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 Post subject: College Football, Week 1
PostPosted: Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:52 pm 
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Thu 8/31 06:00PM
8801 Boston College -14 -110 O 46½ -110
8802 Central Michigan +14 -110 U 46½ -110

Thu 8/31 06:30PM
8803 Eastern Michigan +3½ -110 O 55 -110
8804 Ball St -3½ -110 U 55 -110

Thu 8/31 07:00PM
8807 Temple +6 -110 O 40 -110
8808 Buffalo -6 -110 U 40 -110

Thu 8/31 07:00PM
8809 Florida International +12½ -110 O 48 -110
8810 Middle Tenn St -12½ -110 U 48 -110

Thu 8/31 07:30PM
8813 Northwestern -3½ -110 O 49 -110
8814 Miami Ohio +3½ -110 U 49 -110

Thu 8/31 07:30PM
8815 Minnesota -17 -110 O 57 -110
8816 Kent St +17 -110 U 57 -110

Thu 8/31 08:00PM
8817 Toledo +7 -110 O 51 -110
8818 Iowa St -7 -110 U 51 -110

Thu 8/31 08:00PM
8819 South Carolina -9 -110 O 44 -110
8820 Mississippi St +9 -110 U 44 -110

Thu 8/31 10:30PM
8829 UTEP -5 -110 O 55 -110
8830 San Diego State +5 -110 U 55 -110

Fri 9/1 10:00PM
8831 Nevada +9 -110 O 56 -110
8832 Fresno St -9 -110 U 56 -110

Sat 9/2 00:00AM
8839 Marshall +17½ -110 O 48 -110
8840 West Virginia -17½ -110 U 48 -110

Sat 9/2 00:00AM
8841 Hawaii +14½ -110 O 54½ -110
8842 Alabama -14½ -110 U 54½ -110

Sat 9/2 00:00AM
8845 UL Lafayette +31½ -110 O 45 -110
8846 LSU -31½ -110 U 45 -110

Sat 9/2 12:00PM
8847 Idaho +29 -110 O 65½ -110
8848 Michigan St -29 -110 U 65½ -110

Sat 9/2 12:00PM
8849 Vanderbilt +28½ -110 O 47 -110
8850 Michigan -28½ -110 U 47 -110

Sat 9/2 12:00PM
8851 North Texas +40 -110 O 55 -110
8852 Texas -40 -110 U 55 -110

Sat 9/2 01:00PM
8857 Wisconsin -4½ -110 O 54 -110
8858 Bowling Green +4½ -110 U 54 -110

Sat 9/2 01:00PM
8859 Florida Atlantic +28 -110 O 44 -110
8860 Clemson -28 -110 U 44 -110

Sat 9/2 00:00AM
8867 BYU +7 -110 O 51 -110
8868 Arizona -7 -110 U 51 -110

Sat 9/2 03:30PM
8871 Rutgers +1½ -110 O 55½ -110
8872 North Carolina -1½ -110 U 55½ -110

Sat 9/2 03:30PM
8873 Louisiana Tech +23 -110 O 47½ -110
8874 Nebraska -23 -110 U 47½ -110

Sat 9/2 03:30PM
8875 Northern Illinois +18½ -110 O 47½ -110
8876 Ohio St -18½ -110 U 47½ -110

Sat 9/2 03:30PM
8877 Akron +20 -110 O 47 -110
8878 Penn St -20 -110 U 47 -110

Sat 9/2 03:30PM
8879 San Jose St +26 -110 O 62 -110
8880 Washington -26 -110 U 62 -110

Sat 9/2 03:30PM
8881 Stanford +13½ -110 O 58 -110
8882 Oregon -13½ -110 U 58 -110

Sat 9/2 04:30PM
8883 Memphis +3½ -110 O 40 -110
8884 Mississippi -3½ -110 U 40 -110

Sat 9/2 04:30PM
8885 Utah St +10½ -110 O 47 -110
8886 Wyoming -10½ -110 U 47 -110

Sat 9/2 05:30PM
8889 East Carolina +11½ -110 O 57 -110
8890 Navy -11½ -110 U 57 -110

Sat 9/2 05:30PM
8891 California +2½ -110 O 54½ -110
8892 Tennessee -2½ -110 U 54½ -110

Sat 9/2 06:00PM
8893 Southern Miss +17 -110 O 48 -110
8894 Florida -17 -110 U 48 -110

Sat 9/2 06:00PM
8895 Western Michigan +5 -110 O 57 -110
8896 Indiana -5 -110 U 57 -110

Sat 9/2 06:30PM
8901 Syracuse +9 -110 O 46 -110
8902 Wake Forest -9 -110 U 46 -110

Sat 9/2 07:00PM
8903 Utah +6 -110 O 63 -110
8904 UCLA -6 -110 U 63 -110

Sat 9/2 07:00PM
8911 UAB +28 -110 O 47 -110
8912 Oklahoma -28 -110 U 47 -110

Sat 9/2 07:00PM
8913 Virginia +3½ -110 O 46 -110
8914 Pittsburgh -3½ -110 U 46 -110

Sat 9/2 07:00PM
8921 SMU +28 -110 O 57 -110
8922 Texas Tech -28 -110 U 57 -110

Sat 9/2 07:05PM
8923 Army -7 -110 O 49 -110
8924 Arkansas St +7 -110 U 49 -110

Sat 9/2 07:45PM
8929 Washington St +11 -110 O 46 -110
8930 Auburn -11 -110 U 46 -110

Sat 9/2 08:00PM
8931 Notre Dame -8 -110 O 48 -110
8932 Georgia Tech +8 -110 U 48 -110

Sat 9/2 08:00PM
8933 Kentucky +26 -110 O 62½ -110
8934 Louisville -26 -110 U 62½ -110

Sat 9/2 08:45PM
8937 USC -9½ -110 O 47½ -110
8938 Arkansas +9½ -110 U 47½ -110

Sat 9/2 09:00PM
8939 Houston -11½ -110 O 58 -110
8940 Rice +11½ -110 U 58 -110

Sun 9/3 05:30PM
8943 TCU -13½ -110 O 56 -110
8944 Baylor +13½ -110 U 56 -110

Sun 9/3 08:00PM
8945 Florida St +3½ -110 O 42½ -110
8946 Miami Florida -3½ -110 U 42½ -110



A few that jump out at me...

Northwestern has a rookie coach, new OC and new QB who will all be figuring out this offense in game one...and they are laying points on the road to a veteran Miami-O team? Not a good spot for the Cats.

Minny should have very little running game early in the year. In fact, their coaches admitted after the spring game they didn't have a starting RB. And they are laying 17 on the road? Even against one of the worst teams in America, this line is based on reputation not on reality.

SDSt is a 5 point home dog to UTEP? Everything went right for UTEP and Mike Price last year. SDS had stats that were better than their record, have a very veteran team, and with new coach Chuck Long, should be an interesting team to follow this year. By October, this line might look like an absolute steal. Will it be in game one?

Bet of the week (today anyway): Arkansas +9-1/2 vs. USC. Trojans another team that will be breaking in a new QB and key position players on the road in game one. This Arkansas team is a veteran one and will be in the hunt for the SEC West. The heat and humidity in the South the first weekend is often a factor, especially when playing mild climate (west coast) teams. I've seen more than one well-conditioned west coast team melt in the southern steam of late August.

Other dogs that look tempting: Bowling Green, Virginia.
Best game of the week: Cal at Tennessee


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:24 am 
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Coast, it's more than 6 weeks away.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:32 am 
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Yes dolphin, it is six weeks away. I have been sometimes accused of premature evaluations. But I've been on vacation from sports investing since April 1 when college hoops ended. I'm ready to get off the beach and back into the game.


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 Post subject: wagers
PostPosted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 6:21 pm 
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I know what you mean on the wagering layoff, I've wagered a liitle since April 1. My only big wager was one I made in March when I had the Carolina Hurricanes to win the Stanley Cup at 8-1 odds. Right now, I would say take the points with Central Michigan. I know it's high, but West Virginia will cover. I agree on Miami,Oh and Bowling Green.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:14 pm 
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hmmm...
Wisco - Bowling Green looks interesting.

and I think ND should be -18 vs. Ga-Tech :wink:

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2006 8:50 pm 
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So much for the early look best bet of week 1. Arkansas' All SEC RB gets in a bar fight and now is doubtful. With a new offense and a spotty QB, McFadden was THE key to the Hogs' O. Expect this line to go back up from 9 to 10. Another reason why you don't bet a game too early.

---------------

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. -- Darren McFadden, a Razorback tailback chosen for first-team All-SEC honors, has undergone surgery on a joint in his toe and is "doubtful" for Arkansas' season opener against Southern California on Sept. 2, coach Houston Nutt said Saturday.

According to a police report, McFadden was involved in a disturbance at 4:20 a.m. Saturday at Palace the Club, a Little Rock private club. When officers arrived, a fight was taking place in the parking lot while a crowd watched. McFadden told officers he didn't know the person with whom he was fighting, the report said.

The report said McFadden was taken to University Hospital for treatment.
McFadden suffered an open dislocation of the distal IP joint of his big left toe, according to a Razorbacks news release. The sophomore underwent surgery early Saturday morning in Little Rock to repair the capsule surrounding a joint. Also, a small pin was inserted in the joint to stabilize it.

Arkansas trainer Dean Weber said McFadden will not practice for several weeks and is unlikely to compete against USC. McFadden rushed for 1,113 yards and 11 touchdowns last season, becoming the seventh freshman in Southeastern Conference history to run for 1,000 yards.


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 Post subject: Hoga
PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2006 9:53 am 
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What an idiot. I think Arkansas would go with the highly recruited Mitch Mustain at quarterback. If Arkanansas can bring a defense, I would say they could beat USC. Now without McFadden the chances were slim going into the game, now there about gone. Miami and Florida State is on Monday Labor Day, not Sunday.


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 Post subject: wagers
PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2006 9:54 am 
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It's only 5 weeks away for these games and 6 weeks from today the NFL week 1 starts.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:25 am 
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A couple of early looks/plays for Week 1.

Cal-Tennessee Under 54-1/2
Both teams will have very good defenses this year and Cal’s defense may be one of the top ten in the nation. Cal has a top 5 defensive line, top 10 group of linebackers and a veteran secondary. The Tennessee defense had some issues in the line last year, but they have an unbelievable 14 guys on the defensive line who were very highly touted high school players. They have one of the top three defensive tackles in the nation. They have decent linebackers and a veteran secondary. Both teams have some questions on the offensive line, though Cal’s probably will be a bit better in game one. Cal has a gamebreaker running back in Lynch, but Ayoob’s inconsistent play at QB last year raises real questions about the Cal passing game. And Vols QB Ainge was also very inconsistent last year. I expect him to be much much better this year under the tutelage of new OC Cutcliffe, who had significant success in his previous term as Vols OC. I really expect Tennessee to snap back in a big way from its losing season last year and duel Florida and Georgia for SEC East supremacy. And I expect Cal to be right there with USC at the top of the Pac 10. These are productive exciting offenses to go with very good defenses. There will likely be a few big plays and more than a few attempts at big plays. But I expect the defenses to control the pace and style of the game. First one to 24 wins this game, but I won’t be surprised if neither team makes it to 20.

I already bought this one and locked it in. I don't expect it to stay at this number.


Akron +18 @ Penn State
It's a new year and I'll start it off fading Joe Pa again. He should have retired eight years ago and now after one good season, too many people think he's a God again. He's been a heckuva coach, no question. But he no longer has a program that gets the very best players in which he can simply reload every year. They have only 9 returning starters and their RB and wideouts back, but they're missing experience at a lot of spots. This is a classic look ahead spot for Penn State. Even when they were loaded last year, they sleepwalked through their first two games. This year, they have Notre Dame on deck and it is to be expected that Paterno will be very vanilla and show nothing in this game.

Akron won the Mac last year and has 18 returning starters back, with ten starters returning on defense. They have a very good QB and their entire offensive line back. They will be in the hunt for the Mac title and this is a big game for them.

This line opened at 20 and has already dropped two points. I'm going to watch this line carefully and I wouldn't be surprised if it drops under 17 before kickoff. I will wait awhile and make sure no injuries or suspensions crop up, but won't wait that long and miss that key number. I'll buy it before it goes below 17.


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 Post subject: wagers
PostPosted: Fri Aug 04, 2006 1:51 pm 
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With the suspensions to the Miami players this week, I haven't seen the new spread yet, but would have to think the game's a pick'em or Florida State favored.


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 19, 2006 2:01 am 
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The lines have moved and all of the lines on the games I played a few weeks ago are now more expensive. Nice to start the season being on the right side of the moves. Akron is now 16. I haven't played Kent State or Arkansas, but those lines are lower too. But the biggest move was the Tennessee-Cal total. I played the under two weeks ago at 54-1/2. All the totals went off the board soon after and now it's back on the board at 43-1/2. That ticket looks mighty good now. I love that under, but might just go for the 11 point middle.

A week to kickoff, looking at these home dogs...Miami O, Kent, Miss. State, SD State, BG, B aylor, Arkansas, Georgia Tech. Also like dog So. Miss at Florida.

Looking for a home favorite blowout? Nebraska. Have to lay 20, but they might cover that by half.

Reents, Miami is still -3-1/2. Suspensions did not move the line.


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 Post subject: wagers
PostPosted: Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:42 am 
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I am a big Miami Hurricane fan, but I would have to think when we get close to that game, more people will put the money on FSU, with the Canes top receiver and running back out. The best news is less than 2 weeks to go with the college season starting August 31.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:21 pm 
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It's now GAME WEEK.

Adding:
Nebraska -20 vs. Louisiana Tech
(-20-1/2 posted line @ Skybook, plus a free half point)
I won’t play many games this season in which I lay double digits, but I’m willing to do it here. The Louisiana Tech defense is perhaps the greenest in the nation at the beginning of this season, with just 2 returning starters. Gone are three starters from the line, all 3 linebackers and 3 from the secondary. Going against a team that has a veteran offense and likely will in the hunt for the Big 12 North title, it’s a tall order for the La Tech D in game one. Nebraska returns 8 starters on offense including QB Taylor, its #2 running back from a year ago and its top two receivers. With five returning starters in the offensive line, I expect the Huskers to roll in this first game against a green and over-matched La. Tech defense. I expect Nebraska to score more than 40 in this game. One of the two college angles I follow very closely is that teams that score 40 points or more in a game have been a 75% plus play ATS in recent years. Last year, teams that scored 40 or more last year were 165-44-5 ATS (I compiled that stat myself using closing lines) or 79%. I think Nebraska will fit that angle here. With La Tech breaking in a new QB on the road, it’s hard to see the Bulldogs scoring nearly enough to keep up. I also see line value here as I make this number between 28 and 34. Huskers 42-10.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:29 pm 
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In addition to the three plays above and the others mentioned above as possibles, I am now also considering Northwestern -4. I've changed my mind on this one. Emotionally, I have to think this NU team will rally around Fitzgerald and the Walker death and might play above themselves...at least for awhile. And in the first game, the fundamentals strongly favor NU. Their veteran OL and Sutton should run up and down the field against a very green Miami D. And with Miami breaking in a new QB, they likely won't score enough points to keep up.

PS...Not playing SD State. Aztecs opened as a 5.5 point dog but now are 1.5 point chalk. Value gone from that one.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:46 pm 
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Played Northwestern at 4 with free half point bringing it down to -3.5...,giving me four plays so far for week 1. Left on the table on the final list are home dogs Central Michigan, Arkansas, Kent State and Georgia Tech.


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:57 am 
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Coast, you are going to rely on a redshirt freshman QB to move the ball on Miami of O? Throughout the years it seems the redhawks have given NU trouble. I would have a difficult time putting my money either way on this game.


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 29, 2006 3:23 pm 
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Good point, Dolphin and normally I would not do that. But I expect the Cats to run Sutton behind that veteran O-Line and for them to have a significant edge in the running game over a very green Miami D. And Miami also has a new QB and not nearly as much back on offense as does NU. So I don't expect Miami to be very productive. I also think the "mojo" of Walker's passing will be with NU...at least for a few games until they get humbled and brought to earth by a much better team.


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 Post subject: BYU @ zona
PostPosted: Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:24 pm 
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BYU @ Zona (-7 on most areas at this point)

I look to Zona to make a statement on their status of one of the most improved teams (not to be a parrot for Phil Steele). I concur with his assesment that Zona will be bowl bound and think they will come out at home against a BYU team that should have some problems opening in AZ.

BYU is 3-15 ATS when opening on the road and Mendenhall returns only 4 defensive starters. AZ returns 9 defensive starters (both teams return 8 on the offensive side of the ball). AZ is 9-1 Su but only 2-5 ATS in home openers. I think that the defensive experience will make the difference here. After the Mackovic debacle, Stoops had the Wildcat drinking the kool aid and look for Jr. Henry to grind it out and run over BYU


a little taste only


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