At the risk of inciting a riot around here, I feel compelled to jump-start the “Bulls aren’t done dealing yet” debate again. And yes, I’m talking about KG. Before I go any further, I want to make it clear that I’m not necessarily lobbying for Garnett (not that it would matter if I am), but merely laying out the groundwork for things that may or may not go down based on both legitimate information and my own gut intuition…
Exhibit A
Garnett has 3 years remaining on his contract. However, he has the ability to opt out next offseason. Obviously, the Bulls will not be under the cap for years to come. So if KG opts out, there will be several teams (most notably the Lakers) scrambling to acquire his services, but the Bulls will not be among them. If Pax wants to make a run at Garnett, the time is now, not only because of the financial details on our end, but also because Minnesota may have no say in the matter this time next year if KG wants to make like a tree and get outta there.
Exhibit B
I’m not convinced they’re going to hold on to PJ Brown. League rules prohibit them from moving him for 60 days within the official acquisition, so he won’t be going anywhere until the 2nd week of September if he goes at all. Nevertheless, I just have a gut feeling that he’s not here to stay. Also, it doesn’t seem that he really wants to be here. This was his reaction after learning he was being shipped to the Bulls:
“This trade is something I'm not ecstatic or overjoyed about, but I understand it's part of the business”
So that leaves 3 questions. A) did he and his wife just fall in love with Oklahoma City and were they looking forward to returning to a city in shambles like New Orleans? B) is he dumb enough to think the Hornets have a better shot at winning than the Bulls? C) do he and his agent realize that this is temporary and the Bulls intend to move him later as part of a bigger package?
Exhibit C
Let’s not bother getting into the details of the cyclical Tyson Chandler argument again. To be brief… On the negative end - he plays limited minutes, limited offense, and has a terrible contract. On the positive end – he is only 23 years old and may one day become a quality player, at least from a defensive and rebounding perspective.
Here’s the crux of the situation, though. Which is more advantageous for the Bulls, which is a better bargaining chip, so to speak? Most teams would probably rather have a large expiring contract like Brown’s, allowing them to spend in the following offseason as they see fit, rather than take a gamble on a player like Chandler that hasn’t yet proven his worth. Moreover, a team like Minnesota would be significantly under the cap next year if they were to get Garnett off the books. It would take a bit of tweaking, however, but it’s certainly doable. They’d need to move 2 of the following 5 players – Ricky Davis, Troy Hudson, Marko Jaric, Mark Blount, Trenton Hassell – for guys with expiring contracts, but none of those 5 has what you might call an immovable contract.
For this reason, I believe they’d rather have PJ Brown. And for the same reason, I believe that may be why the Bulls traded Chandler for him. We’ll see.
Exhibit D
The Rashad McCants injury. The Wolves 2005 1st rd pick is out 4-6 months, perhaps longer, with the same type of knee injury as Amare. That’s not good. And that’s where JR Smith comes into play. Sending Smith to Minneapolis would provide the Wolves with a solid young 2-guard who’s purpose would be 2-fold: a) provide minutes in McCants’ absence and push him in his rehab, b) provide an insurance policy should this become a recurring Cub-like injury to McCants.
Exhibit E
The offer. Here goes:
SG JR Smith
SF Luol Deng
PF Tyrus Thomas
FC PJ Brown
2007 NY Knicks pick
Sounds like a shitload, and in fact it is, but that’s what it would take contractually to line up from a financial standpoint. The ’07 Knicks pick holds no monetary value at this point, but I do believe Minnesota would insist on the pick, so I’m throwing it into this hypothetical scenario.
Minnesota would have a bright young future. Their line-up would probably be as follows:
PG Randy Foye
SG McCants/Smith
SF Luol Deng
PF Tyrus Thomas
C 2007 lottery pick
As for the Bulls, they’d be more dangerous than Dan McNeil:
PG Kirk Hinrich
SG Ben Gordon
SF Andres Nocioni
PF Kevin Garnett
C Ben Wallace
The bench would be a little thin…
PG Chris Duhon
GF Thabo Sefolosha
F Viktor Khryapa
FC Michael Sweetney
FC Malik Allen
… and the long-term outlook not as secure, but might it still be worth it?
If the Bulls don’t make a major shake-up, I’d say their odds of winning a title in the next 5 years are above average to good. Despite the young assets they’d lose in pursuit of KG, I’d say the line-up of Hinrich, Gordon, Nocioni, Garnett, and Wallace would put their odds of winning a title in the next 3 years in the neighborhood of good to great.
Just something to chew on as we all sit and wait on Pax’s next move. Love to hear some feedback/debate, but try not to have a coronary in your responses please.
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