Desert Party: The second half of the Godolphin duo, Desert Party was the main bullet in the revolver of the folks in the Emirates all through the winter, and everything seemed to be according to plan until the UAE Derby last time out when he was beat by his stablemate Regal Ransom. There are a lot of reasons (excuses?) for the loss; Desert Party was gaining on Regal Ransom at the wire, and with another furlong probably would have passed him; the rail was supposedly a bit speed biased that day; Desert Party had some traffic issues.

Horses shipping in from the UAE have performed dreadfully in the Derby, despite the willingness of Saudi royalty to spend ungodly amounts of money on yearlings every year. Still, it's possible to learn too much from history, and the middle eastern connections are no reason to toss the horse alone, especially when he's looked so good in training before today and when he's spent more time in the states than other entries. Besides, Desert Party did run in the states as a 2 year old, winning the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga (sadly, that makes him the most accomplished as a 2 year old in the field).

But, similarly from the learning too much from history file, a lot of people are acting as though the 19 post is nothing more than a slight inconvenience because Big Brown won from the 20 position last year. Big Brown had what was probably the absolute ideal trip considering how far he started on the outside, and he still got hung four wide on each turn, meaning he lost about 6 lengths total. Is Desert Party really so much better than the others in this race that so much ground loss is unimportant? If he were a closer like Dennis of Cork last year, maybe he could pull a maneuver towards the rail immediately. But as someone that's going to want to sit close to the pace, he simply doesn't have that luxury.

That doesn't mean toss him, however. I wouldn't necessarily recommend a Godolphin exacta box, but it's not unreasonable to think that, even more so than the California horses, the success of one is going to correlate with the success of the other. I doubt he can get the top spot because of the ground loss, but if the pace is fast and the closers are taken out of it, he could be right there for second or third.

One last thing to watch; unlike just about every horse in the field but Friesan Fire, Desert Party has had some success on a wet track, and there's some thinking that his physical make-up might be particularly adapted to running on a track with a bit of moisture. If the track comes up wet on Saturday, upgrade Desert Party a bit, maybe even consider him on top and definitely play him below Friesan Fire.

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Fire Phil Emery

Hold Me Back: Every year there's an "it" horse that picks up steam during Derby week and goes off the board a good deal lower than its form might suggest. Last year was Court Vision, who disappointed in the Derby but has had a very nice career on the turf thus far (he'll be one of the main contenders in the Woodward Stakes just before the Derby on Saturday). These wise guy picks tend to live up to the old saying that the definition of a value pick is a horse that loses at a big price.

Needless to say, Hold Me Back might be that horse this year after a series of impressive workouts. This is especially important for Hold Me Back, who has spent most of his career on polytrack and thus offers handicappers few clues as to how he'll handle the dirt surface at Churchill Downs.

Luckily, the task isn't quite as daunting as it was for Pioneerof the Nile or Chocolate Candy, because Hold Me Back does have one start on dirt in the Grade II Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct last November. It's tough to draw conclusions from the Remsen. First, the two year old races have been especially formless as far as three year old racing goes, and just about every major two year old stakes winner has fallen by the wayside this year. Horses develop between November and May, and extrapolations only get you so far.

Second, the pace in the Remsen was very soft, giving the deep closer Hold Me Back little chance to catch up to the relaxed frontrunners. The 1-2-3 horses at the first call finished 1-3-2, and the closers dropped double digit lengths behind- 14, in the case of Hold Me Back. He did have a bit of a wide trip on the second turn as well, but he's going to have to live with that with his style, and I'd expect no different on Saturday.

After a layoff, Hold Me Back came back to win the Lane's End Stakes at Keeneland, going from second-to-last to first to score the visually impressive victory. He came close to repeating the feat a few weeks later in the Bluegrass but just missed against General Quarters. Those major moves are common on the Keeneland poly, where horses don't start running until the home stretch. That might be a bit tougher on dirt, especially with a soft pace.

"It" horses aren't always busts; Denis of Cork also picked up his fair share of insider buzz last year and at least finished in the money. Whenever a horse trains well on track, you have to at least adjust your sights to see whether there's anything there. I've held off on a write-up of Hold Me Back because I couldn't figure out what to make of him myself. I've probably watched the Remsen more than any other race this season, and although it's tough what to make of it, we did learn one thing: Hold Me Back isn't going to undergo a I Want Revenge-type transformation on the dirt. At best, he'll be good enough to hit the board, and even to get there he'll need a bit of a pace meltdown up front and some luck through traffic. If you're big on Dunkirk, think about filling in Hold Me Back on the bottom end of exotic wagers, but even then only sparingly.

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Fire Phil Emery

The Oaks \ Derby double & the Oaks/Woodford/ Derby pic 3.
How about Rachel Alexander w/ All ? Double
Rachel Alexander/Proudinsky w/Einstein w/Court Vision with All
The Derby I like Desert Party ,but that one julep away from changing!

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I think this is a bad year to play the ALL button on any doubles just because some of the Derby Horses are so terrible. Mine That Bird has pretty much 0% chance of winning for example. I know there's always Giacomo, but even Giacomo looked better on paper than some of these dogs. You can save significant money by tossing the five or so no-chancers.

I'd avoid the Oaks/Derby double this year unless you have a really strong opinion against Rachel Alexandria, and I don't know how you could. The Woodford/Derby Double could offer some good value if you feel good about the Woodford and if you want to play a horse like Regal Ransom or Desert Party underneath (I think you'll get more out of the double than a straight win bet). I'd take a long look at Cowboy Cal for the Woodford as well, as he seems to prefer the 9F distance on turf. I think Proudinsky might be reaching the point in his career where he can't follow up a good effort with only 3 weeks rest (BTW, Proudinsky has won two Grade II stakes his last two times out, and this is the horse Big Brown edged in his first and only try on turf. I think we don't give BB nearly enough credit...)

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Fire Phil Emery

Four horses left to go. I'll try to have write-ups of all four by this evening, but the last one or two may have to wait until tomorrow morning. All of my write-ups and betting strategy will be up by tomorrow before 11:00 AM or so, when I'll be heading out to Arlington to take in the local festivities. Just a note as well- I'm not necessarily ranking these like a power ranking, although in general the worst picks are first and the later picks are better, so don't necessarily read too much into one pick coming before another.

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Fire Phil Emery

How bout an early win place show prediction...I appreciate your knowledgeable posts...but no very little about horse racing

Here's my "gun against the head" prediction, but it really depends upon the pace and which horses can handle the likely wet track tomorrow.

Win: Friesan Fire
Place: I Want Revenge
Show: Regal Ransom or Desert Party

I can see a lot of horses getting that third spot. I think the winner is coming from the front of the pack, but if the pace is fast, Dunkirk is a strong choice.

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Fire Phil Emery

Crap, I better change my pick. I'm on Friesan Fire.

Hey, I'm on a hot streak. One for my last one.

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Fire Phil Emery

Dunkirk: If you were to pair together any two horses to create the derby winner in a few years time, you could have done a lot worse in 2005 than hooking up Unbridled's Song and Secret Status. Unbridled's song was the posttime favorite in the 1996 Kentucky Derby but was compromised by foot problems and a wide trip from the 19 post. Secret Status, on the other hand, was the winner of the Kentucky Oaks and finished second in the 10 furlong Alabama Stakes, so there's no real question about Dunkirk's breeding. His pricetag reflects as much: $3.7 million is a lot to pay for a one year old.

The genes look great, but there are question marks everywhere else. Dunkirk has only run three races in his short career and would be the first horse in over a century to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a two year old. In his lone stakes attempt, he finished second in the Florida Derby to Quality Road, who perhaps would have been the favorite had he not been scratched with quarter crack problems. Dunkirk made a huge move on the second turn and pulled even with Quality Road at the top of the stretch but faded late.

How good was the Florida Derby? The DRF first assigned Quality Road a speed figure of 103 for the race, which would be right in line with Friesan Fire's effort in the Louisiana Derby and I Want Revenge's effort in the Wood Memorial, but they later upgraded the score to 112 for Quality Road and 108 for Dunkirk. That 108 gives Dunkirk the highest speed rating in the race previous to the Derby (I Want Revenge had a 113 in the Gotham two races ago) but lots of people are skeptical about the upgrade. Brisnet, for their part, assigned him a speed rating of 101, which is good not as stratospheric as the DRF/Beyer figure (although they work off similar scales, the numbers don't exactly equate, so a 101 for one sheet isn't equal to a 101 for the other.) By way of comparison, Friesan Fire once again earned a 103 by Brisnet in the LA Derby, and I want Revenge earned a 109 for the Wood Memorial.

Besides from the question marks surrounding that race are plenty of others. Can Dunkirk really get the distance? The breeding screams yes, but he didn't look like he wanted to go the 9 furlongs in the Florida Derby; adding another onto the race might be a stretch, especially if forced to go wide again. Dunkirk isn't a dead closer, but he is going to be coming from further back than most of the horses in the field, so he'd be at a disadvantage if the pace turns up slow. A sloppy track would work to his disadvantage as well; speed tends to hold up better on a wet track, as horses don't especially appreciate having mud kicked into their face. With the Derby being only Dunkirk's fourth start, there's some thought that he'll have some trouble with the traffic, a problem Big Brown didn't have to deal with last year being in the front and on the outside. Also, Dunkirk is smaller than most of the horses in the field, and if he's in the middle of the pack where he wants to be, he might have a tough time handling the bumping and positioning that happens on the backstretch.

The biggest problem for me is the pace question, which I keep harping on but I feel is important. If the horses out in front don't go too quickly, they'll have lots of energy for the final furlongs and the horses in back just simply won't be capable of catching up to them. It doesn't even necessarily depend upon how quickly the rabbits like Join In The Party and Atomic rain go; if Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge, Desert Party, even Papa Clem, Pioneerof The Nile, etc. stay disciplined and let the rabbits get out in front of them if they're going too fast, Dunkirk will be left having to make up a lot of ground late and probably having to do it by going wide around the second turn. A lot is going to depend upon his ability to get close to the rail on the first turn as well. Dunkirk drew the 15 post, which certainly isn't fatal to his chances, but he's not going to want to speed up and get to the second pack like, say, Desert Party at the 19 spot. If he tries to move in and meets a wall of horses that also want to sit back and make their move late, he might be giving up a lot of lengths.

I can easily see Dunkirk winning this, but way too much has to go right to justify the 4-1 projected on the morning line. 7-1 to 9-1 or so seems about right, especially with the rain projected. Demand value if you're going to make a win bet, and definitely use him on the bottom half of exactas and trifectas, especially with longer priced horses that also are going to want to make up ground late. If the frontrunners and pressers spend too much energy early, and if he gets a decent or better trip, this race is probably Dunkirk's to lose. I know that's a lot of ifs, but it's significantly fewer than most of the 20 horse field.

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Fire Phil Emery

General Quarters: I provide the storylines a day before they're pounded into your brain relentlessly! General Quarters is the only horse owned by Thomas McCarthy, a retired principal. You'll hear this once or twice, I'm sure, if you watch the coverage on ESPN and NBC tomorrow.

It's difficult to determine just what to make of General Quarters. He's the most heavily raced of the horses in the field, ahving run 11 times thus far at a full range of distances and surfaces, and one figures that experience will fair him well. He's also a two-time stakes winner, having crossed the wire first in the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs (dirt) and the Grade I Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland (synthetic), having won both by sitting a couple lengths off the lead and overtaking his tiring rivals doewn the stretch. Breeding is a concern, and he seems more cut out for middle distances on that basis, but the 9 furlongs didn't seem like too much of a struggle at Keeneland, even with a wide trip. He'll be in the right position pacewise, if he can avoid the crunch at the start of the race.

I was strongly considering using General Quarters very heavily in the third spot of my trifectas, and I'll still dabble a touch, but a work of caution; he hates the slop, and clockers took note of just how dissatisfied he looked on the wet track this week. His workouts noticably improved when the weather cleared up and the track dried out, but he may not have that luxury tomorrow. He's never raced on a wet surface before, so we don't have any substantial evidence, but he might throw out a clunker tomorrow. It's tough to feel too bad for the connections though: horses claimed for $20,000 as maidens at 2 don't often win multiple stakes races at 3. Asking for the Derby almost seems greedy at this point.

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Fire Phil Emery

Friesan Fire: I'm not a huge fan of derby jinxes, curses, or rules, especially when so many have fallen by the wayside in recent years. Derby favorites were cursed for two decades until, Giacomo notwithstanding, we've had a relatively chalky decade in the 2000s. No gelding could win the Derby since the 1920s Funny Cide in 2003. Street Sense broke the "BC Juvenile" jinx in 2007. Big Brown broke both the post 20 jinx and the three race jinx last year. There's others I've forgetten, but you get the point.

Friesan Fire has a few of his own. He's never run past 8.5 furlongs, when he'll have to go 10 furlongs Saturday. He's coming out of the Louisiana races which are traditionally weaker than their Florida, California, and Kentucky counterparts. His best work has been in the slop. He hasn't run in 7 weeks, and no horse has come off a layoff of that long. Etc.

Before harping on the problems, let's look at the positives for a moment. Friesan Fire has won three consecutive graded stakes races, a feat only Pioneerof the Nile has matched (and surpassed). He did it on dirt and, in the case of the Louisiana Derby, slop. He did it from the first post position, he did it from the middle, and it did it from the outside post position. He hasn't gone past a mile and an eighth, but he sure didn't look tired in the Louisiana Derby. His best speed rating is in the slop, but that doesn't mean the rating was artificial or that he's just a mudder; his time in the Louisiana Derby was more than a second less than his time in the Risen Star stakes at the same length, notwithstanding that mud tends to slow all horses down, even the proven mudders. Papa Clem, who got a good trip in the Louisiana derby and could muster no more than a well-beaten second, came back to win the Arkansas Derby.

The worst thing that's happened to Friesan Fire, in my mind, is that there's a good chance the track is going to be sloppy Saturday afternoon. I say that because many handicappers think he's only got a legitimate chance if it's wet; I think he's one of the two horses to beat wet or dry, and I want the bigger price on dry dirt. No matter; if the track is dry and Friesan Fire's odds fall considerably, I'll place a sizable win bet. If the track is wet and I'm getting 5-1 or worse, I'll spread out in trifectas and go for the big score that way. I think I Want Revenge can beat him, but there's less of a gap than most people think, and certainly less of a gap than I can justify for the morning line price.

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Fire Phil Emery

I hope people here on the board get some value out of these. I'll have one post after this one, some time tonight, on how I plan on wagering. At this point, given the weather forecast, a wet track is practically a certainty.

I Want Revenge: A middling California contender, I Want Revenge took a major leap forward when he stepped onto the dirt track at Aqueduct for the Gotham Stakes, earning the highest speed rating from both Brisnet and the DRF. His next race in the Wood was no less impressive, not so much for how quickly he ran it than for the way he won, breaking absolutely terribly and having to adapt his style from presser to closer.

Perhaps the one knock against him, ironically enough, was how easy he made it look in the Wood; if he was able to blow those horses away after being caught flat-footed in the gate, perhaps his competition in New York was second-rate. Both things can be true; his competition in New York was second rate; West Side Bernie, who placed in the Wood, is going to suck away a lot of wasted money tomorrow. Still, horses don't accidentally win even the weakest of Derby preps, and most horses in this field would have been out of the money had they faced such a threat.

The wet track could even be a benefit for I Want Revenge supporters looking for a good price. Friesan Fire is going to take a lot more money if the track turns up sloppy, and we don't have anything to indicate that I Want Revenge can't handle the mess. Tactically, he should be in fine position, sitting just behind the front-runners are the top of the second turn. If he goes off the board as anything but the favorite, even in the rain and mud, count your lucky stripes and bet generously.

I don't think people will get that carried away with Friesan Fire, however, and I think 7-2 or 4-1 is about what you can expect. I think the final furlong is going to see I Want Revenge and Friesan Fire pulling away from the rest of the field, with a variety of surging stragglers and tiring frontrunners competing for the third spot. May the best horse win.

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Fire Phil Emery

Saw this little nugget on a Derby post on bloodhorse

With Friday's action, here are some notable odds

Friesan Fire 4-1, favorite
I Want Revenge 5-1
Chocolate Candy 8-1
Papa Clem 14-1
Dunkirk 8-1
Pioneer of the Nile 8-1
General Quarters 8-1
Desert party 26-1

Barring any last minute changes I'm going with Hold Me Back. I will probably throw a little something on Musket Man too. My Dad is selling Papa Clem pretty hard but I don't think I'm buying.

I wouldn't make too much of those as the amount of the money is absolutely miniscule. There will be single win bets for as much as in the pool right now. The Oaks/Derby Double will-pays tend to provide a more reliable indication of what the odds will be at post time. I can't find the entire payouts- I'll post them when I do- but I Want Revenge is the favorite and Friesan Fire is the second choice.

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Fire Phil Emery

Finally, my plays.

I've toyed with a lot of different ways to handle this race. I've limited myself to a bankroll of $100. My first thought was that I was going to go exclusively trifectas with the four favorites on top, but that proved too pricey to get adequate coverage in the second and third positions. Then, when the tide seemed to be turning against Friesan Fire I thought about just sinking $50 into FF for the win and sticking with exactas from there on out. I'm not willing to do that at 4-1 though.

I'm going back to the exotics, but I'm going to cover my bases with exactas and swing for the fences with trifectas. Here goes.

$1 Exacta Box Friesan Fire/I Want Revenge/Regal Ransom/Desert Party/Papa Clem/Pioneerof the Nile = $30

This is my "two best horses in the race plus the early speed" exacta box. Notice that I did, after all, include Papa Clem.

$1 Exacta Box Friesan Fire/I Want Revenge/Dunkirk/Hold Me Back/Chocolate Candy = $20

This is my "two best horses in the race plus closers" exacta box. I'm more confident that speed will hold up than that the closers will get through, so my speed exacta box is larger. Also, I have Friesan Fire and I Want Revenge boxed twice, both to offset the lower price and because that's my highest confidence play.

$1 Trifecta wheel = $18

Friesan Fire/I Want Revenge over
Friesan Fire/I Want Revenge over
Desert Party/Regal Ransom/Dunkirk/Pioneerof the Nile/Chocolate Candy/Hold Me Back/Papa Clem/General Quarters/Musket Man

If that Friesan Fire and I Want Revenge exacta comes in, I've probably got the trifecta as well.

$1 Tri Wheel = $10

Friesan Fire over
Desert Party/Regal Ransom over
Desert Party/Regal Ransom/Papa Clem/Pioneerof the Nile/Musket Man/I Want Revenge

My speed trifecta.

$1 Tri Wheel = $10

Friesan Fire over
Dunkirk/Hold Me Back over
Dunkirk/Hold Me Back/Chocolate Candy/Pioneerof The Nile/General Quarters/I Want Revenge

My closers trifecta. These trifectas act like win bets on Friesan Fire.

$30 + $20 + $18 + $10 + $10 = $88. That leaves me a little wiggle room in case something in particular catches my eye, possibly a Woodward/Derby Double. I may also play a very small superfecta play, something like

Friesan Fire over
I Want Revenge over
Desert Party/Regal Ransom/Papa Clem over
Desert Party/Regal Ransom/Papa Clem = $6

just to really go for the homerun. We'll see how I feel.

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Fire Phil Emery

According to the Oaks/Derby will pays, these are the expected odds for tomorrow:

1. West Side Bernie 57.31-1
2. Musket Man 33.00-1
3. Mr. Hot Stuff 54.77-1
4. Advice 74.77-1
5. Hold Me Back 18.85-1
6. Friesan Fire 5.46-1
7. Papa Clem 23.62-1
8. Mine That Bird 118.92-1
9. Join in the Dance 118.08-1
10. Regal Ransom 25.31-1
11. Chocolate Candy 19.62-1
12. General Quarters 29.00-1
13. I Want Revenge 4.69-1
14. Atomic Rain 132.46-1
15. Dunkirk 7.77-1
16. Pioneerof the Nile 8.85-1
17. Summer Bird 63.00-1
18. Nowhere to Hide 128.77-1
19. Desert Party 19.46-1
20. Flying Private 119.23-1

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Fire Phil Emery

I am working through my bets now but here is my initial thinking

Toss: 3,4,8,9,14,18,20
(I can see a West Side Bernie or Summer Bird as long shots to hit the board)

I have two thoughts in my end, not sure where to go with them.

1. I have no idea what to do with the Dubai horses. Both have talent but no idea what to make of their races.
2. I am hedging against I Want Revenge for one simple reason - Talamo. Yes, he's talented, but first Derby and he's all of 19 or 20. I could see a tactical error happening in the big field - getting rank early, boxed in or something.

The more I look at Papa Clem, the more I am starting to like him. Has enough tactical speed to get to the front or sit off the leaders flank and his Arkansas Derby win was probably running at fractions similar to today (46 for the half, 1:11 for 6 furlongs)

I'll have my bets in about an hour.

Well, this sucks: I Want Revenge is a scratch.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/50574/i-want-revenge-to-be-scratched

I have no idea what to do now.

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Fire Phil Emery

Someone read my comments! It was all about Talamo.

I'm completely lost now. Friesan Fire is going to get absolutely pounded at the windows. All of my bets are toast, or at least the logic behind them is toast.

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Fire Phil Emery

The Other Horse that will get pounded: Dunkirk - He will now come from the last post in the main gate.

As of now, i am looking at this:

Friesan Fire WP

Exacta Box: 2-5-6-7-15

Tri: 6,7,15/5,6,7,15/1,2,5,6,7,15

That's where I am at now.

My adjusted picks:

$1 Ex Box = $42

Friesan Fire/Regal Ransom/Desert Party/Papa Clem/Dunkirk/General Quarters/Pioneerof The Nile

$1 Tri Wheel = $12

Friesan Fire over
Regal Ransom/Desert Party/Papa Clem over
Regal Ransom/Desert Party/Papa Clem/Pioneerof the Nile/Musket Man

$1 Tru wheel = $15

Friesan Fire over
Dunkirk/Pioneerof the Nile/Hold Me Back over
Dunkirk/Pioneerof The Nile/Hold Me Back/Chocolate Candy/General Quarters/West Side Bernie

$1 Ex Wheel = $7

Friesan Fire over
Regal Ransom/Desert Party/Papa Clem/Pioneerof the Nile/Dunkirk/Hold Me Back/Chocolate Candy

$42 + $12 + $15 + $7 = $76

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Fire Phil Emery

IB, Hawk and others; thanks for the detailed info. It has been helpful and also enjoyable reading.

Too bad about I Want Revenge getting scratched but given my meager bankroll, that actually helped me decide on my exacta, which will be: Hold Me Back / Friesan Fire / Papa Clem / Regal Ransom. Off to Arlington I go....

Good luck all....

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

The only change I made to the above bets was I added West Side Bernie into my exacta and then came back with an exacta box of Papa Clem, Friesan Fire and Dunkirk to double up my bet with those 3. I also played Friesan Fire to win and doubled the place.

IB - I did get your reasoning on West Side Bernie and others. I stuck West Side Bernie thinking rail trip might sneak into it on a wet surface.

Had breakfast at Strecth Run on LaSalle.

WINNER - $5 across on LuvGov, race 3, took home about $48 on that one

Race 3- $1 Tribox Paid $78, 1-3 Ex Box $20 Paiid $139 and $10 on 1 Across paid me something...lol

Took $40 across on Desert Party in the Derby, using House money, had a second bloody mary and off to see Fergie and Maddux!

Beeting Cubs straight , conditional Bulls OVer 194.5

LET'S GO!@

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yeah It's Big Fan!

Assuming you meant seeing them at Wrigley, you were probably early. They retire #31 tomorrow, Sunday. If you are there then, too, then perhaps I will see you. I will be the guy wearing the Prior jersey.

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."