Please have a look at this before you argue that Jake Peavy is going to revert to being a somehow mediocre pitcher when he arrives at the Cell.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

If I didn't just fry my brain out on a boatload of work, I'd offer up some kind of smug bullshit here to imply that anyone making the aforementioned argument is a toothless goon who's likely never watched a full game of baseball in their lives. That's not where I'm taking this, for now, as all I want to do is go to sleep. Just have a look. Click through ranks by year. My theory here is that while I do place a lot of value on statistics, and fairly little on anecdotal evidence, Park Factor is one of those cases where both stats and stories are lying to you. I believe Barry Bonds (an expert, if there ever was one) when he says that Petco (formerly Qualcomm) was the toughest park within which to hit home runs, even with that odd indentation out by the right field foul pole. I do not, however, believe that Jake Peavy's THREE TRUE OUTCOMES (K, BB, HR) are going to fluctuate wildly out of control, rendering him grossly overpaid and painfully mediocre when he puts on a Sox uniform. Injuries will bite him sooner than the forest green fences will, and the impact of the injury he's currently struggling with will be nil. The Jake Peavy acquisition was a brilliant move by MR KW and anyone who says otherwise is a got-dang fool. Sorry, had to get that out of my system. But, seriously, guys. If you believe Park Factor (and if you believe Park Factor to the letter, then you have to believe that US Joan is a pitcher friendly park - not on par with Petco, but friendly nonetheless, this year) then look at it this way: Peavy's HR allowed may rise, but his other XBH will drop - significantly. Triples are apparently plentiful in SD, and only arrive by fool and error here in CHI; same with doubles. If you believe in Park Factor, then you'd have to agree with me that Peavy will allow fewer baserunners in Chicago than he did in San Diego, and baserunners are the currency of ballgames. Fewer baserunners, fewer runs, go crazy!

But, seriously, just look at Park Factor and tell me it's not bunk. I remember when Josh Beckett was traded from Florida to the Red Sox the story was the same - Greg Rybarczyk of HitTracker (great site, btw) claimed that Etadio Dauphin provided significant friendship and camaraderie to its pitchers in teal, and Fenway, with its odd angles and monster would compromise Beckett's ability to keep the ball off the ground and in the park. It was true for a year, then it normalized, and guess what? Park Factor now has Landshark Stadium (formerly Dolph Fin Arena) ranked as one of the parks most amenable to batsmen. Everything's upside down, cats and dogs, etc. etc.

So, yeah, fuck Park Factor, and fuck that humidor in Denver, too.

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Anyone who says Peavy won't pitch good away from Petco is:

a) Baseball retarded
b) A hater grasping at straws
c) Both (we have a lot of these around here)

Doesn't the pitcher Peavy is pitching against also have to pitch at the Cell?

I wouldn't doubt that the ERA is slightly higher but the pitchers they are going against have to deal with the same issues that raise the number of runs allowed.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

i think he'll be fine. but boilermaker rick, didn't you consistently poo-poo the cutler trade because of what people are saying? it's fair to criticize...

It's entirely possible he'll revert to being a mediocre pitcher no matter what stadium he moves too.

When you say revert, that indicates that he was mediore in the past. He has actually been very good to outstanding in the past....pitching in the NL, with 1/2 of his games at Petco. His road ERA being 3.84, is decidedly less than outstanding, yet better than mediocre. Lets just sit back and watch how he does against the AL, who employs the DH, pitching in a hitter friendly environment in 1/2 his games, rather than Petco. He does have 1 thing working in his favor, a lot of hitters he will face (once he is able to start) have never batted against him. I'll be interested to see.

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Go Cubs!!!!

You'll have to explain this to me. Because I wasn't over the top in love with one trade I'm forever not allowed to have an opinion on another trade?

I've never even said it's a good trade, just that a pitcher doesn't suddenly become bad because of a ball park. I never doubted Cutler's talent level. He's a top ten QB. Peavy is a top ten pitcher. The bad defense the Sox play will probably hurt Peavy's stats a little and the lack of receivers on the Bears will hurt Cutler.

If I responded to someone saying that the Sox gave up too much to get Peavy then you may have a point but these are two separate situations.

In fact, the same logic would apply. If Clayton Richard ends up being a great pitcher then the Sox may have given up too much. I don't think that will happen and I haven't seen many people who do.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

What if they question his health and health going forward?

Not a ground ball pitcher. That's the main issue... is that pop flys in Petco will be 20 rows deep at Cominskey.

So I take it that Mark Buerhle, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd are ground ball pitchers?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Buehrle is (45% career)
Danks is (46% this year)
Floyd is not

This thread further proves this true.

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It's not that he won't "pitch good" as much as it is just undetermined how much the injury and his release from Petco will affect his game.

To put this in perspective... in his career he has pitched ten more games at home than away. When you compare his home to his away stats, there are just so many discrepancies it's impossible to ignore. On the road... in 300 less ABs, he has given up 30 MORE HRs. Similarly, his road OPS is 120 points higher, his opponents BA is 26 points higher and of course the ERA is over a run higher.

The big stat is the HRs though. 30 more home runs in 200 less ABs? What's even more troubling is that he gave up 8 more doubles at home. Considering the discrepancy in HRs, one could easily see how those doubles could be HRs in a smaller park.


Again, not saying he will stuck... but it's impossible to completely ignore such DRASTIC statistics like these. And anyone who completely and blindly ignores these facts is actually a baseball ri-tard.

Peavy's health is questionable. Thats just a fact.

If the Cubs signed a DL'd pitcher and were acting like he was the savior, like thanking the GM and saying how awesome he is, The Cub hater Sox fans would be ALL OVER the injury thing, the park thing, and whatever else they could grasp.

Frank you specifically would make a comment about the "ridiculously back loaded contract"

The park thing wont matter. The health thing might. Peavy will be good for the Sox eventually...just not sure when.
This has nothing to do with jealousy.

Mark Buehrle has a 3.62 career ERA in the Cell and that's good for a 75-42 record. That's pretty good, right?? So Peavy's ERA will go up. So the fuck what?? The other guy has to pitch there too. If Peavy maintains his road ERA he will win a TON of games for the Sox because his new team will score more runs than his old team. It would be different if he was pitching in the Cell and the other guy was pitching in Petco but that's not the case. I'll take Peavy pitching for me against anyone, in any park at anytime.

I believe my exact phrase was "Again, not saying he will suck."

I'll say it a different way. As an impartial baseball fan (I actually hold no ill-will towards the White Sox, and follow them very closely)... I believe this trade will be one of the more interesting trades in recent Chicago Baseball history. There are a lot of storylines here: his injury & the fact he was traded while on the DL, the back loaded contract, his stats away from Petco... so it will be fun to watch how it turns out. There is a lot to take in and clearly we can't come to a conclusion on this deal until he makes a couple hundred pitches in a Sox uni.



Disclaimer: I would have liked the Cubs to get him, so I am not nagging on the White Sox. If the Cubs got him, I would have the same concerns.

You've gotta be fuckin' kidding me!! The two most over-the-top, biggest Cubs haters on the board sayin that shit!!



Well said, rpb...

How quickly Cub fans forget being in love with Jake Peavy after hearing of him singing along to 'Go Cubs Go' in Vegas, then saying "nah, he's damaged goods we don't want him anyway" after the inferior baseball GM in this town fucked up the trade.

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I'd love to have Peavey. When he's not injured, he's awesome. Except when he played at Wrigley in that game FavreFan and I went to last year. He got clobbered.
The only thing I'll caution Sox fans on this one is his injury history. Most Sox fans had a lot to say about Harden and Bradley's injury histories, and they've got themselves a guy who's just as injury prone.
If you get a good 30 starts from him next year you're gonna be a contender.

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"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

How quickly you prove my point about you having mindless hatred toward a team that has no direct impact on your own - you couldn't resist a shot at Hendry right there - good job - yeah, we know...yeah, we get it - he sucks, next story...

I'm not worried about Peavy's 'injury history'. He's on the DL now because of a fluke non-arm related injury. Before this fluke injury he's made at least 27 starts every full season he's been in the league.

'03- 32
'04- 27
'05- 30
'06- 32
'07- 34
'08- 27

I'm glad to see you picked out my shot at Hendry, and completely ignored the point of that post. How quickly you forget that Cub fans loved the idea of having Peavy...until they couldn't get him. Then, all of a sudden he became damaged goods and a mediocre starter.

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Not ALL Cubs fans were clamoring to get him, mah frehn - I, for one, wasn't sure about him being a "must have" for the Cub (even though you can never have enough pitching), as we clearly had other needs to address (correctly, that is, and I certainly won't debate the competence of said G.M. to spend money wisely at this point). It's appealing to the lowest common denominator to just sit there and take pot-shots at someone who is irrelevant in this matter. We weren't in a position to outbid the Sox, weren't a factor in this thing at all this year because we couldn't be - the Cubs have nothing to do with this, and hypocrisy rears its ugly head when you call out ANY Sox haters - hope your boy works out for ya, and now I'll just continue to suffer with my own team and just not really give a rat's ass about a team in another league that doesn't impact my own

What the hell is a facor?

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

this

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way