from the position that Fields is dope but never establishes why Fields is dope. Later on he alludes to Fields evading sacks and being really athletic as some reasons for why he thinks highly of Fields, but that's a subjective point of view. He never acknowledges, for example, that Fields had to take otherworldly evasive action at times to avoid sacks because he missed 2-3 possible throws on that same play. You're going to miss throws when you spent 3.8 seconds or whatever it is in the pocket waiting for Moore to get NCAA-open since Fields doesn't want to throw when Moore is NFL-open. Actual research would tell you that, but apparently Howard's view of "all of Fields' snaps" was obstructed by the 4-5 Fields posters Howard hung in his basement.

Pointing to highlights as to why someone is good is a terribly sophomoric point of view. There is no engagement at all with 40 games of datapoints meticulously detailing where Fields excels (rushing) and where he falls short (everything else). At best this is just lazy and at worst this is dishonest.

Goff took this annoyingly fatalistic position that since Chicago is QB-cursed you can't just drop a phenom in here and expect things to change overnight. When Parkins rightfully pointed out how things changed overnight in Cincy when Burrow was drafted both guests just tried to pivot/move the goalposts. But Parkins is right and he could have went further - yes, Burrow in Cincy, but also Stroud in Houston, Manning in Indy, Brady in TB, etc., is the checkmate to this kind of argument. None of those franchises were considered to be the gold standard in anything until they were transformed into contenders by elite QBs. Moreover, you can easily disprove Goff's lazy point by mapping out the post-Bears careers of prior Bears QBs. If Goff is correct, once these QBs left the QB hellhole that is Chicago and moved to franchises with "better infrastructure," they should have blomossed. Did they? No.

Cade McNown - bust in Chicago and elsewhere
Grossman/Orton - performed more or less the same as they did in Chicago
Tr.ubisky - performed the same if not worse than he did in Chicago

If Goff is correct, these QBs should have seen better days once hooking up with better franchises. They did not. What does it mean? Chicago just didn't hit on those picks. These QBs' lack of appreciably different performance outside of Chicago undermines narratives that paint Chicago as a city that doesn't "develop QBs." Moreover, the argument also assumes that if you're a high draft pick as a QB you must necessarily perform at some above average level by virtue of being a hight draft pick (like Fields). it never considers the possibility that perhaps you were actually overdrafted, and that your college skills didn't translate neatly to the pros (like Fields)

What did you think?

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:20 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
There's low risk if you replace Fields with Williams and then Williams proceeds to suck. Again, we're talking about the 23rd rated passer in the league. Per ESPN, Fields is actually underperforming a replacement- level QB. To be fair to Fields, he's not massively underperforming relative to a replacement level QB, but he's either just as good as a replacement level QB or slightly worse. Either way you put it, the response if Fields were to go this off-season should be "eh", followed by a shrug. The production is replaceable.


It's actually a high risk if you factor in what they could get for the pick as well as what they are passing up in Harrison. If he is only slightly better than Fields (who you think happens to suck just ask you) then it's dumb to draft him. If he isn't a franchise guy, as Keyshawn Johnson implied, then it's dumb to draft him. He has to be a top 10 QB in order to justify drafting him.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:28 pm 
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No , he just needs to have a chance to be a top 10 quarterback which he does. Unlike Justin Fields.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:33 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
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Chicken and egg thing though because what good is MJH if a barely replacement level QB is throwing to him.

The following is the only no brainer....trading down, once or twice, to get a 2025 #1 and a 2026 #1. Probably not possible but it IS a no brainer.


So you want to go into next season with a barely replacement level QB surrounded by guys whose skills he can't leverage because he doesn't know how to play QB?


Ridiculous assessment.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:34 pm 
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badrogue17 wrote:
No , he just needs to have a chance to be a top 10 quarterback which he does. Unlike Justin Fields.


Nah dude. You're not making sense. No. 1 pick has to be a franchise player. If he isn't then the pick makes no sense. Particularly so if you pass on other players that turn out to be franchise players.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:50 pm 
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The Doctor Of Style wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
There's low risk if you replace Fields with Williams and then Williams proceeds to suck. Again, we're talking about the 23rd rated passer in the league. Per ESPN, Fields is actually underperforming a replacement- level QB. To be fair to Fields, he's not massively underperforming relative to a replacement level QB, but he's either just as good as a replacement level QB or slightly worse. Either way you put it, the response if Fields were to go this off-season should be "eh", followed by a shrug. The production is replaceable.


It's actually a high risk if you factor in what they could get for the pick as well as what they are passing up in Harrison. If he is only slightly better than Fields (who you think happens to suck just ask you) then it's dumb to draft him. If he isn't a franchise guy, as Keyshawn Johnson implied, then it's dumb to draft him. He has to be a top 10 QB in order to justify drafting him.


I don't hate Fields, the Fields performance data hates Fields.

Like I said, it's a no-brainer to replace the 23rd-best passer in the league, whether via the draft or free agency. You're neglecting to establish a baseline for Fields even as you calculate the risk for getting rid of him. That kind of cost/benefit calculation can only be done when you have properly appraised where Fields falls in the QB landscape relative to the options you have for replacing him. Per actual data, this is about replacing the 23rd best passer in the league.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:55 pm 
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The main flaw in Goff's argument is that Caleb won't succeed because it's the Bears. So in his scenario, it does not matter who the QB is, that person will fail. Goff was also insistent on Fields being more likely to win sooner. But Parkins properly countered that a generational player is much more important than just next year.

Look, I do not have a clue if Caleb is great or will be great. Scouts seems to think he will be. I am all but sure Fields will never be great. Fields best shot is being on a stocked team like the Niners and game managing.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:59 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
The main flaw in Goff's argument is that Caleb won't succeed because it's the Bears. So in his scenario, it does not matter who the QB is, that person will fail. Goff was also insistent on Fields being more likely to win sooner. But Parkins properly countered that a generational player is much more important than just next year.

Look, I do not have a clue if Caleb is great or will be great. Scouts seems to think he will be. I am all but sure Fields will never be great. Fields best shot is being on a stocked team like the Niners and game managing.


Yep, it's highly flawed - Cincy was a mess before Burrow arrived. They did not have "football infrastructure." Same with Houston. They had a dumbass GM who traded prime Hopkins for past his prime David Johnson AND gave up picks as well (I think). Then they fired two or three coaches in a row after one year each. Clown show organization. Now they have Stroud and everyone wants to praise the organization's football sophistication and org structure. it's all bullshit - they're good because they hit on a QB.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:01 pm 
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Yup the right QB fixes it all.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:10 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
The Doctor Of Style wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
There's low risk if you replace Fields with Williams and then Williams proceeds to suck. Again, we're talking about the 23rd rated passer in the league. Per ESPN, Fields is actually underperforming a replacement- level QB. To be fair to Fields, he's not massively underperforming relative to a replacement level QB, but he's either just as good as a replacement level QB or slightly worse. Either way you put it, the response if Fields were to go this off-season should be "eh", followed by a shrug. The production is replaceable.


It's actually a high risk if you factor in what they could get for the pick as well as what they are passing up in Harrison. If he is only slightly better than Fields (who you think happens to suck just ask you) then it's dumb to draft him. If he isn't a franchise guy, as Keyshawn Johnson implied, then it's dumb to draft him. He has to be a top 10 QB in order to justify drafting him.


I don't hate Fields, the Fields performance data hates Fields.

Like I said, it's a no-brainer to replace the 23rd-best passer in the league, whether via the draft or free agency. You're neglecting to establish a baseline for Fields even as you calculate the risk for getting rid of him. That kind of cost/benefit calculation can only be done when you have properly appraised where Fields falls in the QB landscape relative to the options you have for replacing him. Per actual data, this is about replacing the 23rd best passer in the league.


T
Like Brogue You're not making sense. The choice is between Williams and Fields as it stands now. And your flawed argument is that you need to replace Fields just for the sake of replacing Fields. Well it's that sort of think that got Tony LaRussa replaced with Grifiol. And you see where that got us. If the Bears pass on Harrison to draft a guy that might only be slightly better than Justin Fields than it's a huge mistake.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:11 pm 
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There are four QBs to each division. All QBs ranked 1 or 2 got to the playoffs. No QB who finished 3 or 4 in their division made the playoffs. Where does Fields rank in the division for you and why.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:14 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Vegan, I would like you listen to Goff on Parkins’ show on Friday. Then I want you to tell me the flawed logic with Goff’s main arguments.


I know the answer already but would like another similar thinker to confirm.

Please.


Heard some of it, super annoying. Here's what I could gather:

Herb Howard:
Quote:
Fields is fine, why go out and get another QB when the one we got is just fine. He has a lot of highlights demonstrating things other QBs can't do. He's better than Caleb because I feel that he's better than Caleb.


Again, more argument by assertion bullshit rather than using facts and data. Howard starts from the position that Fields is dope but never establishes why Fields is dope. Later on he alludes to Fields evading sacks and being really athletic as some reasons for why he thinks highly of Fields, but that's a subjective point of view. He never acknowledges, for example, that Fields had to take otherworldly evasive action at times to avoid sacks because he missed 2-3 possible throws on that same play. You're going to miss throws when you spent 3.8 seconds or whatever it is in the pocket waiting for Moore to get NCAA-open since Fields doesn't want to throw when Moore is NFL-open. Actual research would tell you that, but apparently Howard's view of "all of Fields' snaps" was obstructed by the 4-5 Fields posters Howard hung in his basement.

Pointing to highlights as to why someone is good is a terribly sophomoric point of view. There is no engagement at all with 40 games of datapoints meticulously detailing where Fields excels (rushing) and where he falls short (everything else). At best this is just lazy and at worst this is dishonest.

Goff took this annoyingly fatalistic position that since Chicago is QB-cursed you can't just drop a phenom in here and expect things to change overnight. When Parkins rightfully pointed out how things changed overnight in Cincy when Burrow was drafted both guests just tried to pivot/move the goalposts. But Parkins is right and he could have went further - yes, Burrow in Cincy, but also Stroud in Houston, Manning in Indy, Brady in TB, etc., is the checkmate to this kind of argument. None of those franchises were considered to be the gold standard in anything until they were transformed into contenders by elite QBs. Moreover, you can easily disprove Goff's lazy point by mapping out the post-Bears careers of prior Bears QBs. If Goff is correct, once these QBs left the QB hellhole that is Chicago and moved to franchises with "better infrastructure," they should have blomossed. Did they? No.

Cade McNown - bust in Chicago and elsewhere
Grossman/Orton - performed more or less the same as they did in Chicago
Tr.ubisky - performed the same if not worse than he did in Chicago

If Goff is correct, these QBs should have seen better days once hooking up with better franchises. They did not. What does it mean? Chicago just didn't hit on those picks. These QBs' lack of appreciably different performance outside of Chicago undermines narratives that paint Chicago as a city that doesn't "develop QBs." Moreover, the argument also assumes that if you're a high draft pick as a QB you must necessarily perform at some above average level by virtue of being a hight draft pick (like Fields). it never considers the possibility that perhaps you were actually overdrafted, and that your college skills didn't translate neatly to the pros (like Fields)

What did you think?

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:17 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
There are four QBs to each division. All QBs ranked 1 or 2 got to the playoffs. No QB who finished 3 or 4 in their division made the playoffs. Where does Fields rank in the division for you and why.


As Keyshawn Johnson stated he's easily the most talented QB in the division. . Which means that he has the chance to be the best in the division. That is what my "baseline" happens to be.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:18 pm 
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I was at the Jose jersey retirement ceremony in Toronto (Cubs game) this year. Great gif.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:19 pm 
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The Doctor Of Style wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
There are four QBs to each division. All QBs ranked 1 or 2 got to the playoffs. No QB who finished 3 or 4 in their division made the playoffs. Where does Fields rank in the division for you and why.


As Keyshawn Johnson stated he's easily the most talented QB in the division. . Which means that he has the chance to be the best in the division. That is what my "baseline" happens to be.


Welp I was in GB for Bears/Packers. Love is a lot better.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:21 pm 
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If Cousins is with Minnesota, Fields is easily the worst QB in the division.


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:22 pm 
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Goff and Cousins are both better and it’s not particularly close.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:22 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
The Doctor Of Style wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
There are four QBs to each division. All QBs ranked 1 or 2 got to the playoffs. No QB who finished 3 or 4 in their division made the playoffs. Where does Fields rank in the division for you and why.


As Keyshawn Johnson stated he's easily the most talented QB in the division. . Which means that he has the chance to be the best in the division. That is what my "baseline" happens to be.


Welp I was in GB for Bears/Packers. Love is a lot better.


He's not more talented. Fields ceiling is higher than all of theirs

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Last edited by The Doctor Of Style on Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:22 pm 
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The Doctor Of Style wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
There are four QBs to each division. All QBs ranked 1 or 2 got to the playoffs. No QB who finished 3 or 4 in their division made the playoffs. Where does Fields rank in the division for you and why.


As Keyshawn Johnson stated he's easily the most talented QB in the division. . Which means that he has the chance to be the best in the division. That is what my "baseline" happens to be.


Then why did he finish 4th out of 4? Why did Josh Dobbs who was benched by two different teams in 2023 alone outperform him? DJ Moore is better than any WR on the Packers. Why did Fields not outperform Jordan Love if he's as talented as you/Keyshawn think he is?

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:24 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
The Doctor Of Style wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
There are four QBs to each division. All QBs ranked 1 or 2 got to the playoffs. No QB who finished 3 or 4 in their division made the playoffs. Where does Fields rank in the division for you and why.


As Keyshawn Johnson stated he's easily the most talented QB in the division. . Which means that he has the chance to be the best in the division. That is what my "baseline" happens to be.


Then why did he finish 4th out of 4? Why did Josh Dobbs who was benched by two different teams in 2023 alone outperform him? DJ Moore is better than any WR on the Packers. Why did Fields not outperform Jordan Love if he's as talented as you/Keyshawn think he is?


I don't think you quite understand what the word talent means

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:27 pm 
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At playing the quarterback position ??? He sure the hell is and its not even close .

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:27 pm 
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Why did Jemarcus Russell, who is legitimately more talented than Peyton Manning, flame out of the NFL? It appears that your scouting methodology is more flawed than Fields' pocket awareness.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:31 pm 
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Fields is/will be average at best and the Bears should move on, especially with pick 1/1. The sooner the better, because some people are starting to act like arguing against him is the highest moral calling. Additionally they’re using the Lovie Smith playbook and acting like the whole world is pro-Fields and they’re the only ones brave enough to say something. It’s like when you actually agree with Bernstein about something, but the more he talks about it the more you wish he was wrong. It beats arguing politics though!


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:34 pm 
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KDdidit wrote:
Fields is/will be average at best and the Bears should move on, especially with pick 1/1. The sooner the better, because some people are starting to act like arguing against him is the highest moral calling. Additionally they’re using the Lovie Smith playbook and acting like the whole world is pro-Fields and they’re the only ones brave enough to say something. It’s like when you actually agree with Bernstein about something, but the more he talks about it the more you wish he was wrong. It beats arguing politics though!

Why do you think arguing that Fields hasn’t been a good pro QB is a moral calling?

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:42 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
Why did Jemarcus Russell, who is legitimately more talented than Peyton Manning, flame out of the NFL? It appears that your scouting methodology is more flawed than Fields' pocket awareness.


Fields is also much better as a QB than JaMarcus Russell, which makes your analogy rather foolish.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:45 pm 
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The Doctor Of Style wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
Why did Jemarcus Russell, who is legitimately more talented than Peyton Manning, flame out of the NFL? It appears that your scouting methodology is more flawed than Fields' pocket awareness.


Fields is also much better as a QB than JaMarcus Russell which makes your analogy rather foolish.


You didn't answer the question. You're also changing the goalposts because saying someone is a better QB is different than saying someone is more talented. Pick a lane.

If Fields is "more" talented than anyone in the division, then why was he ranked dead last? Do you believe talented players who finish dead last are better than they players they failed to outperform?

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:53 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
The Doctor Of Style wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
Why did Jemarcus Russell, who is legitimately more talented than Peyton Manning, flame out of the NFL? It appears that your scouting methodology is more flawed than Fields' pocket awareness.


Fields is also much better as a QB than JaMarcus Russell which makes your analogy rather foolish.


You didn't answer the question. You're also changing the goalposts because saying someone is a better QB is different than saying someone is more talented. Pick a lane.

If Fields is "more" talented than anyone in the division, then why was he ranked dead last? Do you believe talented players who finish dead last are better than they players they failed to outperform?


What goalposts have been "moved"? I've stated the same thing from the beginning. The reason you keep him is because of his talent and its too early to give up on him. He also played for a terrible coordinator and obviously the Bears agreed because they sacked the guy immediately after the season. And it's insane to think that he isn't more talented than at least Goff and Cousins.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 8:54 pm 
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Alex Smith agrees with Keyshawn Johnson about Fields talent by the way. He also believe that the Bears coaching situation has played a role too.

https://sports.yahoo.com/pro-bowl-qb-ju ... 23012.html

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 9:04 pm 
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I give zero fucks about Fields. Obviously, if the no brainer scenario is a bust, you draft a QB. But I don't know how you would turn that down for a scratch off.

Fill the bases loaded rather than hope for a bases empty HR.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 9:12 pm 
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Nardi wrote:
I give zero fucks about Fields. Obviously, if the no brainer scenario is a bust, you draft a QB. But I don't know how you would turn that down for a scratch off.

Fill the bases loaded rather than hope for a bases empty HR.

I’m gonna abuse this metaphor, but you can’t opt to fill the bases and then choose march up Konerko when that happens. He ain’t walking through that door.

Keeping Fields is like loading the bases for Leury.

_________________
Peter Clavin wrote:
Because you are stupid, maybe read some books educate yourself.
Nardi wrote:
We walk, talk, and won't shit our pants


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