http://equibase.com/rotw/drf.pdf

I don't see any speed in this race but Papa Clem. Ran into monsters in his last two in Friesan Fire and Pioneer of the Nile, but with an easy pace early, I think he's got enough to beat this field. One horse to consider here is Flat Out who broke unprepared last time out in the Southwest and closed a ton. With a better break, he's probably one of the favorites.

Some others that deserve consideration - Old Fashioned and Win Willy who each have won a stake on the Arkansas trail. Win Willy strikes me as a bounce horse where Old Fashioned could move up off his last start.

I don't believe in either Win Willy (bounce, like you said) or Old Fashioned (breeding, doesn't want the distance). Papa Clem is probably my choice, with the pace factors you mentioned and the fact that I think he ran into the best 3yo in America in Friesan Fire (probably my derby choice, but I have some studying to do still).

I'm skeptical on Flat Out because it looks like the slow breaks are chronic and because the trainer has done nothing to work on speed- 1m workouts are awfully rare these days, and his "shorter" ones are quite slow 5Fs. He's gonna close and he's gonna need a pace to fire at. If Papa Clem sets slow fractions at the top and sits in on the rail, he may take it the Bill Daly way.

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Fire Phil Emery

I see your point though this is his first start at 2 turns. He might benefit from the added distance.

We're pretty good at this handicapping thing. Well, you are. General Quarters won another today as well. He already beat Musket Man, who looked good at Hawthorne. Pioneerofthenile has been kinda impressive in California, and might not have been the best horse out there. Friesan Fire is legit. I Want Revenge has looked great, and Dunkirk might have beat him a few weeks back with a better trip. What a night and day difference from last year.

EDIT: it was Quality Road, not IWR, that beat Dunkirk. I have trouble keeping Quality Road and I Want Revenge separate, for some reason.

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Fire Phil Emery

I love the Derby this year because there should be some value. There are alot of good horses but not one standout this year like Big Brown. Should have a fair amount in the 4 to 8-1 range to bet at and pair up in exactas. The interesting thing is going to be the pace factor, along with the post position factor.

Old Fashioned is out of the derby with a fracture.

I always figure that pace is less important in the derby than other races because, with so many participants and the need to establish decent position, the pace is always going to be fairly quick. It's unlikely that any horse is going to get on top and set soft fractions. That's not to say that pace is entirely unimportant, of course. The Pamplemousse would have guaranteed a fast pace, much as War Pass would have last year. It might be a bit softer without The Pamplemousse- without Old Fashioned too, for that matter- but I imagine it'll be plenty quick. I'll wait before making any final judgments however.

I love that Friesan Fire hasn't run since the LA Derby and won't run again; out of sight, out of mind. The 7 weeks would bother me if he had a no-name trainer, but I trust Jones. With Papa Clem looking nice yesterday and Giant Oak performing reasonably well at Hawthorne while looking outclassed against FF, the races down in the bayou seem to have been classy affairs.

I figure with the huge payouts in the exotics even for foreseeable combinations, exactas and trifectas are the way to go. You only get so many opportunities to hit mid-four figure scores on tris where the favorite wins and an obvious horse comes in second, as happened last year (I'm still kicking myself for tossing BB entirely because of perceived value, not realizing how high the exotic payouts would be anyway; I had Eight Belles and Denis of Cork in the two and three spots below both Colonel John and Pyro).

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Fire Phil Emery