Probables:

Mine That Bird
Charitable Man
Dunkirk
Chocolate Candy
Flying private
Mr Hot Stuff
Summer Bird
Brave Victory
Miner's Escape
Luv Gov

Post draw today.

Post Position and Odds:

1. Chocolate Candy 10-1
2. Dunkirk 4-1
3. Mr. Hot Stuff 15-1
4. Summer Bird 12-1
5. Luv Gov 20-1
6. Charitable Man 3-1
7. Mine That Bird 2-1
8. Flying Private 12-1
9. Miner's Escape 15-1
10. Brave Victory 15-1

Between Da' Tara last year (btw, hasn't won another race and was last seen losing a mid-week allowance race) and Mine That Bird winning the Derby this year, the oddsmakers are gunshy. No one in a 10 horse field over 20-1? That's kinda crazy, even though this isn't a stand out group.

I'm not buying the hype on either Dunkirk or Charitable Man here. I wasn't terribly impressed with the latter's effort in the Peter Pan. I know he's bred to run all day, but Dunkirk didn't particularly look like he wanted the 9 furlongs in the Florida Derby, and he didn't assuage those fears in the Derby going 10. He's supposed to get 12 in the Belmont now? I don't see it at 4-1.

2-1 would be an attractive price on Mine That Bird. I don't think we'll get it.

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Fire Phil Emery

The problem with the Belmont is that deep closers tend to struggle in the race. Stalkers or horses on the lead have a better chance to steal a race. I haven't even looked but probably won't do a lot. At 10-1 I might lay a bit on Chocolate Candy who I thought showed up in Louisville.

Agreed with the deep closers +1 I like Summer Bird and Flying Private and Charitable Man Exacta Tri boxes

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I'm betting both Charitable Man (6) and Dunkirk (2) as nice overlays here -- not sure why Mine That Bird is even odds Seems a bit crazy overfavored to me. Feel free to make fun of this post in about 15 minutes.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

You try starting a race running on your knees for the first 20 feet. You are correct about the price -- even money, but I think 2-1 is a more accurate price (in fact, I would say it is closer to 3-1.) Let us not forget this sage analysis a bit over a month ago:

Relax, IB, I'm just bustin' your balls... now go get your shinebox!

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

Going to try to get some back in race #13 on the sixteen horse, Lincoln Road.

Thought the Belmont was one of those races that just went too long for the way the horses were running. Props to Summer Bird and connections for taking advantage of that. Now a ways to go until the Breeders Cup. May Cowboy Cal rally and become the horse he once was (though he will not be running in any BC event. )

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

Good call on Summer Bird

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Hey, I'll be the first to admit that I bombed the Derby. I don't feel too bad about it; it's not like many people got it right.

I'm surprised Dunkirk made it as far as he did, and I was a bit surprised by his early speed, but the way the track was playing all day they must have felt they needed the front. 6-5 on Mine That Bird was a little ridiculous. In fairness for my Derby picks, I also hated Summer Bird, but I did feel like he was someone to watch for the later races, and double digits was an attractive price. Congrats to those that hit him. As for me, I've sworn off the Belmont after last year and didn't regret not placing a bet.

Major thumbs down to ESPN/ABC for not showing the Manhattan, by the way.

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Fire Phil Emery

I finally got to see the race. First impressions - Dunkirk ran his eyeballs out. I love how he came back after being passed by both Charitable Man and Mine that Bird. Borel cost Mine that Bird the race. HUGE move, but it was about a furlong too early. I still hate Kent D and that gay Cajun voice.

Thanks Spmack.Did well on that race.my lady did better bet her 1st superfecta 2-4-6-7 boxed it for $24 got back $420 somethin'. You think I'll get dinner outta this?

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Any winning amount over three bills requires crustaceans.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

I know we haven't reached the end of the 3yo stakes schedule, but I can't help but think about what might have been. In the winter and early spring, this looked like one of the strongest crops in recent memory, but a lot of the horses fell by the wayside. I Want Revenge, Quality Road, and The Pamplemousse each would have been single digit to one shots in the Derby, but all were injured before the race. Old Fashioned failed to develop as anticipated and then was injured to boot. Each horse that won their leg of the triple crown was uniquely suited to that distance; I don't think Rachel Alexandra wins the Preakness if it's at 10 furlongs or longer, and Summer Bird probably needed the full mile and a half.

I'll be interested to see just what the connections have in store for Mine That Bird from here on out. Assuming he made it out of the race feeling all right, I'd imagine they'd rest him for a week or two, then start preparing for the Jim Dandy and the Travers at Saratoga.

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Fire Phil Emery