I don't think Bears fans realize just how much the Bears gave up on this one.

To start, I will call Kyle Orton for a 5th round draft pick a wash since I'm pretty sure some team would have given them that straight up.

Therefore, the Bears gave up two first round picks and a third round pick for Jay Cutler.

This is the kind of move that a team makes when they feel they are one player away from winning a championship. Take a look at the Bears WR's and tell me that is true. Take a look at the Bears offensive line and tell me that is true. Take a look at an aging defense and tell me that is true.

I like Jay Cutler and feel he is a very good quarterback. However, he is not the JC the Savior as many seem to be making him out to be. He's not Peyton Manning. He's not Tom Brady. He's a top ten QB. He makes the Bears much better at QB.

The problem is that this trade makes the Bears worse over the next 2-3 years. First round picks are valuable as much as Bears fans want to rationalize it. The fact that Jerry Angelo sucks at drafting offensive talent doesn't make this trade any better. The fact that washed up offensive talent is "more willing" to come here because of the QB doesn't make this trade any better.

The Bears gave up a chance at drafting three quality NFL players and two of those in the most talent rich round in the draft. This is my biggest problem with this trade. The Bears were not a QB away from being the best team in the NFC. If we had a WR you could count on and an offensive line without any holes I would be absolutely loving this trade. To me, it's a win now and forsake the future trade when I think the ceiling for this team is winning the NFC North this year.

Kyle Orton probably wasn't the long term answer. I wanted them to draft a QB this year. I think he was a decent short term answer.

This trade was a failure if the Bears don't make the Super Bowl in the next 3 years because the loss of those two first round draft picks will really be felt by then. I don't even know what you would call this trade if Bears fans eventually find out that the Broncos were happy to be rid of Cutler for legitimate reasons.

I think that getting Jay Cutler is a positive but it won't pay off in terms of winning and championships. I hope I'm wrong.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I guess someone has to play the role of Nas while he's away. What's next Boiler Dick, a race baiting story?

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You are thinking way too short term. This is not just about now or next year, this is about the next 7-10 years.

Sure, the Bears could have drafted 3 quality players with those picks, but they also could have wasted them on busts.

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"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

No one should plan 5 years ahead in the NFL let alone 7-10 years. Things change week to week in the NFL. Take out two top all-time QBs in Manning and Brady because Cutler will NEVER be as good as them and there are very few things that are the same today as they were 7-10 years ago.


True, but that's not a reason to stop trying. Championship teams are built through the draft.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I'm just shocked that so many are completely ignoring the terrible history in the NFL of big trades like this and the teams that sent out all those draft picks.

I'm trying to think of the last really beneficial trade for the team that gave up the draft picks. Maybe the Bears will be the first but the bar is set incredibly high on this one.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

How do you know Cutler won't be that good?

Let's look at the stats.

Brady's 3rd year as a starter, 2003:

60.2 Completion %
3620 yards
23 TDs
12 INTs

Cutlers 3rd year as a starter, 2008:
62.3 Completion %
4526 yards
25 TDs
18 INTs

Looks to me at the same point in their career they are pretty similar and I think you could even make a case from the numbers that Cutler is better. Now obviously, Brady has turned into a great one, and I am not saying Cutler will be that good or even that close, but based on his numbers to this point I think you can say if he stays healthy he is going to be a darn good QB.

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"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

How do I know Cutler won't be as good as Tom Brady?

Do I really have to answer that?

If you think for a second that Cutler will ever be anywhere close to Tom Brady then you just validated the "Classic Bears fans overreaction" subject line.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I haven't been able to find a good race baiting story, I have been looking all night to .

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Good job on completely ignoring the stats posted to back up my statement.

And if you actually read all of my post you would see that I never said I was predicting Cutler would be that good. But you cannot deny that their numbers through their first 3 years should Cutler in the same place if not better than Brady.

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"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

Statistics can be used to say just about anything. Tom Brady doesn't even compare statistically to many of the games greats of all time but he is a consensus top 5 all time QB.

By questioning my statement that Cutler will NEVER be as good as Tom Brady you were questioning the validity of that statement. I don't see how it is even a point of discussion right now. You didn't say he would be that good but you are saying he could be.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Ok, well if being excited because the Bears finally pulled the trigger on a big deal to get a franchise QB is a "Classic Bears fan overreaction" then count me as guilty.

You take Cedric Benson, Rex Grossman, Marcus Harrison, and Kyle Orton. . . and I will be happy to stick with Cutler.

As Beardown said in the other thread, you have your mind made up and I am sure I am not going to change it.

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"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

But this isn't the prototypical "veteran for draft pick" trade. I could understand where that would be perceived as win now. If you get a QB who is 29, for example, you're going to get a guy with three, maybe four peak years before decline sets in. Then you're trading a future for the present.

But that's not this situation at all. Ceilings for QBs occur sometime around age 31. Cutler is 25. That leaves six full seasons until peak, and then another two or three years on the declining but still very productive side of peak output if he develops and performs according to a normal QB trajectory. That's still a lot of future. If things don't work out in the next four years, where are you. Well, you'll have a really good QB entering into his peak at age 29. That's not a bad thing. The window isn't even close to closing; it's just begun to open.

Taking the 5th for Orton trade as a even swap as you did, that leaves a first, third, and next year's first for Cutler as you said. Common wisdom holds that future draft picks should be discounted one round (this is generally accepted by most, perhaps all, GMs with some variations, kinda like the Jimmy Johnson chart. The value of the picks given up, right now, is that of a first, second, and third round pick. We know for certain the "value" of the first and third round picks; we're discounting for the second, but we can get a close approximation. Denver gets picks 18 and 84 next year, and (assuming completely average play from Chicago) the 16th pick next year, discounted to be worth the 16th pick in the 2nd round in value right now. So the Broncos received the value of the

18th pick = 900 Jimmy Johnson chart points
48th pick = 420 chart points
84th pick = 170 chart points

= 1490 draft points, or the value of the 7th pick in the draft.

Maybe you don't trust my discounting and want to consider the full value of the 2010 1st round pick:

16th pick = 1000 points
18th pick = 900 points
84th pick = 170 points

= 2070 points, or somewhere between the 3rd or 4th pick in the draft this year.

Is Cutler worth that? I don't see how there's a plausible argument that he isn't. What's the value of your average top 5 draft pick QB? Let's list them since 1998:

Peyton Manning
Ryan Leaf
Tim Couch
Donovan McNabb
Akili Smith
Michael Vick
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Carson Palmer
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Alex Smith
Vince Young
JaMarcus Russell
Matt Ryan

That's not a particularly high hit rate, and that's assuming that those three picks are worth a top five pick, which is doubtful because of the need to discount for present value. What you're getting instead for the #3 or #4 pick is a player not that far removed from the draft with a record of (at least) top-10 QB performance under the age of 25. Even if he were to plateau of at exactly what he is right now, and were to perform at that level for the next 8 seasons (a reasonable if somewhat pessimistic trajectory given his youth) wouldn't that easily be worth the 3rd pick in the draft? We're talking about consistent QB play through the 2017 season, with, at the very least, the possibility of something much more than that.

Now your response is going to be that the true measure isn't the value of Jay Cutler, but instead the value of Jay Cutler over Kyle Orton. That's a fair point, but 1.) how many wins difference is there between the 10th best (pessimistically) and 20th best (optimistically) QB in the league during the course of the season? At least the value added expected for the average top five draft pick, I suspect; 2.) the ceiling on Cutler is potentially much higher than 10th best, while the realistic ceiling for Orton is around league average; 3.) the chances of the bottom falling out of the Kyle Orton experience are fairly high, given the poor draft pedigree, the lack of effectiveness as the year went on (I understand about the injury, but still) and the pleothera or examples we have for QBs looking really good for about half a season early in their careers until the league catches up with them (Derek Anderson and Rex Grossman, for example).

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Fire Phil Emery

I'm excited the Bears have a franchise QB also.

I just don't view him as the savior that I'm hearing by many. Talk about how this is the greatest thing to happen to the Bears since 85 and how the Bears offense will immediately transform into this deep pass power offense is an overreaction.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

The typical "player for boatload of draft picks" trade has been either:

For a veteran or player already at his peak (Hershel Walker)
A rookie (Ricky Williams)
A player at a position with fewer expected years of production (both Walker and Williams)

There simply is no precedent for a 25 year old QB with a proven track record of very effective play.

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Fire Phil Emery

ESPN experts, local writers and some fans don't get it. They feel like grading this trade based on the Bears and Broncos records next season. That is so stupid. The Bears got the rights to a 10 year Franchise QB. The missed draft picks will hurt a little in the short run but we have a chance to build a team for down the road. Why don't some people understand this? In five years this defense will be totally different. I trust Jerry in making it good. He knows defense. Meanwhile, when he does, we'll still have Cutler and receivers by then.. We're gonna win the division next year too, by the way. Defense is good enough and offense is good enough. Does everybody forget that we went 9-7 last year with a bad offense and defense?

I acknowledge completely the value added by Jay Cutler. He is better.

However, championship teams are built through the draft. There are countless examples of this. Trades such as this have a terrible track record. This could be a completely different and unique situation, but so was future hall of famers Herschel Walker or Brett Favre becoming available, or can't miss prospect Ricky Williams. I doubt that there has ever been a blockbuster trade where the fans have said "yup, this is just like the bad trades of the past".

The Bears offense has many weak links. Kyle Orton was an average link. We now have a strong link there but he still has to throw to Rashied Davis and the pipe dream that is Devin Hester becoming a good #1 WR. He'll be taking snaps behind a deteriorating center, a second year "rookie" and someone with one foot out the door in retirement collecting one last paycheck.

I'm normally a big Bears optimist. However, I think we just solved one of our least important problems with no solution to our actual problems. Maybe Jay Cutler is the savior though. I have my doubts.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

The difference between Cutler and a draft pick is three years. At some positions that would be half a career. At QB it's usually the type spent on the bench learning what to do or the time spent on the field learning to not suck. 8 years of quality play is a career; that's what you're hoping for when you draft a player. Think of this like a draft pick; imagine they traded those picks for the third pick this year and got Stafford, only you know that he's good right now. This is a draft pick; if he develops normally, you have six years before he even reaches peak; add in a few declining years on the other end and you have a full career. You'd be crazy to say "it's all very well and good that they drafted a top 10, maybe top 5 or top 3 QB who can perform at that level until the end of the second Obama term if history is any guide, but why bother because the team has other holes."

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Fire Phil Emery

I think where the danger of overreaction lies is in the "Jerry Angelo can't draft anyway LOLOL" meme, which is both wrong (he's been an above average drafter in his tenure) and shortsighted. A bad top-5 pick can have disastrous long term consequences, both from a cap and performance perspective. If this doesn't work, which it very well may not, the Bears are going to be very bad for a few years at some point in the short to medium term, and all those people who were dying to "take a chance" are going to be calling for heads to roll. The risk here is very high (though less high, I think, than the average top draft pick), and failure would be disastrous.

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Fire Phil Emery

You keep repeating that when people aren't even arguing that. The argument is, Jerry sucks picking in the first rounds.

Chris Williams
Greg Olsen
Cedric Benson
Tommie Harris
Michael Haynes
Rex Grossman
Marc Colombo
David Terrell

Nobody would consider those picks "above average." 1 Pro-bowler in 8 first round picks is bad. Only 1 of those 8 was even a starter for the Bears last year, maybe 2 if you want to say we start 2 tight ends. After the first round, he's above average, but I don't think people are wringing their hands about the 3rd rounder the Bears gave up.

Can I assume then that in Brady's third year you were positive he was going to be a top-five all time quarterback? and if you weren't did you accuse of anyone who said he would be of "classic Patriot fan over-reaction?" That isn't to say Cutler will be better than Brady, he probably won't be, but to be 100% positive that he won't be after 3 years of play also seems like over-reaction.

Sample size of 8 = not nearly significant. The larger sample size indicates he's a good drafter. Three of those players were starters in the NFL last year- four if you count Benson, who was obviously a bust. And one of those players it's still way too early to tell. There's no magical quality that prevents a good drafter in rounds 2-7 from being one in round 1, and reading patterns into miniscule sample sizes when the larger ones say otherwise is just poor methodology.

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Fire Phil Emery

Something the Bears have not done well with ever, with the exception of Jim McMahon, and even he was injured too much to have been a franchise QB.

Between the draft, free agency, and trades (lets face it, Brady, Mannings, Rivers et all weren't going anywhere), Cutler was the best QB available, and the Bears got him. How can (maybe) overpaying slightly to land the best available player at the most important position in all of sports be a bad thing?

Columbo was too hurty here and I think needed a fresh start. He's turned into a pretty good OLineman for the Cowboys. The rest of those picks outside of Tommie is trash. Obviously, jury is still out on Chris Williams.

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Last year, Hester had a step or two on a DB and Orton shorted him about 10 times. That doesn't happen with Cutler. I think you'll find that Hesters numbers are much much better this year.

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"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

I probably wouldn't have predicted Tom Brady to become as good as he is but he is an incredibly unique case and his numbers really don't show how good he is. That is where the statistics can lie.

Jay Cutler isn't even a top 5 NFL quarterback right now. You may be right that technically Cutler could have a meteoric rise to all time great QB but you could make the case for nearly any starting QB right now. The bottom line is that Jay Cutler isn't likely ever to be the best QB in the league let alone one of the best of all-time.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Because taking the QB position from average to good doesn't necessarily take the Bears from average to good.

Can I assume that you believe the Bears offense will be top ten next year because of Cutler?

Either Cutler is the savior and turns Rashied Davis into a decent player and Hester into an actual #1 WR or the Bears really didn't improve and lost 2 chances to make major improvements.

This trade will only be good if the Bears luck into an unhappy WR looking for a trade and find a way through free agency to build an offensive line. In the short term, I doubt that happens.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

So I take it you are predicting Hester to go for about 1300 yards and 8+ touchdowns? After all, JC the savior has a rocket arm and can throw it anywhere on the field.

I can't wait for these 80 yard bombs that Hester is going to be catching every game. After all, it was only Orton's fault that Hester didn't dominate the league last year.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Rick, again, this deal is long term. Yes, the Bears and thier fans are hungry to win right now. Does it make them an elite team in the NFL, as it stands right now, probably not. But remember, the NFC rep from last year's Super Bowl was 9-7, and played horribly the last part of the season and were left for dead by the experts predicting the playoffs. The NFC Rep from the SB 2 years back was a wild card team with a very Cutler-esque player at quarterback. This move instantly gives the Bears the best QB in thier division, and with some minor tweaking of WRs with the already upgraded OLine, you can pencil them in for probably 10 wins, which is more than likely going to win the NFC North. All the Bears need to do is to get into the playoffs, and has horrible as they played last year at times, they missed the postseason then by just the skin of thier teeth. Win the NFC North, and anything can happen. The Bears put themselves in a great position to do just that with this Cutler move. Win the NFC North should be the goal for next season. Win the Super Bowl before, say, 2012, and this move is validated.

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No, it doesn't. Check out who had the better numbers last year between Cutler and Rodgers.

Winning the NFC North next year is only a slight improvement on this year. The Bears should have done it this year.

Of course. I'll be 100% wrong if Jay Cutler wins a Super Bowl here.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

They missed the playoffs last year. They make it this year and thats an improvement- period.

As bad the Packer defense was at times, Cutler played on a worse overall team and still put up excellent numbers. He made the probowl in a conference littered with several damn good QBs.

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Aaron Rodgers: 28 touchdowns, 13 interceptions. 4038 yards
Jay Cutler: 25 touchdowns, 18 interceptions. 4526 yards

I don't really want to argue that Jay Cutler isn't good because he is but I think that the Cutler/Rodgers comparison gives a little perspective as to how he has some work to do to dominate the NFC.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!