Attention gambling gurus.

Is there a statistical breakdown of how .5 affects a college or NFL game in either direction?

For instance, -3 vs. -3.5
-7 vs. -6.5

How much are you giving up or gaining by getting the .5 less or more on the standard scores?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I don't have it in front of me right now, but if memory serves, the difference between 3 and 3.5 is something like 35 cents (-110 to -145). 7 to 7.5 is something like 15 cents. 2.5 to 3 and 6.5 to 7 are also pretty important half points. The others are more insignificant, but still not valueless. I'll try to find the chart.

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Fire Phil Emery

I think the .5 in a betting line means that a team that's favored by 3.5 points needs to win by 4 for you to win money at the window. The point spreads in football, for instance, are set by the way the public tends to put the money and will go up and down depending on how much $$$$ is wagered on both sides. For instance, if the Packers are favored to beat the Bears September 13th by 3 points at the start of the week, and if there's a lot of $$$$ on the Bears, the spread will likely move towards Chicago. If there's more $$$$ on the Packers, the number will likely go higher towards Green Bay. One thing's for sure...That half point hook will get you every time.

Yeah, I know what he meant. But that half point doesn't always cost you the same amount. Move from 2 to 2.5, and it's not that big of a deal. 2.5 to 3 is much bigger, and 3 to 3.5 is bigger still.

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Fire Phil Emery

Thanks.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Don't be a stranger, Coast.

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

lol

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"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

Thanks Coast.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

You are welcome. The calculator is based on years of game results and it's necessary to use that to answer your question because the value of the .5 depends on which sport, which league and the spread of the game in question. The push rate on 3 in the NFL is now 9.79%. Thus, buying the half on or off of 3 in the NFL would pay off 9.79% of the time. However, buying that half on or off 3 in the NFL costs you 25%. The push rate on the 7 in the NFL is 5.7%, and the books charge 15 cents to buy that half. The push rates for every other point in the NFL are below 5%, so the books only charge you 10 cents juice to buy those hooks.

In college, the push rate on the 3 is 6.3% and 5.3% on 7. The books charge 15 cents for the 3, but just 10 cents on the 7 and every other number.

Is it ever a good idea to buy points?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Mathematically, no. If you are totally rational and always try to be +EV in sports investing, then no, never do it.

Intuitively...well I guess that's why they call it gambling and why most people lose at it.

If the book allows you to buy points, it is probably a good thing for them.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way