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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

For the first time in a long time, I'm actually really excited about this Preakness. I probably won't bet it, but there's a ton to watch here. Was Mine That Bird legit? Does Friesan Fire recover from the compromised effort? Will the filly smoke them all? And if she wins the Oaks, Preakness and Belmont, can we legitimately consider her a triple crown winner?

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Fire Phil Emery

I have a question on the filly's in horse racing, and I am no expert, but I think the Belmont is the longest of the Triple Crown, and didn't a filly win there in 2007, and I know this question is a little past due, but why did people get mad when Eight Belles ran the Derby, she is a filly, but it's not the longest race, so I think it wouldn't be a big deal, unless I am wrong somewhere, just a question I had.

If you believe ESPN's reporting, they reported yesterday that Rachel will not run in the Preakness due to already having the field filled.

Now ESPN is reporting she will run in the Preakness. These people need to get their facts before they report a story.

I don't think people got mad until something bad happened. I thought there was a general consensus that Eight Belles was a good enough horse for the derby, and she proved that last year. The problem was the breakdown, combined with the fact that she's a filly, and people assume there's some sort of causation. Horseplayers remember the Ruffian breakdown from a few decades ago as well.

It really isn't a big deal. Fillies run against colts all the time in Europe, and breakdowns are statistically the same regardless of sex. One reason you see more of that is the major stakes schedule in Europe is relatively back-loaded, so that most of the major races are held later in the year. There is evidence that fillies develop less quickly than colts, so they tend to lag behind in the spring of their 3yo years (when the triple crown races are run). It's not that they'll break down more, it's just that they tend to be slower. That's why Winning Colors winning the Derby in 88 was such a big deal, or why Rags to Riches winning the Belmont was a big deal, but Zarkava winning the Arc de Triomphe was news, but not a revelation; fillies win that race once every three years or so, on average.

There's also an inertia on the part of trainers and owners which tends to become all the more impassable when events such as the Eight Belles tragedy occurs. Why race fillies in major races when you can stay in sex-restricted races, and where the rate of breakdown is anecdotally (but not statistically) less? The trainer of Eight Belles took a lot of shit over having entered a filly that broke down; why put yourself through that?

The best horse in the country right now (Zenyatta) is a filly. The best three year old in the country right now is a filly (Rachel Alexandria). If those were my horses, I'd enter them into any race in the nation, restricted or not, and feel pretty good about my chances.

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Fire Phil Emery

Thanks Irish Boy.

Should I be wagering on this? any odds?

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"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

1.1 Million Preakness Stakes (gr. I, Race 12, 6:15 p.m.), 3-Year-Olds, 1 3/16 Miles (Dirt)
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer, Odds
1. Big Drama, J. Velazquez, 126, D Fawkes, 10/1
2. Mine That Bird, Smith, 126, B Woolley, Jr., 6/1
3. Musket Man, E Coa, 126, D Ryan, 8/1
4. Luv Gov, Theriot, 126, D W Lukas, 50/1
5. Friesan Fire, Saez, 126, L Jones, 6/1
6. Terrain, Rose, 126, A Stall Jr., 30/1
7. Papa Clem, Bejarano, 126, G Stute, 12/1
8. General Quarters, Leparoux, 126, T McCarthy, 20/1
9. Pioneerof the Nile, Gomez, 126 B Baffert, 5/1
11. Take the Points, Prado, 126, T Pletcher, 30/1
12. Tone It Down, Desormeaux, 126, W Komlo, 50/1
13. Rachel Alexandra, Borel, 121, S Asmussen, 8/5

I'm putting my money on whomever Irish Boy hates.

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Past Performances here: http://equibase.com/rotw/fullpp.pdf

I'm going to stick with Friesan Fire, although I'm not betting this race. He was hurt coming out of the gate and never had a chance. Rachel Alexandria is the best horse in this race, but she's going to be bet down. Mine That Bird is a complete toss, but I said that last time.

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Fire Phil Emery

I can see betting him back. I'm really on Pioneer of the Nile. I think he tired in the mud at Churchill because he had to be used early from the outside and that's not what he wants to do. With enough speed in this race, he can take back and make that one big run to the winner's circle.

I've heard a lot of talk about this filly so I decided to switch to ESPN and got this instead...



Really...is she the horse that is going to win the Preakness?

I am on that bitch

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"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

Stick to being a lawyer, IB.....

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There's a reason I wasn't betting this race, although 1.) I'm surprised by how good the price was on Rachel Alexandria, and 2.) that Mine That Bird might be legit. No matter. The favorite wins sometimes, and as I said earlier in the thread, Rachel Alexandria is the best 3 year old in the country of either sex. Friesan Fire just doesn't want the distance, it seems.

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Fire Phil Emery