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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 12:12 pm 
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Hussra wrote:
Frelund had a good gambling/analytics podcast with the San Diego Chargers play-by-play guy Matt "Money" Something for two or three seasons. After she got more of on-air role at NFL Network etc she stopped doing the pod. When she was doing it she'd run her model on presumably NFL front offices or NFL Networks hardware 1000's of times each week and share the results. Her spread picks weren't very good; usually she'd be within 1 to 3 points of the final total for the game and get the side right most every game. If she didn't she get confused and upset at her model.


She did Northwestern's graduate finance/analytics program. iirc, her dad's like a rocket scientist from Michigan named "MacGyver"; which if you're a scientist named MacGyver, you gotta bring it every day.


I wouldn't strongly challenge anyone's opinion about who would be the best player in the draft. Any model that has the Bears drafting a tackle at #1 is flawed.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 12:17 pm 
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Bears with fourth-year Fields under center in 2024 vs Bears with a true rookie QB under center in 2024....the former likely (9 times out of 10? 99 times out of 100?) wins more games than the latter


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 12:25 pm 
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Hussra wrote:
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Bears with fourth-year Fields under center in 2024 vs Bears with a true rookie QB under center in 2024....the former likely wins more games than the latter


Fields has won 10 games in 3 years. The Bears have won a higher percentage of games when he wasn't the starter in the past 3 years. I believe C-Will or Maye could match or exceed that win total next season. There is absolutely no evidence that Fields is more likely to win more games. He struggled to find wins in his last 7 starts, even though the defense forced 19 turnovers. He was even worse on the road.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 12:30 pm 
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Not so much to do with Fields and more to do with the history of true rookie QB's in the NFL...they lose--a lot, especially in the playoffs.

anyone thinks a team is getting a CJ Stroud in this draft? :lol: Had that chance and passed on it. Unicorn seasons are unicorn seasons for a reason, they super-rarely to almost never happen.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 12:47 pm 
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speaking of losing a lot, C-Will lost more games his last month of college ball than Stroud lost his entire college career:


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chances a guy who went 5-4 in the Pac 12 in 2023 is going to CJ Stroud it in the NFL in 2024?


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 12:49 pm 
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Hussra wrote:
Not so much to do with Fields and more to do with the history of true rookie QB's in the NFL...they lose--a lot, especially in the playoffs.

anyone thinks a team is getting a CJ Stroud in this draft? :lol: Had that chance and passed on it. Unicorn seasons are unicorn seasons for a reason, they super-rarely to almost never happen.


You're not thinking this through. The Bears roster next season won't be comparable to most quarterbacks that are drafted high. You have to set aside history when you look at the potential of the 2024 Bears. The Luck Colts are probably the best comp, but even that team was aging. This is a youthful Bears team.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 12:53 pm 
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Hussra wrote:
speaking of losing a lot, C-Will lost more games his last month of college ball than Stroud lost his entire college career:


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chances a guy who went 5-4 in the Pac 12 in 2023 is going to CJ Stroud it in the NFL in 2024?


Intentionally or not, you're comparing players who played with entirely different levels of talent. Stroud had his LT and receiver drafted early last year. He'll have another receiver be the first nonquarterback off the board. In addition to that, the Bears team is set up to be better than what the Texans were this season.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 1:00 pm 
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C-Will even lost to Utah at home, fucking Utah?!?

that's concerning.

Stroud lost to an insanely motivated by an insane coach Michigan 2x, a Georgia team that belonged in the AFC south 1x and lost to Oregon in Stroud's 1st or 2nd college start.

Stroud never lost to a mediocre Utah team at home in college.

Fucking Utes, mang, no one can handle the Runnin' Utes. (except the 5 other teams who beat Utah that season, including Northwestern)


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 1:10 pm 
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Hussra wrote:
C-Will even lost to Utah at home, fucking Utah?!?

that's concerning.

Stroud lost to an insanely motivated by an insane coach Michigan 2x, a Georgia team that belonged in the AFC south 1x and lost to Oregon in Stroud's 1st or 2nd college start.

Stroud never lost to a mediocre Utah team at home in college.

Fucking Utes, mang, no one can handle the Runnin' Utes. (except the 5 other teams who beat Utah that season, including Northwestern)


Stroud didn't have a defense that gave up 40+ points a game. Stroud didn't play with a ragtag team of day 3 or updrafted players. If you gave me decent odds, I would wager C-Will will have a better 2024 season than Stroud.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 1:28 pm 
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do you think we could get josh allen for both fields and williams?

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 1:30 pm 
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It was Utah. U-T-A-H.

you don't lose to Utah at home your final college season at USC and then fairy-tale-pumpkin-to-playoff-winning-QB turn into Coleridge Bernard Stroud IV next season in the NFL.

I'm gonna go with Mr Wisconsin football. Longo said not to pick any of these fool QB's this draft.
if this guy says these 2024 draft prospect QB's are Sam Howell-replacement-level QB's, then none of them worth a 1st overall.


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doesn't mean stick with Fields. It's not a binary Fields or lost-to-Utah true rookie QB


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 1:47 pm 
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there's a saying that Generals always re-fight the last war ( and initially mess up the current war as a result ). GM's drafting the current draft based on the results of the last draft similarly misguided.

Everyone downgraded CJ Stroud cuz the last tOSU QB (well, last 2 dozen tOSU QBs to get drafted) stunk it up in the NFL. That's somewhat defensible. even tho clearly wrong in retrospect.


Drafting C-Will and expecting him to be as successful as Stroud his rookie NFL season is even more misguided than the Ohio-State QB's overrated line of thinking.


Look at the player(s) before you and their body of work. Draft history plays into it but it shouldn't over-shadow losing to Utah at home.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 1:51 pm 
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Hussra wrote:
there's a saying that Generals always re-fight the last war ( and initially mess up the current war as a result ). GM's drafting the current draft based on the results of the last draft similarly misguided.

Everyone downgraded CJ Stroud cuz the last tOSU QB (well, last 2 dozen tOSU QBs to get drafted) stunk it up in the NFL. That's somewhat defensible. even tho clearly wrong in retrospect.


Drafting C-Will and expecting him to be as successful as Stroud his rookie NFL season is even more misguided than the Ohio-State QB's overrated line of thinking.


Look at the player(s) before you and their body of work. Draft history plays into it but it shouldn't over-shadow losing to Utah at home.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 2:59 pm 
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Mahomes got blown out in college a few times too and lost to mediocre opponents.. finished with a below .500 record for his career in college.


None of that means much. At least not as much as some here want to believe.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:03 pm 
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I would invite Hussra to watch the "every throw" YouTube videos of every Utah game C-Will played in.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:15 pm 
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Utah has a good program. Injuries caught up to them last year but that’s a well coached, physical team.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:28 pm 
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Last edited by Hussra on Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:29 pm 
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I watched Draft Day yesterday. No way the pancake eating mf’er is giving up three firsts to move up one spot, and I doubt the Jag guy would give up his high first for three seconds.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 4:01 pm 
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Has Caleb Williams ever thrown an inside slant?

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 4:14 pm 
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Tall Midget wrote:
Has Caleb Williams ever thrown an inside slant?


Yes. One of the things that concerned me early on, and made me favor Maye, was my belief that most of his passes were thrown to the outside. Working in the middle of the field is important in the NFL. We've seen Fields struggle with that. After viewing more film, I noticed he didn't have an issue reading or seeing the field, and those routes were rarely open or rarely in the design of a play.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 4:25 pm 
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Nas wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
Has Caleb Williams ever thrown an inside slant?


Yes. One of the things that concerned me early on, and made me favor Maye, was my belief that most of his passes were thrown to the outside. Working in the middle of the field is important in the NFL. We've seen Fields struggle with that. After viewing more film, I noticed he didn't have an issue reading or seeing the field, and those routes were rarely open or rarely in the design of a play.


That's what I'm getting at. Almost every passing play in the USC offense seems designed to go to the outside. The North Carolina offense attacked the middle of the field much more frequently--or at least that's my impression.

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Last edited by Tall Midget on Fri Feb 09, 2024 4:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 4:25 pm 
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NME wrote:
Mahomes got blown out in college a few times too and lost to mediocre opponents.. finished with a below .500 record for his career in college.


None of that means much. At least not as much as some here want to believe.


It just means draft position. Unless your tom Brady and nearly fade in oblivion.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 4:43 pm 
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Hussra wrote:
there's a saying that Generals always re-fight the last war ( and initially mess up the current war as a result ). GM's drafting the current draft based on the results of the last draft similarly misguided.

Everyone downgraded CJ Stroud cuz the last tOSU QB (well, last 2 dozen tOSU QBs to get drafted) stunk it up in the NFL. That's somewhat defensible. even tho clearly wrong in retrospect.


Drafting C-Will and expecting him to be as successful as Stroud his rookie NFL season is even more misguided than the Ohio-State QB's overrated line of thinking.


Look at the player(s) before you and their body of work. Draft history plays into it but it shouldn't over-shadow losing to Utah at home.


is this a rube parody account?


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 5:06 pm 
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Hussra wrote:
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After watching this footage I'm more convinced than ever that the Bears have to trade the pick.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 5:10 pm 
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:lol: :lol: :lol:

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 5:21 pm 
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C-Will retweeted a Hester video the Bears put out. He loves us

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 5:57 pm 
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Tall Midget wrote:
Nas wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
Has Caleb Williams ever thrown an inside slant?


Yes. One of the things that concerned me early on, and made me favor Maye, was my belief that most of his passes were thrown to the outside. Working in the middle of the field is important in the NFL. We've seen Fields struggle with that. After viewing more film, I noticed he didn't have an issue reading or seeing the field, and those routes were rarely open or rarely in the design of a play.


That's what I'm getting at. Almost every passing play in the USC offense seems designed to go to the outside. The North Carolina offense attacked the middle of the field much more frequently--or at least that's my impression.





If you watch his highlights that’s mostly what you’ll see -but if you watched games he attacks all over the field. I’ve watched about 6 of his games, he can throw slants all day and threw more than a few in the games I saw.


His biggest issue is spending a lot of time out of the Shotgun vs under center.. but that’s a criticism most college guys face.


Bottom line is Caleb can make any throw you can think of, and even plenty you can’t think of.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 6:02 pm 
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NME wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
Nas wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
Has Caleb Williams ever thrown an inside slant?


Yes. One of the things that concerned me early on, and made me favor Maye, was my belief that most of his passes were thrown to the outside. Working in the middle of the field is important in the NFL. We've seen Fields struggle with that. After viewing more film, I noticed he didn't have an issue reading or seeing the field, and those routes were rarely open or rarely in the design of a play.


That's what I'm getting at. Almost every passing play in the USC offense seems designed to go to the outside. The North Carolina offense attacked the middle of the field much more frequently--or at least that's my impression.





If you watch his highlights that’s mostly what you’ll see -but if you watched games he attacks all over the field. I’ve watched about 6 of his games, he can throw slants all day and threw more than a few in the games I saw.


His biggest issue is spending a lot of time out of the Shotgun vs under center.. but that’s a criticism most college guys face.


Bottom line is Caleb can make any throw you can think of, and even plenty you can’t think of.


I honestly don't remember seeing him under center.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 6:12 pm 
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Nas wrote:
NME wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
Nas wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
Has Caleb Williams ever thrown an inside slant?


Yes. One of the things that concerned me early on, and made me favor Maye, was my belief that most of his passes were thrown to the outside. Working in the middle of the field is important in the NFL. We've seen Fields struggle with that. After viewing more film, I noticed he didn't have an issue reading or seeing the field, and those routes were rarely open or rarely in the design of a play.


That's what I'm getting at. Almost every passing play in the USC offense seems designed to go to the outside. The North Carolina offense attacked the middle of the field much more frequently--or at least that's my impression.





If you watch his highlights that’s mostly what you’ll see -but if you watched games he attacks all over the field. I’ve watched about 6 of his games, he can throw slants all day and threw more than a few in the games I saw.


His biggest issue is spending a lot of time out of the Shotgun vs under center.. but that’s a criticism most college guys face.


Bottom line is Caleb can make any throw you can think of, and even plenty you can’t think of.


I honestly don't remember seeing him under center.




Only a handful of times a game id say. Very limited experience with it. But that concern can be applied to most of these guys tbh

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2024 9:59 pm 
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Hall of famer Brian Urlacher comes out opposite non-Hall of Famer Keyshawn Johnson…

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