Team W L
Minnesota 82 80
White Sox 79 83
Detroit 79 83
Cleveland 77 85
Kansas City 66 96

Runs Scored 789
Runs Against 812

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

This team looks a lot better than 79 wins to me

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Team Cutler.

I would flip the WS and the Indians W/L

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"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

82 wins will not take this division.

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i disagree with this, the way i look at it their startin staff will get between 65-70 wins alone....though there are some big questions in the lineup

If the White Sox get 70 wins from their starters alone, they'll win over 100 games.

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You know me like that.

figure buerhle and peavy frou about 15 wins each, danks and floyd for 13-14 each and garcia for about 10...i think that is a little conservative too

That's 53 wins, not 65-70.

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

15
15
13
14
10
=
67


Ill go out on a limb and say they wont have 4 13 game winners

Exactly what i said, 67 wins.

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

The Yankees had 103 wins last year with about 63-64 wins from their starters.

I checked Seattle the year that they won 116 games and they had between 75-80 wins from their starters.

Angels had exactly 70 wins from their starters in '08 and won 100 games.

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You know me like that.

Year - Projected/Actual (Performance over Projected)
2004 - 79 wins/83 (+4)
2005 - 80 wins/99 (+19)
2006 - 82 wins/90 (+8)
2007 - 73 wins/73 (0)
2008 - 77 wins/89 (+12)
2009 - 73 wins/79 (+6)

So under Ozzie the Sox have averaged 8.16 wins more than BP predicts.

That sets the over under on 2010 White Sox wins at 87.16

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upper 80's in wins will win this division, their lineup scares me though. 2 guys they are countin on big time in quentin and rios seem to be head cases, both very talented but both headcases. if rios is just average sox win this division. average would have to be .270/20/70

As noted even by BP themselves, they are never correct in projecting the White Sox.

I think they are giving zero respect to the Twins. They have 2 MVP in their lineup. They probably have another 2 guys who will hit 30 HR. They have enough speed where they felt comfortable moving Gonzales. They have a lock down closer.

And the Indians will finish in last in the division

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

That Anderson- Podsednik- Ankeil outfield will lead the Royal's to 4th place!

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i don;t think the twins moving outside will hurt them that much, they have a short-porch in right too

Never say Never

Never.
The 2007 White Sox were 72-90

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Well if they cant get the number right AFTER the season...then i guess the do suck

This is pretty interesting. It also suggests Guillen is a fairly good manager..

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1926-1931-1934-1942-1944-1946-1964-1967-1982-2006-2011

Mully has his show for Monday.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1495

Regarding PECOTA


by Eric Seidman

Reading through the comments of yesterday’s announcement that the PECOTA projections have been released, it is evident that there is a lot of concern over several aspects of the data, ranging from the projected standings to individual quirks. We understand and appreciate that this reflects a lot of passion for what we do here at Baseball Prospectus. To be blunt: we messed up, and are working to fix the issues.

One issue involves the run environment: individual player projections do not match up with the run totals on the projected standings.

Another problem revolves around BABIP, as defense was being double-counted (double-counted).

These and other issues are being worked on and we hope to have an update provided by the end of the day, to unmess up. Please stay tuned for further updates.

Maybe we need a VORP on PECOTA

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1926-1931-1934-1942-1944-1946-1964-1967-1982-2006-2011

Is this an apology for their '09 or '10 predictions?

with a factor for error these genii are saying everyone has a chance at the division except the Royals.That's going out on a limb NOT

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Given that they've only been close once, maybe twice, in the past six years of Sox predictions, why does anyone even pay attention to these?

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They updated their predictions. I feel SO much better about the Sox chances now:

AL Central
Chicago White Sox 80 82
Detroit Tigers 80 82
Minnesota Twins 80 82
Cleveland Indians 77 85
Kansas City Royals 74 88

We're expected to believe that no team will have a winning record in the division?

If they didn't get to play each other, that would probably be true almost every year.

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Fire Phil Emery

Absolutely not. I just find it funny how serious some take these 'predictions'.