Yes, a big thanks to Coast for last night! Helps ease the pain of having such terrible brackets in my work pool.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

Thanks, Beardown and newper. It's been a nice run. Going light tonight.

1* Michigan State -1.5

1/2* Michigan State-Kansas UNDER 138.5
Two really good defenses, whom I suspect will benefit from having played each other earlier this season. This is a close call, and my least favorite total I've given out this week, so I wouldn't bet the farm on it....

My plays:

Arizona +9.5 **
Syracuse +1 **
Syracuse-Oklahoma OVER 151 **
Michigan St. -1 *** (Coast)
Michigan St UNDER 138.5 **** (Coast)

Not sure about the NC-Gonzaga game just yet. It's a high total (164). NC is -8.

Beardown, two guys I really respect really like Xcuse tonight. I bought some of them too with ya...good luck.

Izzo do. 24-6-1, +17.05.

Think I could get a radio show gig with this record?

Yeah, but nobody knows the plays you are giving all your other message boards.

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You know me like that.

Had NC and NC over. I went out so I wasn't able to post it. Not that anybody should listen to me anyway. I mostly rely on others to do NCAA B-ball. I was lucky to get the Syracuse over. It was way under pace at the half.

Coast is slipping. I actually had to sweat that Michigan St. Cover. Michigan St. under came in easy like all of his totals.

Saturday
1/2* Missouri-Conn over 149 (150 ok)
Am I going to the well once too often with a Mizzou over? Conn is a better D than Memphis, but Mizzou's O is just clicking right now. And Conn is much better on O than Memphis. I actually think Missouri can win this game and if they do, the score will be in the 70s/80s.

Tuesday 1/31
1* Penn State-Notre Dame over 137.5
Early play on the NIT semifinal at MSG on Tuesday. I expect this number to be a bit higher by game day. PSU is showing very efficient O in the NIT, perhaps because none of the teams they have faced are in the same class defensively as most Big Ten teans. ND isn't either. PSU has played a few fast teams like ND (Georgia Tech, RI, Florida) and those totals all landed higher than this one as PSU ran with them. Might upgrade this to a double shot as I make the low end of this one in the mid 140s.

I've been noticing a trend. 2nd half OVERS are coming in fairly easy. I think it was 7 out of 8 for the Sweet 16 (Michigan St. was the only one that didn't go over I think). I did a couple small bets on 2 of them and have been noticing the others coming in. A lot of slow 1st halfs but everybody turns it on in the 2nd half.

Correction: It was 6 out of 8 2nd half overs for the sweet 16. Michigan St-Kansas & Xavier-Pitt were unders. Just checked it. But all of those 6 came in easy.

What does this mean for the Elite 8? I have no god damn idea. But I always like to think of stuff.

For what it's worth, I think players have a tough time with these dome stadiums in the first half. It's a weird background. I think they adjust in the 2nd half. Lots of open 3s were missed by teams in the 1st half. Now it's the 2nd game for these teams on these courts so maybe they'll have a better feel in the 1st half.

Sunday Play
1* North Carolina-Oklahoma UNDER 165.5
It's always dicey taking a UNC game under, but the Griffin-Hansborough matchup creates a situation in which each team's main man isn't going to find the going so easy on the offensive end. Sure the game will be fast, but I don't expect either team to reach its offensive shooting % or efficiency averages.

25-6-1, +17.55. Can I get a witness? If a tout were to claim he is 25-6-1 in the tourneys, people would call him a damn liar. .

Already on Carolina-Oklahoma under 165.5. Still ok to play at 164.

Adding:

Michigan State-Louisville OVER 138, 1*
Izzo says his boys can and will run with the Ville. Both teams are really good defenses, but at this point, so are the Os. Pace is crucial and if pace gets to 135, we should be fine.

03/29/2009 08:21:53 2 Play Parlay: Wagered $415.00 to win $300.00 Unsettled
CB 19 3/29 MICHIGAN ST VS LOUISVILLE LOUISVILLE (-300)
CB 21 3/29 OKLAHOMA VS NORTH CAROLINA NORTH CAROLINA (-320)

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“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

Adding:
Michigan State-Louisville OVER 64, 1st half, 1/2*
What the hell, only a few games left in the tourney. Like the over for the game and Lou has been starting fast, so I'll take the first half value also.

A wise old gambler once told me that if you like a game at one price, you should love it if it's cheaper. Cover % improves by about 5% with a 1.5 point move on a total this size. I'll just buy more over.
Another 1/2* on
Michigan State-Louisville OVER 136.5

Huge shoutout to Coast! Went 5-0 in Vegas with his plays including a great start by telling all my friends that the Memphis-Missouri over was a lock.

Went 9-2 overall.

Thanks again.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Coast went 8-1 in the sweet 16 and Elite 8. I don't blame him for that Louisville-Michigan St. game going under. I blame Rick Pitino. He did a horrible job coaching. The players never had a sense of urgency and especially in the last 8 minutes. Nobody tried to drive the lane. They took so much time off the shot clock on offense. Then they needed to start fouling with 3 minutes left and they didn't. They let Michigan St drip the clock away. It was awful.

Thanks, Rick. There are only a few things in life that are a bigger rush than collecting at the window in Vegas.

And yes, Beardown, Rickie P got himself crossed off my Xmas card list this year. The two guys whom the media says are geniuses...Rickie P and Calipari...didn't exactly distinguish themselves with their in-game adjustments this weekend.

I'm going to count that Michigan State game as three losses, as I had a game bet for a unit, first half bet for a half, then another 1/2 unit game bet. So I went 1-3 yesterday, -1.2 units, to bring the total to
26-9-1, +16.35

I wasn't going to play this game tonight, but then I got to thinking...(I know that's dangerous). Oregon State plays deliberate, princeton style offense. UTEP hasn't seen that junk this season and they don't strike me as a terribly patient defensive team anyway. Thus, I suspect Oregon State is going to find shots a bit easier than they do against better defensive teams or conference opponents that see their stuff more than once. And UTEP is going to want to speed up the game because that's what they always try to do. This is the first game of a three-game championship series, and I suspect that as UTEP sees the Beavers' sets, they will get used to them. Might look at unders in game 2 in ElPaso and certainly in game 3 (if there is one in Corvallis)...but tonight...I'm going over...

UTEP-Oregon State OVER 131.5, 1*

Ding Ding Ding. Cleared it by 12 points.

There are a lot of reasons why I'm a loser. But I'm thinking to myself, as I track this game on the internet, in a game that nobody cares or knows about except for gamblers, I'm actually having fun doing this. It's fun to follow a nothing game even if it's on the internet when you have money on it. It's actually more fun cuz you know you are one of a select few following it. I'm hitting the refresh button and saying, with 5 minutes left in the game, "they're on pace to get 133 and you know UTEP needs to foul cuz they're down.". Not seeing the game or knowing any of the players is kind of cool.

Coast rolls on. 9-1 since Thursday for me.

Beardown,
If you are going to follow nothing games on the internet that only a gambler (or true fan of a team) would care about, let me give you another tool to help you be a true degenerate. For many games (like last night's), you don't have to refresh scores at a score site, you can watch the play by play on an animated gametracker.
http://www.cstv.com/media/livegame.html

Also, last night's game and the other one or two in this three game CBI championship series are on the HDNet channel.

27-9-1, 75%. I'd like to tell you I always hit 75%, but I'd be lying. Hope some people are cashing because it may be awhile before I get hot like this again.

Comcast cable doesn't carry HDNet. Thanks for that gametracker link. I'll use that.

You mean you are not a documented 90% over the last three years? How can you call yourself a capper?

Great job. I'd tail you but I am so cold I would jinx your run.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Loss on ND-Penn State brings record to 27-10-1.

I have a lean on the Friday night game between UTEP and Ore. State. Back later if I decide to play it. (Game tips at 9 pm CT).

One play so far for Final Four Saturday:
North Carolina-Villanova OVER 159, 1*
Nova can and will play fast with anybody, and they've done it several times this year in games vs. high tempo teams like Providence, Marquette and Syracuse. (More than 150 possessions in games versus those teams). And none of those teams play as fast as UNC, which is 8th in the nation in pace (74 possessions/game) and first in the nation in offensive efficiency at 123.8 (1.238 points/possession). The pace and open court style of both teams should make this game look a lot like an NBA game. Over/under on shot clock violations: 1. I think both teams are in the 80s here and one team reaching the 90s or even hitting 100 would not surprise me.

no play on ore st-utep. leaned under, but didn't love it. wanted a better price than 134 but others saw it the way i did. not buying it now at a worse price...132.5...after steam.

27-11-1 in the tourneys. Going to play a 1/2 unit on over 152.5 in the championship game. No play on the game, but I'll be rooting for Mich. State.

I did the over at 152.5 and Carolina -7. Both teams are moving at an unreal pace. They don't need a shot clock for this game.

Very similar to UNC/Villanova - high scoring 1st half, horrible shooting 2nd half.

Not sure this goes over now since UNC can't score in the 2nd half and MSU isn't doing enough..