I'm tired of this "Bears overpaid" claim.

http://nflblogs.profootballweekly.com/AroundtheNFL/2009/04/consult_the_chart_bears_traded.html

Consult the chart: Bears traded equivalent of top-10 pick, Orton for Cutler

First things first. You know that draft trade value chart? You know, the ones that are all over the Internet that assign mock point values to draft picks? Jimmy Johnson came up with one of these years ago, and now one version of it has floated from one end of cyberspace and back and now finds itself on any page that comes up when you Google "nfl draft."

Well, I was talking to a scouting director who laughed when I brought it up a few years ago. He informed me that, yes, every team including his assigned values to picks based on years of charting the success rates of players, round by round and pick by pick, also taking into consideration the salaries each of those spots earn plus a few other factors.

And what he said was that the version that you and I see online is not necessarily the one NFL teams use. Certain teams, for instance, value top-10 picks lower because of the financial commitments and success rates of those players being out of whack.

But for sake of argument, let's use the one everyone sees and come up with a value for what the Bears paid to get Jay Cutler. They traded No. 18, No. 84, a first-round pick in 2010 and Kyle Orton for Cutler and the No. 140 pick.

Add the values for 18 (900 points) plus No. 84 (170) and subtract No. 140 (36). And though the Bears surrender a first-rounder in '10, NFL teams tend to drop the value of a future pick by one round, so a first-rounder next year is worth about a second-rounder this year. For sake of this argument, let's assign a value of that pick equal to this year's No. 35, the third pick into Round Two. Add that value (550) to our previous subtotal and we get ...

The Bears gave up 1586 points worth of pick, which is close to the 1600-point value of the No. 6 pick this year, plus Orton, to get Cutler.

And the beauty of the deal is that he's signed, sealed and delivered -- with no contract negotiation. Cutler has three years left of a six-year deal. Last year's No. 6 pick, Vernon Gholston, signed a five-year deal worth at least $40 million but up to $50 million.

Now do you think the Bears overpaid? They pretty much know what they are getting with Cutler -- unless there are concerns about his maturity -- as opposed to gambling on a college player who never has played a down in the NFL. Who would you rather have, Gholston and Orton or Cutler? That's an easy choice.

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Du hockey comme dans le temps

great reading. they still overpaid. thats ok though, as long as they got what they want, which apparently it is. i appreciate the fact that they are taking a stab at it, rather than remaining in middle-of-the-pack purgatory. im not slamming the trade, i just dont think jay cutler is worth all that was given up. its a big risk.

How did the Titans and Cardinals do with thier 1st round QB picks (both picked BEFORE Cutler) manage this past season?

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By that logic why even talk about them in the off-season then? They're not winning or losing any games.

Give me some names that indicate that. Many of his high draft picks are terrible.

Good
Forte, Olsen, Chris and Tommie Harris, Berrian, Vasher, Tillman, Briggs, Alex Brown.

Not sure
Bennett, Harrison and anybody else from last years draft or 07. I'm not holding out much hope for them. Mark Anderson.

Horrible
Bazuin, Wolfe, Okwo - these 3 are absolutely awful, glaring mistakes. Benson - terrible and Bradley was taken too early and hasn't panned out. After Haynes left he spent 2 years inactive or on practice squads and is now out of football. Screw Mark Colombo he is fine for the Cowboys but he didn't do anything here. Metcalf was never really any good.

Tommie Harris is very good, maybe one of the top 5 DT in the league...when he produces. He could be so dominant but I think he is lazy and I liked that FA signing.
Chris Williams leaning towards bad, You should not draft an injured player. Still waiting on Manning (and Hester.) They may have even screwed Hester up. Dvoracek didn't exactly blow me away last year.

Gage and Wade are the only other ones who were okay. I think they were later picks but they were never great.

Everybody else he has drafted was garbage.

Orton will be a free agent next year and they would have had to over pay for him or start all over from scratch. I thought 2 firsts and a 3rd or 2 firsts and a player should have been enough for Cutler. Since the Bears have that 3rd round compensatory pick the Bears really didn't give up that much to get a really good, possibly franchise, QB. Sorry but losing Orton is not that big of a deal he is not very good.

Maybe the people we could have drafted will be fantastic players, maybe Cutler will fail here, but I am so glad they are taking that chance. I think you guys are nuts to not be overly excited about this.

They made the playoffs. What is your point?

The Titans succeeded with a journeyman QB through free agency and the Cardinals succeeded with a seemingly washed up former great QB who got back to his pro bowl form.

If your point is that not all first round draft picks work out I'll agree. Wouldn't the success of those two teams show that you can get a player in free agency who will help you win without giving up a ton of draft picks?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Rick my point is that you feel the Bears gave up too much to get a proven QB and now they are short draft picks. Well, the Titans and Cardinals respectively used very high draft picks on QBs who rode the pine last year while thier teams went to the playoffs. So the Bears gave up a couple of picks to get a proven QB who, barring injury, will not be sitting on the bench ever during any game that is not presesason.

And yeah, you can get a guy in free agency but a Collins or Warner type guy is not the answer for the Bears longterm, and futhermore a like acquisition would have made the Bears no better.

I could be wrong, but I doubt you would feel this say if Orton went to school at Iowa or Illinois.

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Slow down Nas. The defense needs to start playing at the level they ought to be playing. I don't know what I'd do there or how to fix them.

So you dislike the trade too? What are you arguing about then? You just have a different reason.

A few points however.
18 touchdowns, 12 interceptions is not bad. It is average. It is a better ratio than Cutler had in Denver. The total yardage was worse but td/int is a more important statistic.
Who said Orton was the best quarterback since Jimmy Mac? Anyone who thinks he was performing better than Erik Kramer or Jim Miller did is an idiot.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Spaulding, I think he's talking solely about the offense. A great QB can take a bottom feeder offense to at the very least middle of the road instantly.

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You are relying too much on stats. Orton was suppose to be a game manager and not make mistakes. Cutler, with no defense or running game, was asked to take the team on his back when other teams knew they were going to pass. I don't see how anybody would take Orton over Cutler if you watched them play.

Sure Frank this move makes them mor competitive. Even if they average 20-30 points a game. But they've got to play defense better than they did last year.

Welcome back Nas.

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You would be.

I really like the situation Orton is going into in Denver and I think he'll surprise people. Brandon Marshall is in another stratosphere to Devin Hester.

I rooted for the Bears to do well first. I rooted for Orton to do well second. Those two went together for a while. I was ready to give up on Orton if he wasn't better next year than last year. I expected and hoped Orton would throw for 3500 yards, about 21 touchdowns, and about 10 interceptions. I see Cutler going 25 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. I have said all along that Cutler is a clear upgrade over Kyle Orton.

Just remember that when you think I'm biased because of the school he went to that I've been 100% right on Orton so far.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Who is taking Orton over Cutler? No offense, but it seems that you don't really read what I'm saying sometimes.

Let me make this clear.

Jay Cutler is better than Kyle Orton. I'm actually a Jay Cutler fan before this whole whiny baby attitude he showed this off-season.

Jay Cutler will throw a higher number of interceptions here than an average good qb will. It is in his nature. You can see it when he is playing.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

...But I'm the board's resident meatball

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You know whats funny is if Cutler had been traded to the Redskins everyone would be bitching that Angelo should have gone after him and that the Bears don't step up and go after the big name free agent or player VIA trade and that this was our chance to get a potential franchise QB and we did nothing. But now that they actually did step up big time and make the biggest off season splash in the entire NFL people are bitching about the prospects of unknown draft picks and how great Kyle Orton was and that Cutler will never be Brady or Manning (even though he's only started 2 full seasons and his numbers match up well) and blah blah blah.. The Chicago sports fan never ceases to amaze me.

Looks like Nas has discovered Rex 2.0

At least this time he picked a good player to build up as the greatest thing ever to happen to the Bears franchise.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

The Bears improved the most important position...by a lot. Thats a very good thing.

And I was 100% right that he was.

Please give me an example of a way in which my bias manifested itself in an incorrect prediction.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Orton threw an interception approximately every 39 attempts last year, a game manager. Cutler, a gun slinger, threw an interception once out of 34 attempts (in over 1000 attempts) the last two years. Cutler also completed a significant higher percentage of passes the last 2 years, 63%, compared to 58.5% last year for Orton. And Cutler average yard per attempt the last two years 7.4 vs. 6.4 last year for Orton (5.8 for career).

And all this talk about draft picks the Bears have given up and how it will set the Bears back. What round was Brandon Marshall picked? The fourth round in '06. Two 100 catch seasons, '07 and '08. How about Eddie Royal, second round in '08 and over 90 receptions.

But how can the Bears improve the wide receivers without a first round pick this year or next?

Rick, do you think Cutler and Orton are comparable players? I don't think they are. He might throw more interceptions...I don't know but I can see your point there. I think there is also a higher risk/reward and he will have more attempts and I'd bet the offense takes more chances.

I'm a little nervous Nas and I are on the same side of a Bears argument. I don't think that's ever happened.

Well its good to see you posting. I had to be the one to post a race baiting story last week.

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You're grouping all of us into a population of 2 -3 people on a message board. I think the good majority of us are pretty damn happy about the move - I would most definitely be one of those bitching about the Bears failing to pull the trigger if, in fact they had failed to do so. I'm fairly confident in saying that I wouldn't be in the minority...

This move is the best thing the Chicago Bears have done in over 20 years. I haven't been able to read through all 4 pages in this thread, however I would probably find more reasons why Boilermaker Rick is a doubting Thomas for this team.

Fact is this: the Bears now have someone that will completely change the way they play (no more "Bears Football") which will only mean for bigger production from Forte and Olsen.

Even if Cutler is a complete bust, Bears fans can still be happy with the face that they at least made the deal.

No. Jay Cutler is better than Kyle Orton. I may have to put that as my signature so people understand it. What you say above is true. The Bears offense will take more chances with Cutler. He's much more of a gunslinger. He's Rex Grossman but good. Our QB play will be better. I just think that our team may not see a net benefit because we aren't simply a quarterback away from being a Super Bowl contender and having no picks in the most important draft round for two years is going to be harder to overcome.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Then how are you not completely ecstatic and optimistic about this trade?

Everybody please stop mentioning Rex Grossman. It's bringing me down.

I think Nas is right, and I say that as a boiler fan.

I'm optimistic about Jay Cutler. I'm just not optimistic that this team will see a net improvement. QB play will be better. However, two positions are going to suffer because of this trade on a team that is still trending downward. This team has a lot of holes and Orlando Pace and others from the free agent scrap heap aren't going to patch them up.

I guess we'll see. Maybe I'm wrong and Jay Cutler becomes a top 5 QB. I'll be glad to be wrong. I just don't see this team competing for a Super Bowl with the way it is currently constructed with or without Cutler. Without him we'd have a chance to draft 3 players in rounds that offer talented players. The Bears aren't one player away from winning the Super Bowl so I'm not going to get excited about the addition of one player. Going 8-8 next year won't be more gratifying with Jay Cutler.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Yeah I've toned it down. Besides, the one I posted last week about the Lyons mayor was obvious.

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Please compare the numbers of Ben Roethlisburger(better than his stats show though), Kerry Collins, and Kyle Orton and get back to me.

If you want, even take a look at David Garrard, Jake Delhomme and Joe Flacco.

There are three clear tiers in starting NFL QB's.
Good to excellent:Where Cutler is.
Average: Where Orton and the above are.
Bad: Probably 5-10 starters fit in to here.

It doesn't matter as talking about Kyle Orton isn't what this discussion is about but he's an average QB. Even Boers and Bernstein have admitted as such even though they don't really like him.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!