This weekly football wagering contest is open to all. You can join in any time and you don't have to make a pick every week. You can post your plays any time, but they must be posted before a game you are playing kicks off. You must make your picks in this thread and you must provide at least one reason for each pick. A prize valued at over $100 will be given to the person with the best record after the NFL regular season and college bowl games are concluded. You must have at least 50 picks by season's end to qualify for the prize.

Please use and post the prevailing lines at the time of your picks from one of the two largest offshore casinos: thegreek.com or pinnaclesports.com.

CONGRATS TO ROCKS AND BLOWS ON HIS 5-0 WEEK
Current Standings

Player.............................This Week......................Overall.......................%

Rocks and Blows...............5-0...............................8-1............................89
Hawkeye Vince.................0-0...............................5-2............................71
Matt Murton’s Beard..........3-1...............................7-5............................58
donspiracy.......................2-1-1............................6-5-1.........................55
Doug...............................1-1...............................3-3............................50
the gooch........................2-1...............................3-3............................50
Coast..............................4-6-1............................10-12-1.....................45
Bud Dude........................2-2...............................5-6............................45
Good dolphin....................0-0...............................2-3...........................40
sabu...............................1-1-1............................2-3-1.........................40
reents.............................2-3...............................5-8...........................38
BD..................................0-3...............................1-3...........................25
Chus...............................0-1...............................0-1............................0

FALCONS -3

NO offense has looked good against bad defenses and NO's D has given up points to bad offenses. NO will turn the ball over and the Falcons will be running all over and dominate ball control. Falcons have a great D and have only given up 9 points this year to 2 teams better then NO's opponents despite the same records.

Week 4 Two for the Road

Penn St. +16 at Ohio State (46)

Outmatched Nittany Lions will at least get a lot of kickoff returns.
2 TD's for Ginn, 2 TD's for Pittman. Easy over.
Penn St. 17 Luckeyes 31

Notre Dame -3 1/2 at Michigan St. (59)

Spartan QB Stanton can run and pass, but will be gobbled up by Weis.
60 points?? Irish kill the clock so Charlie football can make 11:00 feeding.
Drunken Catholics 30 Bambi Killers 24

_________________
CSFMB: Home of the small minded

NEVADA (-7)

Northwesterns offense has looked bad against some weak opponents and Nevada will compliment the run with an accurate pass attack. Nevada is 11-2 ATS last 14 home games

Like Mac says this will probably be a bad week, so let's see what happens.

Minnesota -2.5 over Purdue- Minnesota should be running the ball and with an expireinced Brian Cupito at quarterback, the Gophers will be scoring all day against the Boilermakers.

Arizona State +7.5 against California-Arizona State has an offense that can score at will and they should score enough to keep it close with the Golden Bears.

UCLA -3 over Washington- Washington is one of the worse teams in the Pac-10 and UCLA will prove when they kill the Huskies.

Titans +11 against the Dolphins- The Dolphins offense hasn't show anything, the Titans should lose by 10 or less here.

Giants +3.5 against the Seahawks- I think with the Giants winning last week, should help propel the season, and the Seahawks just couldn't put the foot on the throat against the Cardinals.

Rams and Cardinals over 44.5- Both teams will just be going up and down the field with the high-flying Cardinals offense against the reliable high scoring Rams Offense.

A Monday Night Special Saints +3.5 against the Falcons- The Saints are back home and they have the extra emotion and have their team running on all cylinders and the Saints defense is playing good to stop the Falcons running game.

Good luck to everybody.

My weekly 4 pack:

Penn St. +17
I know that ND rolled PSU, and OSU has been damn impressive and are going to roll to the BCS championship game. But still this is the big ten and that has to be respected. Troy Smith and Ginn will finish 1,2 in Heisman voting this year, and Gonzalez is going to have a monster season as well. I just don't season PSU losing by more than 14 points in this game, they'll give OSU a fight - but OSU is too much
OSU - 34
Penn St. - 21



Arizona St. +7 1/2
I am not sold on this Cal Bears team. Tennessee exposed this team and a sub par Minnesota team is not a good gauge as to what this team can do. ASU on the other hand has looked very impressive in its wins over Nevada and Colorado, Carpenter hasn't looked stellar yet but he'll turn it around in this road win.
ASU 24
Cal 21


Eagles -6
The 49ers are a damn scrappy team and they showed it against St. Louis last week. The Eagles are coming off a complete emotional let down by dropping 17 points in one quarter and eventually losing the Eli and the Giants and then losing Javon Kearse in OT. Some teams would come out emotionally flat after such a demoralizing weekend, I see the opposite here. I see the Eagles pulling together and refocusing on their goal. They have already been through so much shit last season, last week was nothing. I see McNabb, Stallworth and Philly's D coming up big in this game to get their season back on track.
Eagles 35
49ers 14

Falcons -3 1/2
The Falcons are the superior team here. The only reason I can fathom is as to why the line is set at 3 1/2 is because people are banking on the Saints 'emotional lift' from being at the Superdome again. 'Emotional lift' works for the frist 10 minutes of the first quarter, it doesn't win you football games and the Falcons are by far the superior team here.
Falcons 27
Saints 17

Notre Dame -3
Charlie whips the troops back into shape and give the Spartans a beatdown. Brady Quinn looks like a Heisman candidate again.

Bears -3.5
Have to keep picking this team until they don't deliver.

_________________
@audioidkid

Hawkeye Vince is coming back this week after taking a powder last week. Even with the monster 0-0 record last week, I moved up to second in the rankings. That and a buck and a quarter might get you a cup of coffee.

Pick 1: Connecticut +2 @ Indiana
Indiana's run defense has been awful - giving up 200+ to Southern Illinois last weekend in a disappointing loss for the Hoosiers. UConn is averaging 272 a game on the ground and their passing defense is among the best in the Big (L)east. Indiana's passing offense will suffer from James Hardy being suspended for this one.

Pick 2: Washington State - 10 @ Stanford
Stanford has one of the worst defenses in the country giving up 479 yards a game and 40 pts. WSU struggled through a game last week against Baylor that they would have lost in the past, but they might be turning the corner.

Pick 3: Texas -24.5 vs Iowa State

Iowa State just lost the bowl game of their season. They could generate no pressure against Iowa and you have to pressure a young QB like Colt McCoy. He should be able to find open receivers all day and this could get ugly.

I may add to this later - but these are my first 3.

Michigan -13 vs. Wisconsin
I went against Wisconsin last week and pushed with the 14 point dog San Diego State. What I saw from Wisconsin in that game was about what I expected...a decent, but not outstanding Big Ten defense and a pedestrian offense. As I watched the Wisky-SDSU game and the Michigan-Notre Dame game at the same time last week, it appeared to me that the Michigan team was MUCH faster than the Wisconsin team. In fact, compared to the other teams on my screens at the same time last week (Michigan, ND, Oklahoma, Oregon, Auburn, LSU) it appeared the Wisky line and running backs were running in quick sand. Wisconsin offenses will look like that at times because of their grind it out style. Against a faster and much more explosive Michigan offense, this Wisky offense will need to make some plays to hang around in this one. I didn’t see anything from Stocco at QB that would lead me to believe he was going to make very many. He didn’t make any passing plays of special note vs. SDSU. This Wisconsin offense has several new starters and this will be their first real test, and it’s against a top ten defense. I have a hard time seeing Wisconsin even getting to 10 points in this game. My main concern here is that the Wolverines might be flat after their big win at ND. But this is the first conference game for Michigan and no doubt the Michigan coaches have reminded their team that the Badgers beat them last year on a last-minute Stocco TD run. The fact that this Badgers defense appears to be a step or two slow might be really evident when Michigan hits them in the passing game. And if the Badgers choose to play some type of combination pass defense (cover two, nickels or dimes) then look for Hart to have a big day in the running game. By my power ratings, I make this line 18-1/2, so will take the value as I find it. I think Michigan dominates on the order of 31-10.

Oklahoma -28 vs. MTSU
I RARELY lay big wood. This might be the largest lay I make all season. But I think it’s justified here. OU is really REALLY steaming mad about the way they were robbed by Pac Ten refs last week. It’s a bit of concern that the Sooners were still talking about last week’s game on Tuesday, but in this case I think the robbery last week will make OU more intense this week. Middle Tennessee might be the best team in the Sun Belt, but the Sun Belt is often over-matched. MTSU may have covered against Maryland, but OU is an entirely different team. OU is a power running team that will likely steamroll MTSU. Too big, too strong, too fast and now they are flaming mad. I think this game will fit one of my handicapping angles...teams that score 40 points or more have been a 90% play ATS so far this season. I think OU gets over 40 here as Peterson runs wild against an over-matched MTSU defense. And MTSU will be hard-pressed to score once, let alone twice.

Jacksonville +7 @ Indianapolis
Whenever I can get the better rushing team and the better defense as a touchdown dog in the NFL, I take the points and don’t look back. The short work week after the big Monday night win is a bit of a concern for the Jags, but this team knows the Indy offense very well and Jax covered both times last year. While Joseph Addai started to show a little bit last week to boost the Indy rushing game, that game was vs. Houston. This one is against one of the top five or so defenses in the NFL. If Indy can’t establish the run, and I don’t think they can, Manning will be throwing all day and Jax will come at him with pressure from all angles. Jax has shown in previous games they can disrupt the timing of the Indy offense. And this year, we get a Jax offense that looks like it will be more productive this year than it has been last year....the 9 points vs. Pittsburgh on Monday night notwithstanding. Fred Taylor looks healthy and is running strong and Leftwich appears to be making better decisions and not throwing as many ill-advised passes. This Indy defense doesn’t look as look as a year ago, as they are not yet getting the pass rush from Mathis et al that they did last year. And the Indy D hardly looked impressive in week 1 as Tiki Barber ran for over 100 against them. Bottom line of this game is I think Jax outrushes Indy, wins the time of possession battle, controls the pace of the game and takes this one to the wire.

Green Bay – Detroit OVER 39
Green Bay is arguably the worst defense in the NFL, after being shredded by somewhat average Bears and New Orleans offenses for 60 points in two weeks. Lions QB Kitna has been respectable in throwing for 459 yards in two games vs. very good Seattle and Chicago defenses. What he hasn’t done yet is thrown a TD pass, but I expect that to change this Sunday against the Packers’ woeful secondary. I lean to Detroit to win and cover here, but I’m not sure which Lions defense we’ll get this week...the one that hung in there vs. Seattle or the one that gave up big plays vs. the Bears. Even on their best day, I can’t see the Lions shutting down both the running of Ahman Green and the passing of Brett Favre. Until the Lions defense shows some consistency in their pass rush and coverages, I really can’t back them as a favorite. However, I expect the Detroit offense to have a big day and I’m expecting 27-35 points from Detroit here. The GB offense got untracked last week vs. New Orleans and I expect a minimum of 14 from them here...enough to get this total over.

Chicago -3 vs. Minnesota
Last week, I went against Minnesota and lost in OT. Why did I lose? In part, because Carolina’s four missing starters were missed more than I thought they would be. The main reason though was the stupid blunder by Carolina’s punt returners in the 4th quarter, who threw the ball away and set Minny up at the 21 for a short TD drive. And it took a trick play to get the TD. Other than that stupid play and the subsequent trick play, Minny loses to Carolina 13-6. The first week Minny beat a bad Skins team that has zero offense and a D that is clearly down a few notches from last year. Minny has become much more of a balanced offense and will certainly try to establish the run against da Bears. Good luck with that. The Bears allowed Detroit just 46 yards on the ground last week and 29 of that was on one play. I’m still not sold on this Bears offense, and Minny will be the best defense the Bears will have faced yet. However, I’m not asking for much... just 17 points and maybe even 14 should be enough to get the cover here. The under is very appealing, but on the off chance that Grossman's roll continues another week and the Bears score in the high 20s again, I'll pass on the limbo.

Baltimore -6 1/2 @ Cleveland- Right now I think that the ravens are the best team in the NFL and the Browns are one of the worst. The Ravens are scoring points with the offense and defense. I can't see cleveland scoring more than two TD's and the Ravens could score more than 4TD's.

Atlanta -3 1/2 @ New Orleans- Atlanta has a new amazing rushing attack while the saints have been a good story, I just don't see them having the magic to even stay close to the falcons.

BC @ NC St. under 42 1/2- I should have had a win last week but then the game went into OT2 and I think BC should win a close low scoring game due to their great D and their rushing attack.

_________________
"Do work, son" -Big Black

CHICAGO (-3)

Minnesotas offense can move the ball but they wont score any TD's. The Bears O-Line is unreal and Minnesota will bring heavy heat which will open up the run and short dump off's Grossman has been effective with. Minnesota will have poor field posistion due to penalties and bad kick and punt returns.

BALTIMORE (-6.5)

Cleveland offense could barely get anything going against a bad New Oreleans defense. Baltimore has been scoring despite not moving the ball well and an awful Browns D is all beat up, with the Baltimore running attack having a big day.

DENVER VS. NEW ENGLAND (UNDER 39)

Denver has a solid D and have yet to give up a TD. Thier offense is brutal and turnovers and bad feild position have cost them. NE has yet to click on offense but they will be able to runn the ball, but wont score much. Off a division game, Denver has been under 11 of the last 12 times. And they have been under all 8 times off a win against a division rival.[/b]

well here we go

trying to get out of the 40 percent clip and get on the right side of life


Louisville -14 @ Kansas State-
Ill go with the banged up Cardinal, theyve shown no reason to go off them now, there is a fear of a letdown after the big win v the Canes, but this undefeated K State team looks like they should get run off of their home turf. Cantwell looks like he can run this Cardinal team, and I look for the road big chalk to deliver here.

Boise State -14 v Hawaii
Im gonna stay with the smurf turf boys again, even though they pushed out last week. Hawaii on the road, in the cold, in the high altitudes, Zabransky against Hawaii D. Hawaii run and shoot versus Boise's D, shouldnt be a problem. Hawaii stuck with Bama at Bama, but I look for them to get run out of the building here.

Bowling Green -7 v. Kent State-
Kent State pulled one out against Miami, Ohio. Bowling Green had problems against Wisconsin, Wisco is different from Kent State here. Kent States pourous D gives up an average of 346 yrds per game, Bg averages 424 yards per game (and 31 points). Bowling Green should cover the 7 here, kids. Kents O averages 10 points, and 319 yards per game to BGs giving up and average of about 300 yards per game.

Colorado +27 @ Georgia-
I dunno, for some reason I find this number to be too high. Do the players of the Buffalo have any pride left? Theyve shown nothing whatsoever, Georgia has 2 shutouts in a row and are playing hungry at home. Colorado looks too young, too scared, but for some stupid reason, I think that this number is too high. Maybe the fact that the Buffalos are bringing Ralphie down to Ga with them or something, but I look to the Buffs to not get embarassed here. Col has shown me absolutely no reason for me to feel this way, they've scored 10, 10 and 3 points in each game against far far lesser competition, theyve had some distractions with QB Cox having family issues and that has to weigh on this team. All indicators are of a Bulldog blowout, but I think GA eases up, the Buffs show some life and cover the big number. Call me nuts on this one.

Saturday CFB

Ohio St -17 over Penn St

Home team has covered last 8 in this series. This is not the same Penn St team that beat Ohio St last year. I think Ohio St has a huge talent edge in this game today. I see a 24+ pt Ohio St win today.

Notre Dame -2.5 over Mich St

Series visitor has covered last 5 in this series. I think this is great line value today. If ND wins last week or even just loses by a couple pts you are probably lookin at ND being favored today by at least 7. I think ND will bounce back today and keep the road team king in this series.

Arkansas -2-1/2 vs. Bama
Was going to wait and see if the line was going back toward the 1 pt. opener, but appears somebody has steamed it. Like it anyway. Arkansas might be a bit undervalued after the way USC embarrassed it. Looks like a good spot to go against the Shulas, who have shown me very little on either side of the ball. Fayetteville is a tough place for a young visiting QB to find his touch. Besides...a friend of mine who is arguably the worst sports gambler in history...loves Bama.

As a reminder to all, let's all please use the publicly available lines at pinnacle or greek when we post our plays. This way we're all using the same numbers. Please do not use the newspaper lines, the number you might get from vito on the street corner, a number from some other book, or a number you got by buying points. I have the lines histories from Pinnacle and Greek and according to those, neither place ever offered a -2.5 on Notre Dame. The closing number was 3, -25...which is halfway between 3 and 3-1/2.

2-1 for Saturday.

Pittsburgh -1-1/2 vs. Cincinnati
One thing that often happens in NFL wagering is that bettors remember most the previous game. And in the Stillers' previous game, they put up a donut against a tough Jax defense. So now they come home off that donut and are less than a FG favorites over Cincy? This line says the Bungles would be 1.5 pt. favorites on a neutral field. Really? I don't buy that. I also believe that Pitt has one of the largest home field advantages in the NFL. How often in a big game at home does Bill COwher not have his team totally focused and totally prepared? The Steelers didn't exactly play poorly vs. Jax...Jax just played better. The Bungles beat bad KC and Cleveland teams and they are now rated more highly than the Super Bowl Champ Stillers? I spent some time in Missouri. Show me.

Sunday Early NFL

Chicago -3.5 over Minnesota

Everyone is talking about the 2 teams the Bears have played but what about the 2 teams that the Vikes have played. Washington playing their first game with a complicated offense and with Clinton Portis limited. Missed FG kept the game from going to OT. Then they play Carolina without Steve Smith. Leading 13-6 late in the 4th Carolina has a brain cramp on special teams twice in a couple minute stretch and next thing you know Minny ties it up and wins it in OT. Bears speedy D will only be helped by playing in the dome today. Line has been up to 4 this morning but know back to 3.5. I like the Bears in this one today.

I had Notre Dame at 2.5 from SBG yesterday morning.

BAD WEATHER UNDER
Buffalo -Jets UNDER 33

Winds in the Buffalo stadium are swirling at 26 mph with gusts at 37 mph. Passing games will be dicey, if not dead. Buffalo defense has been outstanding and Jets have lived off the passing game. Can you say Jauron football? Even field goals will be an adventure.

49ers-Eagles OVER 41-1/2
49ers defense very susceptible to big plays and mucho passing yards. Eagles passing game should have big day. But Eagles also look like they have secondary issues with the way Eli picked them apart last week. Smith to Bryant combo should also have decent day. This is not the same Eagles defense of previous years. Both teams get to the 20s here.

is my -3 a loss then?

_________________
@audioidkid

Over 43.5 Stl/Az

Arizona was involved in a shootout in their first game on this field. Last week on the road the offense wasnt so good but now they are back home. I see both teams in the 20's in this one.

Denver +6-1/2 AT NE
I've been waiting for 7 on this game before officially posting it, and while there are 7s available at some books, I can't get 7 at the books we use for this contest. Nonetheless, I like Denver to take this one to the wire. NE will live off Brady's arm, with the occasional runs from Maroney and Dillon...while Denver will live off the run and their D. Better running game and defense getting a TD? You know where I'm at.

Doug...your -3 on ND is a push/tie. Your -3.5 on da Bears is a L. People who bought the Bears early in the week at -3 pushed. Those who bought them late, lost. Opposite for ND...those who bought them early in the week at -4 lost; those who bought them late, pushed.

Atlanta -4

Atlanta is the far superior team, and should be able to run at will on a poor defense.

over 44

Atlanta could score 30, combined with some garbage time scoring from the Saints should push this one over.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

2-2 this week in my write-ups in this thread. For tonite the total is the same at my online source as it is at the Greek so should be no issue with this one. ND was 2.5 from at least Thursday when I first checked the lines until about noon on Saturday at my online source.

Under 44 Atl/NO

All 6 primetime Sun/Mon games have stayed under their numbers so far and with the emotion that should accompany this game tonite I will say the under. Good luck whichever way you decide to go tonite

First...to clear up a question...BudDude your ND pick is a W. I checked and it was 2.5 at several places. No issues here. Now on to Monday night...

Saints +4
Yeah I've said the Saints are a good over team because I'm not sold on their defense and yeah the Falcons are running their own brand of a college rushing attack somewhat successfully. And yeah I'm certainly in the minority on this one as nearly 70% of bettors are on Atlanta. But this one isn't about the x's and o's of whether the Saints can stop Atlanta. They might not and both teams might get over 20 here. It's about the mojo and about the fact that I rarely if ever bet on the Falcons with Vick at QB. If New Orleans is to put it all on the line for one game this year, I believe this will be the game. And I also wonder whether we've really seen Reggie Bush yet. I look for 20 touches out of him tonight....maybe returning kicks, toting the pig, catching passes. I believe the Saints win outright, but I'll take the 4.

Sometime, when you get a chance, you will have to explain this stuff to me. I'm just a dumbass when it comes to technical handicapping. I don't understand how six other games involving 12 other teams, that happened to be played at night, have anything to do with this game. Why is this coincidence meaningful in determining the outcome of this game? What is the logic behind this angle?

I sure under-estimated New Orleans.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way