I did a fairly exhaustive preview of the Kentucky Derby last year and plan on doing so once again this year, time willing. But before I start talking about some of the horses, I figured I'd talk a bit about bankroll strategy.

The Kentucky Derby is either the biggest crapshoot on the horse racing calender, or the biggest opportunity. With anywhere from 15 to 20 entries, a bad break from the gates or poor position around the first turn can ruin a horses chances. That's not all; if the pace is too fast, the speed horses that like the front are going to burn up and not last the 10 furlongs. If the pace is too slow, the horses in back are never going to catch the relatively fresh horses running double digit lengths in front of them, especially having to go the long way around the second turn. Despite being the most scrutinized race of the year, favorites have won only four of the Derbies since 1980: Fusiachi Pegasus in 2000, Smarty Jones in 2004, Street Sense in 2007, and Big Brown last year. Notice however that the race has become more "predictable" over the past couple of years; favorites have taken the last two, and Barbaro was the second choice in 2006.

Still, we're not that far removed from bombers like 2002 winner War Emblem at 21-1 and 50-1 Giacomo in 2005. Chaos is certainly possible, and there are a lot of unknowns. None of these horses has run longer than a mile and an eighth yet; they'll have to go a mile and a quarter. Some haven't raced on real dirt. Some are battling nagging ailments. Some are going to draw difficult posts.

That being said, the Kentucky Derby is the one race of the year where being a chalk-eater can be a good thing... if you use it to your advantage. Take last year for example. Big Brown was the prohibitive favorite at 2-1. Only four horses: BB, Colonel John, Pyro, and Eight Belles went off the board at better than 10-1. The favorite won and Eight Belles came in second, hardly an unforeseen possibility. Still, the exacta paid a little bit more than $141. Had you put $40 on BB to win you would have gotten $80 back. Had you played BB on top of every single horse in the race, you would have gotten $103 back, and that's without using any handicapping skill whatsoever to determine the second horse, and you would have only bet $38.

It'll be a bit of a different dynamic this year. There aren't going to be any prohibitive favorites, but five horses have separated themselves from the pack. Quality Road won the Florida Derby in rather impressive fashion. I Want Revenge has owned the New York Circuit after having left the polytracks of California. Friesan Fire won all three of the Louisiana preps rather convincingly against some classy competition. Pioneerof the Nile comes out of California with a string of graded stakes victories. Finally, Dunkirk, the relatively unraced mystery horse, came in second in the Florida Derby while closing strong and traveling the long way around the middle of the track. All five will be under 10-1, and a couple will be around the 3-1/4-1 range with the rest sitting from 5-1/8-1.

There's a quality second class of horses as well. Papa Clem looked much the best last out in the Arkansas derby, betting two graded stakes, including one-time "it" horse Old Fashioned. Musket Man isn't getting a ton of respect but did win two lower-end preps and looked good in the process; he's only lost once in his career. Regal Ransom and Desert Party have dueled out in the desert at Dubai; unfortunately, we don't have a ton to compare them to because of their international travels. Square Eddie looked solid as a 2 year old, was injured, and finished a decent third on polytrack in his last out;will he improve from the needed work off the layoff.

There's more, and I'll get through them all as we get closer. Offer up your thoughts and let's see if we can't win some money this year.

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Fire Phil Emery

Updates from today.

- Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby winner Quality Road is out due to his quarter crack re-opening.
- Friesan Fire lighted up Churchill with a sizzling 5 furlong workout this morning.
- Chocolate Candy also looked good this morning with a solid 5 furlong workout.

There's still a lot of data to be looked at, and all the variables haven't been put on the table yet (horses are still working out, a couple haven't shipped yet, and we don't know the post positions yet) but there are still a few horses that I can say, with as much certainty as one can in this game, won't hit the board on Saturday. These three are absolute tosses:

Mine That Bird: One of the bad things about having so many repeat graded stakes winners in the Derby is that it doesn't take all that much in earnings to get into the race, because the top 10 or so entries absorb so much of the money. Mine That Bird might be the worst entry I've seen in the Derby; he's definitely worse than any entry from the past two years. After winning a series of ungraded stakes and beating a weak field in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes at Woodbine, Mine That Bird regressed terribly in the BC Juvenile, finishing last out of 12 entries. He failed to hit the board last out in the Sunland Derby, a race still waiting for graded status. His highest Beyer rating is 81, well below some of the poor efforts put out by top horses such as I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire and Pioneerof the Nile. He may go off the board at triple digits to one.

Summer Bird: Last year handicappers were stuck with two "Z" horses, Z Fortune and Z Humor, one of which was a legitimate threat to hit the board, the other of which was an allowance level runner. Fortunately for us this year, both Birds are almost certainly going to finish up the track. Summer Bird may end up being the better of the two, but he was also a maiden as late as March 19th and qualifies for the Derby by way of finishing third in the Arkansas Derby. The speed figures for that race came out surprisingly high for both brisnet and the DRF Beyers, but he still couldn't pass a tired, injured Old Fashioned down the stretch. Summer Bird has absolutely no early speed and will sit in the back of the pack early on. Unless he gets a perfect ride (and his jockey is low percentage C.R. Rosier), he could quite easily be hung out wide on the first turn. Even if he doesn't, he'll have to circle the field late. Maybe one to watch for the summer, but not yet.

Advice: I wrote my paean to Advice a week ago, but now let's return to earth. Advice looks like he needs a rubber track to win; he missed the board at Sunland in his one effort on dirt with no real trip excuses, saving ground until the final turn. He fired nicely last out in the Lexington, but that was a weak field, and the speed figures are bearish. Like Summer Bird, he's going to be near the back of the pack, complicating the situation; he may have gotten the rail at Sunland, but it's a bit tougher at Churchill on the first Saturday in May. The chances of taking a huge step forward on a surface he doesn't seem to like while giving up a few lengths worth of distance on the turns are quite small.

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Fire Phil Emery

Scratch Square Eddie and, as Vince mentioned above, Quality Road. This opens up the door for two more horses, both of which will almost certainly be automatic tosses. Still, it could change the pace scenario for the race. The next two in, if I remember correctly, would be Join In The Dance, a bullet that placed in the Tampa Bay Derby but will never get the distance, and Take The Points, a California horse that didn't make a miraculous transformation on dirt in the Wood Memorial like I Want Revenge.

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Fire Phil Emery

Join in the Dance adds some interest to the race now. He'll be a rabbit for Dunkirk (both Pletcher horses). Rashard Lewis is a part owner of Join in the Dance so be prepared for the ESPn onslaught of stories about him like they did on Bluegrass day. Take the Points would give Pletcher 4 in the Derby this year.

Neither Join In the Dance nor Take the Points will be running, so we're down to Atomic Rain.

Atomic Rain: Participant in the Wood Memorial, had every chance to win after prohibitive favorite I Want Revenge was left standing in the gate. Lugged out quite badly during the stretch run and didn't look particularly impressive. Toss.

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Fire Phil Emery

I want Revenge was the story this morning with a very good workout of 47 and one fifth for 4 furlongs but was moving well and closed fast.

One more toss. It gets interesting after tomorrow after we learn the post positions.

Flying Private: There was a day when being a D Wayne Lucas horse in the Derby meant something. Actually, it still means something; it means the horse is going to come in 17th and go off the board at 50-1 or so. His best work thus far came in the 9F Lanes End, which is on polytrack, and he couldn't get the full distance there without tiring down the stretch. A month before that he was racing in ungraded sprints and optional claimers; the Lanes End entry was a "what the hell" type of maneuver from a trainer that simply doesn't have it anymore. He earned the money he needed for the Derby in the once important prep, came back in the Arkansas Derby, and lost ground in the stretch to a horse that suffered a season and possibly career ending injury. Doesn't like the distance, doesn't like the dirt, and no tactical speed to speak of. Besides from that, how was the race, Mr. Lukas?

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Fire Phil Emery

Win Willy is out. Zito's Nowhere to Hide is now into the Derby. The horse has only broken his maiden and didn't hit the board in three stakes starts, but has 3 4ths to show for them.

Three more absolute tosses. I may have 2-4 more complete tosses after looking at the workouts and post positions a bit more, but after that I plan on using the horses somewhere in my trifectas, and I'll lay out exactly where and under what circumstances I'd consider using them.

Join In The Party: Todd Pletcher is 0-21 in the Kentucky Derby for his career, so it seems he’s adopted a new strategy: simply train every horse in the field. OK, maybe not quite, but he does have three entries in the field this year, more than any other trainer. Join In The Party is probably the worst of the three (although Advice, written about above, is no world beater either). Join In The Dance isn’t bred to go the distance, and so far that’s proven true; he tired badly in the Bluegrass after sitting on the lead at a fairly average pace and couldn’t hold off Musket Man in the Tampa Bay Derby after leading almost the entire way at a criminally slow pace. Those races were a furlong and a furlong and a half shorter than this one, yet Brisnet for some inexplicable reason seems to think that the “longer distance offers hope for improvement.” Really? If a horse can’t handle a mile and an eighth, why would he want to go a mile and a quarter? None of that matters to Todd Pletcher, however, who’s happy to send Join In The Dance out to the front to quicken what looks to be a sluggish early pace in order to soften the field for his stalker/closer Dunkirk, a legitimate threat to, at the very least, hit the board on Saturday. Pletcher would be more than happy to see the speedy, stamina-less afterthought stagger home if that’s the price to pay for his first Derby win with the superior Dunkirk.

Nowhere to Hide: It’s tough to believe that the horse that has finished off the board in each of his graded stakes attempts is going to be running in the Kentucky Derby, but Nowhere to Hide cobbled together enough earnings to qualify; that’s what happens in a year with so much separation between the top and the bottom of the pack. Nowhere to Hide won his maiden in a low priced maiden special weight at Calder in December and hasn’t been particularly close to winning since, lacking both early speed and late punch, although he does have a penchant for passing tired horses late. There’s an allowance race somewhere in America this weekend that’s a little bit weaker because Nowhere to Hide is running in the Derby. Interesting fact: Shaun Bridgmohan will be the 8th jockey to ride Nowhere to Hide in 9 starts.

Mr. Hot Stuff: The Polytrack races have every handicapper a little befuddled this year, perhaps even more so than usual with I Want Revenge stepping off the rubber looking like a Grade III type and onto dirt looking like the favorite for the Derby. I’m willing to give the benefit of the doubt to horses with some accomplishments out at California if I can find an excuse for some of the slow times. Not so with Mr. Hot Stuff, who took up the show position in both the Grade III Sham and Grade I Santa Anita Derby, losing to the cream of the California crop in The Pamplemousse and Pioneerof the Nile respectively. Third is respectable in a high class prep, but the way Mr. Hot Stuff did it in each instance was less than flattering. Lugging up the back, jockey Corey Nakatani did an spectacular job of fighting through traffic and staying on the rail to save ground on the turn for each race rather than losing ground on a wide trip. That’s admirable, but good luck doing that in a field of 18 or 20 as opposed to the 7 in the Santa Anita Derby. Whatever optimism one might have had went up in smoke when he drew post 3, where he’s likely to get crunched and bumped headed into the first turn as well. This is the type of horse that would need everything to go right to hit the board- a preference for dirt over polytrack, a perfect pace setup, and a perfect trip. The breeding (half-brother to last year’s Sham, Santa Anita Derby and Travers winner Colonel John) suggests polytrack; the pace is likely to be slow, favoring horses near the front, and the trip is going to be rough as Nakatani is outclassed in this group, notwithstanding the good rides previously.

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Fire Phil Emery

Here are the post positions. Forgive the crappy formatting:

1 West Side Bernie Stewart Elliott Kelly Breen George and Lori Hall 30-1
2 Musket Man Eibar Coa Derek Ryan Eric Fein & Vic Carlson 20-1
3 Mr. Hot Stuff John Velazquez Eoin Harty WinStar Farm LLC 30-1
4 Advice Rene Douglas Todd Pletcher WinStar Farm LLC 30-1
5 Hold Me Back Kent Desormeaux Bill Mott Winstar Farm LLC 15-1
6 Friesan Fire Gabriel Saez Larry Jones Vinery Stables and Fox Hill Farm 5-1
7 Papa Clem Rafael Bejarano Gary Stute Bo Hirsch 20-1
8 Mine That Bird Calvin Borel Bennie Woolley Double Eagle Ranch & Bueno Suerte Equine 50-1
9 Join in the Dance Chris DeCarlo Todd Pletcher Rashard Lewis, Jake & Reed Ballis, Reagan & William Swinbank 50-1
10 Regal Ransom Alan Garcia Saeed bin Suroor Godolphin 30-1
11 Chocolate Candy Mike Smith Jerry Hollendorfer Sid and Jenny Craig Trust 20-1
12 General Quarters Julien Leparoux Tom McCarthy Tom McCarthy 20-1
13 I Want Revenge Joe Talamo Jeff Mullins David J. Lanzman & IEAH Stables, Puglisi Racing, Charles Winner
3-1
14 Atomic Rain Joe Bravo Kelly Breen George and Lori Hall 50-1
15 Dunkirk Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith 4-1
16 Pioneerof the Nile Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert Zayat Stables LLC 4-1
17 Summer Bird Chris Rosier Tim Ice K. K. and Jayaraman Vilasini 50-1
18 Nowhere to Hide Shaun Bridgmohan Nick Zito My Meadowview Farm 50-1
19 Desert Party Ramon Dominguez Saeed bin Suroor Godolphin 15-1
20 Flying Private Robby Albarado D Wayne Lukas Grand Slam Farm LLC 50-1

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Fire Phil Emery

Dunkirk and Pioneer of the Nile get to try and be the 11th horse since 1900 to win from the auxillary gate. Big Brown did it from 20 last year so it is possible. You need gate speed to get position coming out of there.

If you love I Want Revenge, you have to like that post draw. The odds are very spread out. 4 horses at 5-1 or less and no one at 15-1 or less.

Brisnet posted here: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/sites ... pps5-2.PDF

West Side Bernie: Any consideration I may have entertained of including West Side Bernie in my trifectas absolutely disappeared when he drew post one. In this age of 20 horse fields, post 1 is arguably worse than post 20; at least Big Brown has shown that it is possible to win from the far outside. West Side Bernie has been everywhere and won nowhere, and he would have been one of my first tosses if not for the decent effort he put out in the Wood, placing behind morning line favorite I Want Revenge and putting up a big speed figure. However, the trip was easy, and he had every chance to beat I Want Revenge after the latter's absolutely dreadful start. The likely slow pace is only going to compound the problems he's likely to have. Toss.

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Fire Phil Emery

You think it's going to be slow? I don't think I've ever seen a 'slow' opening half in the Derby because horses and jockeys really get their horses going early to avoid traffic.

I think it will be slow relative to the Derby. Join in the Party and Regal Ransom might set fractions somewhere around 46, maybe 46 and change, but I figure that the rest of the horses following after (including a lot of the best ones) will be happy to sit around 47 and change for the first half. I can see where Dunkirk or maybe Hold Me Back could make a big move wide on the second turn despite horses like I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire, and Pioneerof the Nile having a ton of energy to end. Not so much with a West Side Bernie.

A lot of the presser types this year have histories of burning up when they're on the very front; I think for that reason the jockeys are going to give the rabbits some leeway to start. If I thought Join In The Party could make 10 furlongs I'd be concerned. I am concerned about Regal Ransom.

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Fire Phil Emery

I've gone back and forth on this one. I feel pretty OK about it, but I can still be talked out of it if I read a very convincing argument to the contrary.

Papa Clem:Winner of the Arkansas Derby, Papa Clem is one of the few horses in this race that offers at least the promise of early speed. Indeed, one of the surprises (at least to me) in his Arkansas Derby victory was that he rated nicely off the lead despite the less than blazing fractions. That was probably wise; he has a habit of tiring late when sitting in front of a hot pace, but then again most horses have that problem.

Everything before the Arkansas Derby is subject to interpretation. He finished a well beaten second to Friesan Fire in the Louisiana Derby, but the track was wet and he may not have liked the slop. He only won one race in the four before the Louisiana Derby, but those were on polytrack, and he did finish in front of I Want Revenge in the RB Lewis. If you isolate that effort in the Arkansas Derby, you see a horse that in his one effort on fast dirt won a Grade II prep and posted a decent speed figure in doing so.

Dig a little deeper and it looks uglier. Papa Clem was all out at 9 furlongs to beat luminaries like Summer Bird and Win Willy, one of whom was an auto-toss for the Derby, the other of which would have been had he not been scratched. The DRF notes that he "wore down [the] leader", which is true, but the fractured kneecap the leader was running on may have had something to do with his wearing down as well. That it took that much effort to pass Old Fashioned- a horse that didn't especially want to go 9 furlongs anyway, injury or no injury- doesn't speak well of Papa Clem. Also, while I'm not a huge believer in weight making a difference, he was only carrying 118 during that race, an eight pound difference in what he will be carrying on Saturday (

Still, in a race that is bereft of early speed, I was hesitant to toss Papa Clem completely until reading some of the clockers' reports coming out of Churchill, which are suggesting that he's still sore from the effort in Arkansas. That makes sense; if you do trust the speed figures that came out of the Arkansas Derby, Papa Clem ran what was to this point the race of his life by far. It may take more than three weeks to recover from that type of effort.

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Fire Phil Emery

Musket Man: I've debated what to do about Musket Man as well. Superficially, he has the most impressive record in the group, except for maybe Pioneerof the Nile: 5 wins in 6 lifetime starts, including victories in the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby and Grade II Illinois Derby. Brisnet gave Musket Man a speed rating of 104 for the Illinois Derby, but that seems quite optimistic, seeing as how Friesan Fire only earned a 103 in the Louisiana Derby and Dunkirk only a 101 in the Florida Derby (Quality Road earned only a 103 for that race). The DRF has Musket Man at 98 for that race, and a third handicapper I use who makes his own figures on the same scale at the Beyers had him at 96.

The connections are small-time players and have to be thrilled with their first trip to the Kentucky Derby. Unfortunately, Musket Man has a lot working against him. The breeding on both the male and female side scream sprint, and while he's handled 9 furlongs reasonably well, 10 could be an issue. He's working from the second post position, which severely hampers his chances; Curlin hit the board from the 2 spot two years ago, but Musket Man isn't Curlin. He's also training somewhat poorly by all accounts at Churchill and has looked tired at the end of his works in general. Musket Man may have been 8-1 or so in an era when win-loss records and "class", defined here as graded stakes victories, were more important than anything else. Today we know better. Use in the bottom slot on trifectas if you absolutely must, especially if you're constructing a ticket of all speed and pressing types, but I'll be tossing him.

With my toss of Musket Man, I'm left with nine horses I'll be using in some capacity or another.

I Want Revenge
Friesan Fire
Pioneerof the Nile
Dunkirk
Desert Party
Regal Ransom
Chocolate Candy
Hold Me Back
General Quarters

Write-ups on the capabilities, limitations, and how I plan on using those horses in my tickets shortly.

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Fire Phil Emery

I have only done my cursory glance through the Derby so far and I can't argue with your tosses. I'll do some more digging later today as I prepare my yearly dump on the card.

Vince posted the Brisnet past performances above. Here are the DRF past performances for those that are interested:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2009/pps/derbycontenders.pdf

The numbers are mostly the same. Brisnet has an interesting class and “prime power” rating that are worth at least paying attention to, but I find DRF’s speed ratings to be more reliable in general. I use both sets of PPs.

Andy Beyer of the Washington Post weighed in with his opinion today. He has a terrible track record as far as the Derby goes- he’s always the first to say so- but he’s a tremendous handicapper and it’s almost always valuable to listen to his opinions. He’s leery of the synthetic specialists, perhaps more so than I am. The article is here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/30/AR2009043001799.html

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Fire Phil Emery

Did you see his workout this morning? Impressive comes to mind.

Maybe, but I don't doubt that he can run off quick early fractions. In fact, that may be his problem; if he runs the first three furlongs in the time he worked them today, he's toast. He may have looked very good in what he was doing out there, but that soreness and fatigue is going to show up around the half mile pole. At this point I'm willing to let him beat me.

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Fire Phil Emery

I need to do more studying since all I have basically done is pass through the PPs but right now I am on Friesan Fire. I don't like the 7 week layoff but he's got that one move that seems to win the Derby every year.

A couple saturdays ago I was flipping around and found a derby qualifying race (maybe it was in NY?). The horse that won came from last place and I told myself that's the horse I want to bet in the derby. Problem is can't remember the horse or the race (I was gonna write it down too). If someone can help me out I'd greatly appreciate it.

That is I Want Revenge, who came from last to first in the Wood Memorial 3 weekends ago. He's the 13 and will probably be the post-time favorite (he's the morning line favorite).

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Fire Phil Emery

He's the fav? Damn. I'll probably throw him in a trifecta box but I like going with a horse with a little longer odds on an across the board bet. Thanks IB.

I've undergone a bit of a sea-change in how I'm going to play this race. It's simply too deep to go heavy on exotics, at least with my bankroll. I'll dabble, but I'm going to have to key a horse or two rather than all four of the favorites.

Anyway, on with the final nine.

Chocolate Candy: No one really knows what to do with the horses that have spent their entire time on synthetics. Handicappers faced this problem last year with Colonel John, who finished a disappointing sixth. Lots of traditional metrics simply don't work on the synthetic tracks. The overall speed of the race is slower because the early pace is slower. Early speed is less important because the horses tend to be bunched together more. Some horses simply can't handle one surface or the other; Curlin, a world-beater on dirt, finished fourth in the Breeder's Cup Classic last year. You look at whatever clues you can- pedigree, workouts, physical makeup and gait- to determine whether the horse will make the transition, but just as there are horses more fitted for turf, there are horses more fitted for dirt as well.

The Colonel John example, if taken too far, could lead one astray. True, Colonel John finished off the board last year, but he also faced a lot of traffic trouble early on and was bumped quite badly just out of the gate. He made a fairly impressive move around the second turn into the homestretch and for a second it appeared he'd finish in the money. No one was catching Big Brown that day, but Colonel John acquitted himself nicely. And Colonel John didn't end up disliking the dirt; his training sessions were the talk of Churchill Downs last spring, and he did come back to win the Travers, which is on the dirt track at Saratoga.

Where does this get us with Chocolate Candy? Like the other California horses, we have a horse with no dirt experience and speed figures that, had they been on dirt, would have led one to automatically toss them out. But horses improving wildly off synthetic form isn't unheard of- I Want Revenge has done it just this year- and we don't know which horses will do it until they do.

An additional problem is that so long as these synthetic horses are sequestered in California, we don't have grounds for comparison with others. Are all the California horses just bad, and so it doesn't matter who is winning these races? Are the major California horses heads and shoulders above the horses in other regions, and so hitting the board in the Santa Anita Derby is a major accomplishment? You see the dilemma we face.

Here's what I figure. 1.) Chocolate Candy is not as good as Pioneerof the Nile on synthetics, and was not as good as I Want Revenge either. 2.) While bred to handle all surfaces, Chocolate Candy's workouts this week have been nothing like those of Pioneerof the Nile, to say nothing of the buzz Colonel John picked up last year. 3.) I Want Revenge's success on the dirt says very little about the ability of the other horses to similarly adapt.

I can't say to toss Chocolate Candy entirely if you're playing exotics, especially trifectas or superfectas, and your opinion of him will probably depend upon your opinion of Pioneerof the Nile. Leave Chocolate Candy out of the top spot and factor him into any combinations where you have Pioneerof the Nile above him, just to save yourself in case those California horses really are that good.

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Fire Phil Emery

If you want all the speed figures side by side IB, here you go

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/Bloodho ... ent#EIGHTH

Pioneerof the Nile: We face all the same problems we saw with Chocolate Candy much more acutely with Pioneerof the Nile. PotN has dominated the California circuit, or is at least the last remaining of the horses which was dominating the California circuit (The Pamplemousse won his fair share of stakes out there but was injured in the hours leading up to the Santa Anita Derby). All the same caveats apply here: times are slow, never raced on dirt, etc.

When I was first looking at the likely pace breakdown, I thought PotN would be one of the horses rating just off the leaders in the second tier of horses, but guys that know more about energy distribution and whatnot say that he's more likely to save his best kick for late, and that he does have a rather nice closing kick. That's not surprising for a horse that's been so successful on synthetics, where late turn of foot is vital. If that is the case, however, PotN is going to face the prospect of working into a soft pace with relatively fresh horses out in front (assuming they can get the distance): Desert Party, I Want Revenge, and Friesan Fire all look to be well positioned right behind the rabbits. Traffic issues are always a concern from back there. Even more interesting is that he'll have to deal with dirt getting kicked into his face for the first time, something he's never experienced before. That'll be compounded, as will his potential problems with the surface, if there's moisture on the track, which there may be.

Still, there's lots of things to like about PotN, starting with the four straight graded stakes wins in California. Jockey Garrett Gomez chose PotN over Dunkirk, so that gives some indication of his opinion of the abilities of the two horses. He's trained well over the dirt track at Churchill, although that's not dispositive (see Colonel John example above). Finally, trainer Bob Baffert claims that he thinks PotN will step forward, not back, on real dirt, but of course that could all be bluster.

When I started the week I figured that I would apportion about 15% or so of my bankroll to plays with PotN on top. I don't feel that strongly about the horse anymore. If this were a turf horse from, say, France, with exactly all of the same attributes, Pioneerof the Nile would be 20-1 or so right now. He might be an underlaid 20-1, but still. The nature of synthetic racing is fundamentally different than that of dirt racing, and taking a horse at a short price during a switch is a recipe for disaster, especially when the talent in this race is so bunched together anyway even assuming he takes a step forward on dirt. I'm going to say, with hesitation, keep him out of the top spot.

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Fire Phil Emery

Regal Ransom: Arguably the lesser of the two Sanoor horses, Regal Ransom won the UAE Derby after finishing second on two separate occasions to stablemate Desert Party (Desert Party finished second in the UAE Derby). I think this came as a bit of a shock and (maybe) a welcome surprise to the Godolphin folks, who were expecting Desert Party to be their main horse this year and figured Regal Ransom would be at his best at middle distances. That's not quite how things worked out, and while Regal Ransom was all out to hold on at 9 furlongs, the longer distance race was the only one of the three graded stakes he did win.

In an ordinary year with front runners with more staying power, Regal Ransom would be regarded as a rabbit for Desert Party and nothing more. Yet none of the real strong horses this year want to sit on the front, and if Regal Ransom can make 10 furlongs, this race is his for the taking. Genuine rabbit Join In The Party and no-hoper Atomic Rain will be out in front as well, but if Regal Ransom can rate at all (and he doesn't need to be absolutely loose- he was in a pretty heated duel in the UAE derby early) he might just hold on to win it. More likely is that he spits the bit at the eighth pole and fades. The only question in my mind is whether he fades to second or third, or fades to the back of the pack.

If you're going to cover yourself with Regal Ransom on top, you'll get a very generous price (30-1 ML) although he might go off the board a bit lower than that. Including him on top of trifectas or superfectas might be expensive, so I'd advice maybe sticking him on top of some other front running types (Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge, maybe Papa Clem) in exactas or playing a couple of favorites in the Woodward/Derby double with Regal Ransom in the second position. I'll probably use Regal Ransom in the second spit in a couple of trifectas, the third spot in quite a few, and I'll play two doubles with Einstein and Court Vision in the Woodward with Regal Ransom in the Derby.

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Fire Phil Emery