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Interesting article that discusses almost everything and everyone being debated in this thread.
The elusive ace: Only a handful of true aces in the majors
Updated 5/8/2009 3:51 PM |
It's said there are only 10 or so true aces in the majors, including the Blue Jays' Roy Halladay.
QUALITY STARTS
The major league leaders in quality starts (six or more innings pitched, three or fewer earned runs allowed) since the beginning of the 2005 season (through Sunday):
Player Quality starts
1. Johan Santana 101
2. Dan Haren 98
3. Roy Oswalt 96
4. Jake Peavy 93
T5. Brandon Webb 91
T5. Andy Pettitte 91
T7. CC Sabathia 86
T8. Bronson Arroyo 86
T8. Derek Lowe 86
T10. Carlos Zambrano 84
T10. Mark Buehrle 84
T12. John Lackey 81
T12. Jon Garland 81
T12. Roy Halladay 81
T15. Josh Beckett 77
T15. Barry Zito 77
17. Jamie Moyer 76
T18. Doug Davis 75
T18. Aaron Harang 75
T18. Javier Vazquez 75
21. Joe Blanton 74
Sources: Arizona Diamondbacks, STATS
WHO CAN BE CONSIDERED AN ACE - OR CLOSE TO IT
Bona fide
-- Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays: Everything about him, from demeanor to stats (five seasons with 16 or more wins, four of those with a 3.25 ERA or lower), screams "ace."
-- Johan Santana, New York Mets: Averaged 17 wins in five seasons as full-time starter; career-low 2.53 ERA in 2008 under New York pressure cooker; entered week end with 0.91 ERA.
-- Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks: This season's shoulder injury notwithstanding, averaged nearly 19 wins, 3.13 ERA over nearly 700 innings the past three seasons.
-- CC Sabathia, New York Yankees: Cy Young Award in 2007, 11-2, 1.65 ERA for Milwaukee Brewers in 2008 give him reprieve from sluggish start to '09, for now.
-- Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros: Has 162-game average in nine-year career of 17-9, 3.14 ERA, according to baseball-reference.com.
Borderline
-- Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres: Has led the National League in ERA and strikeouts twice each and wins once. Has one Cy Young Award.
-- Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs: Consistently good with no-hitter stuff, but has broken 16-win total once.
-- Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox: Postseason heroics (7-2, 2.90 ERA) show he's ace-worthy, but ERA the past four seasons (3.38, 5.01, 3.27, 6.75) paints an inconsistent picture .
-- John Lackey, Los Angeles Angels: Had an ace-like 2007 (19-9, 3.01 ERA), but injuries limited him to 24 starts in 2007, none this year.
-- Dan Haren, Diamondbacks: Thirty-one wins, 3.20 ERA over the last two seasons and a 1.84 ERA this year.
Let's see you do it again
-- Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies: He's 29-15 the past two years, and the NL Championship Series and World Series MVP trophies say it all about his postseason. But he has been prone to minor injuries and has one 200-inning season to his credit.
-- Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants: One more season approaching his 2008 Cy Young campaign will vault him to ace status.
-- Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers: 17-9, 18-6 ... 11-17? This year will be telling.
Numeric aces
-- Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox: Repertoire doesn't scream "ace," but eight consecutive 200-inning seasons and a 126-87 record suggest he might be.
-- Derek Lowe, Atlanta Braves: Sinkerballer has won 58 games, chewed up 891 innings since leaving Boston in 2004.
Future ace?
-- Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners: Has 14-win season, was 4-1, 3.38 this year and just turned 23. Future might be now.
-- Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals: Fast start this year shows Royals were wise to bet four years and $38 million on him.
Physical aces, but too physically iffy
-- Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals: Went 51-18 from 2004-2006 and won the 2005 NL Cy Young Award. Has made six starts since.
-- A.J. Burnett, Yankees: Has averaged at least eight strikeouts per nine innings in six of last seven seasons. But he's averaged 23 starts per year in that span.
By Gabe Lacques and Stephen Borelli
By Seth Livingstone, USA TODAY
While teammates play cards, read magazines or enjoy a little music, the Toronto Blue Jays' Roy Halladay is busy doing his homework during a rainy pre-game in Kansas City.
An ace's homework.
For nearly two hours Halladay is immersed in video of his opponents, not only watching but jotting down his observations in a meaty notebook as he prepares for his next start.
"It's a constant grind to make sure you're ahead of everybody else and more prepared," says Halladay, who doesn't normally spend much time at his locker.
ROTATION: Sutton puts his spin on the rotation
When he isn't studying opponents between starts, he's generally working out.
"That's why he's one of the top three to five pitchers in the world right now," says Blue Jays pitching coach Brad Arnsberg. "He's just at a different level. He has a different gear.
"He puts in as much time as you or I or three others put in every day. He's an incredible worker. Other guys have tried to get on his (workout) program and they can't do half of it."
The proof is in the numbers. Halladay has led the American League in innings pitched three times and has won 12 or more games six of the last seven seasons. Including his 6-1 mark through Thursday to start 2009, he's 70-28 the last five years.
That level of consistency combined with winning results puts the label "ace" squarely on Halladay's forehead. Few major league pitchers can unequivocally claim such a designation. Washington Nationals television analyst Rob Dibble maintains there are fewer than 10 true aces in the majors.
"With Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, it's how they mentally approach the game," Dibble says. "It's being constant in your conviction that, 'You can't touch my stuff, no matter what it is' — whether it's Santana's changeup or Halladay's cutter."
Halladay might not have the automatic intimidation factor of Randy Johnson, who could deliver a 100-mph fastball with the trajectory only a 6-10 human can provide. But Blue Jays catcher Rod Barajas says Halladay certainly has focus.
"When he gets on the mound, he's as intense as anybody I've ever caught," he says. "When he gives up a run you can see the anger and frustration."
Barajas caught Johnson and Curt Schilling in their primes. The common denominator?
"Ability is the first thing," Barajas says. "You've got to be able to do it physically. But after that, it's preparation. It's getting ready for a game, scouting and in the work ethic.
"These (three) guys, every day they don't pitch they're working on things, whether it's in their bullpen sessions, in the weight room, looking over video. These guys prepared more than anybody I've ever seen."
***
In the opposing clubhouse, Kansas City Royals pitching coach Bob McClure admires Halladay, whose nine complete games more than doubled the total of any other starter in the AL last year.
"An ace demands more from himself — like a Roy Halladay," McClure says. "(An ace) expects to start and finish every game he pitches and looks like he's going to do that. That kind of mentality differentiates who's an ace and who's not.
"It doesn't always have to be the guy with the best stuff, it's how they think."
What else constitutes an ace?
St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan have helped groom their share of elite pitchers with the Chicago White Sox, Oakland A's and Cardinals, including Cy Young Award winners La Marr Hoyt, Bob Welch, Dennis Eckersley and Chris Carpenter.
"An ace is willing to accept the responsibility of being the leader of the rotation," La Russa says. "He wants opening day, the first game of the playoffs, the biggest and toughest matchups. He looks forward to those games.
"It takes a lot of responsibility to be an ace. For some guys, it's more than they want. They might have the ability, but they don't necessarily want what goes with the title."
La Russa says Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright could soon join that list.
He says Welch, who went 27-6 for La Russa in 1990, had the stuff and mental toughness but was "too emotional" to be a true ace.
Aces, says Duncan, "distinguish themselves by being the guys who can dominate any game they start. They don't just win it. They can dominate. … teammates know they have a good chance of winning and the opponent feels like they might not have a chance.
"You certainly can't do it without the physical abilities. But there are a lot of guys who have the physical abilities who can't do it because they don't have the mental strength you need to be an ace.
"They might do it for a year or two, but not for a long time."
Dibble, who pitched for seven major league seasons, agrees that talented pitchers must have the right psychological makeup to lead a pitching staff.
"I played with guys who I truly believe were aces," Dibble says. "Tom Browning didn't have overpowering stuff where he could just throw 95 (mph) by you. Maybe he topped out at 85, but between his preparation and the way he aggressively attacked hitters, nobody wanted any part of him. I used to marvel at his pinpoint command and his attitude."
***
Does a team need an ace to be successful?
"To be a big team I think you've got to have a No. 1," says Philadelphia Phillies manager Charlie Manuel, "and what a No. 1 does is like (our guy) did last year down the stretch."
Manuel refers to his 25-year-old lefty, Cole Hamels, who was 15-5 in 2007 and 14-10 in 2008. Hamels pitched his best when the Phillies needed it most. After winning five of his final seven decisions last season, he went 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five postseason starts and was named NLCS and World Series MVP.
"What Hamels did for us, you could definitely call him an ace," Manuel says. "It's like when you handed a ball to Pedro Martinez in his heyday or a Roger Clemens or a Randy Johnson.
"Every five days, when you hand the ball to the guy, you feel like you're going to win that night."
But Hamels might not truly fit the criteria. At least not yet.
"An ace isn't just a No.1 starter," Phillies closer Brad Lidge says. "An ace is a No. 1 starter who's done it for a while."
As much as teammates Jamie Moyer and Lidge appreciate what he brings to their staff, they're not quite ready to put Hamels in the Halladay/Santana category.
"Cole has sort of done it backwards," says Moyer, who had won 249 games over 23 big-league seasons entering the weekend. "He's done the postseason stuff unbelievably well, but he's still learning his craft and what it takes during the course of a season.
"I think he'll grow into that."
Hamels has had difficulty maintaining his postseason performance this season, in part because of injuries.
There were concerns in spring training about his elbow. Then, in his first starts this season he was struck on his pitching shoulder by a line drive and twisted an ankle.
Hamels says it's tough enough duplicating success without the injury factor.
"You do well and you create a level of expectation," Hamels says. "But every season is different. The (offseason) layoff makes it difficult when you're trying to start back up. You're not going to be at the level that you finished a season at when you had 200-plus innings of practice to really get things down.
"The muscle memory disappears and you have to re-establish who you are again. If you've already set the bar up here," he says raising his hand, "it's hard."
Duncan needs to see more from Hamels to consider him among the aces in the game.
"You have to do it virtually every time for a long time," Duncan says. "Then, you are an ace. There aren't that many around that can do that."
***
Few managers have had the luxury of multiple aces the way Bobby Cox did with Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz in their primes for the Atlanta Braves.
"I guess an ace is the guy that carries the load, wins the big one, is capable of winning 20," Cox says. "There are not many of them around."
Every team has a pitcher it designates as its No. 1 starter, but few have one who can truly be called "ace."
The New York Mets have one in Santana, who was 4-1 with a 0.91 ERA in his first six starts this season. In his previous six seasons, Santana has gone 98-42. He's won league ERA titles in three of the last five years and struck out more than 200 batters each of the last five seasons.
Yet Santana, like Halladay, is reluctant to wear the label of ace.
"You're the one who is supposed to lead the way for the whole rotation. It's an important job. … (But) I don't want anybody on this team to look at me differently," Santana says. "I'm just another guy in this locker room trying to be a friend and share everything that I know.
"You're not going to win if you just have (just one) ace. It takes a whole staff to win. To me, it's about having confidence, making sure that everybody else around you feels comfortable and go from there."
With Tim Hudson sidelined to start 2009, Derek Lowe, who has won at least 12 games each of the last seven seasons, is Atlanta's No. 1 starter this year.
Does Lowe consider himself an ace?
"Hell, no," he says emphatically. "True aces are in the Hall of Fame.
"Of the guys I've pitched with, Pedro (Martinez) was the ultimate ace because of the electricity he'd bring to the ballpark and the feeling (of invincibility) he brought to our team. We knew when he pitched we were going to win.
"There are a few guys today. Halladay, Johan Santana. The list is short.
"Health is one reason. Two is the ability to have dominating stuff year after year. A lot of guys have 'ace' stuff for short periods of time."
Hitters see that ace stuff even when they're ahead in the count.
"If it's 2-0, 3-1, you're still not going to see a four-seam fastball right down the middle," Barajas says. "They're able to either change it up or cut it or throw a curveball. They're unpredictable. I can call any pitch in any count and know that the hitter is not comfortable."
Some of today's young pitchers — namely the Royals' Zack Greinke, off to a 6-0 start with a 0.40 ERA through Friday— might soon be aces. But it's one thing to have ace material. It's another to be a pitcher teams will bet the house on.
"Those guys don't shake," Barajas says. "They know that regardless of the pitch I call, if they put it in the right location, the result is going to be positive for them. Ninety percent of the time they hit their spots and the results are always going to be in their favor
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Holy shit there was a fucking thread about the playoff rotation BEFORE the season started! 
