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Michigan -15 vs. Michigan State
The annual “bet against Michigan State” party has begun. It actually began last week after the horrible loss to Notre Dame, but I could not bring myself to bet a Ron Zook-coached team with found money, let alone my own. Now, after MSU lost to 26 point dog Illinois, at home, this team is an emotional wreck. We’ve seen this pattern before. MSU loses a game it should have won and the kids simply can’t overcome the emotional burden. Many teams have a one or two week period in which their play declines from what some call the “bubble burst theory”. In Michigan State’s case, they are hearing and reading daily about how their coaches should be fired and how they are chokers. How do 19 and 20 year old kids get their heads together in a situation like that....especially when their coaching staff looks clueless about motivating them. And it won’t help matters any that MSU QB Stanton, their best RB Ringer and their LG Zinn (3-year starter) were all injured last week. With Stanton and Ringer not at 100%, the MSU task becomes even more difficult. Oh yeah...by the way, this week the emotional wreck that is MSU has to visit their biggest rival, Michigan, which happens to be a pretty outstanding team on both sides of the ball. Fundamentally, MSU has serious defensive issues, particularly in the secondary. Michigan has just the playmakers at QB and WR to capitalize. Against a demoralized (and not very good) Michigan State defense, UM might just go for 40 or more here. The Michigan defense is one of top units in the country and MSU won’t cover this nut unless they score at least in the 20s, if not the 30s. Hard to see that happening against this Michigan defense. The fundamentals and situation both point to a Big Blue Blowout.
Maryland +14 vs. Georgia Tech
I had GT last week in its outright upset win over Virginia Tech. It was a good spot to go against what I thought was an overvalued VT team. Now I think this is a good spot to go against a GT team that has a history of flat performances after nice wins. During Coach Chan Gailey’s 4+ years, the Wreck are just 4-10 ATS in ACC conference games following straight up conference wins. Last year, GT upset Auburn and Miami on the road, then failed to cover each the following weeks. The year before, GT upset Clemson, Maryland and NC State on the road, and failed to cover in two of the three games following those upsets. This is also a big emotional game for Maryland, as Terps Coach Friedgen used to be the offensive coordinator for GT. The Terps look like a team that might just play to the level of their competition. They have looked uninmpressive against mediocre opponents like Middle Tenn. State and Florida International. They were 17 pt. dogs to West Virginia on the road. Early turnovers and big plays did them in and they got down big early. Five turnovers prevented them from coming back and making a game of it. However, the score was more lopsided than the game actually was. The total offense in that game was 383-323, far closer than the 21 pt. final margin of the game. The Terps have an extra week to prepare for this one and this looks like a good situational spot to catch GT still basking in the afterglow of their big upset win last week.
Oklahoma +4 vs. Texas
Three reasons for this play: 1) How good is Texas? Do we really know? Texas has played one meaningful, competitive game this year against a Top 20 team. It was blown out by Ohio State at home. UT has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, but I have questions about how good that talent really is after the way Ohio State rolled through the UT defense and stifled the UT offense. 2) Oklahoma has the best running back in the nation in Adrian Peterson. I love backing underdogs with the better running game. Texas has a nice running game too, but I expect Peterson to carry the ball 30+ times in this one for 150+ yards. That will be sufficient to control time of possession and keep the Texas defense on the field. 3) Coaching. In a big game, I’ll take Bob Stoops over Mac Brown. With the exception of last year, Stoops has owned Brown in this matchup. Last year was an exception and other factors masked the significant coaching advantage for OU. Last year, Texas was a veteran team and OU was a young team. And Texas had a very special player in Vince Young. No Vince for UT this year and the teams are comparable in experience on both sides of the ball. Now, to be fair, Texas does have the better defense. The OU defense has been a bit shoddy tackling in a few games. But is this advantage for Texas enough to overcome the advantages that OU has? I don’t think so.
California -5 vs. Oregon
Ducks offensive coordinator Gary Crowton brings his family of 40 along with him to the Bay Area for this one, along with his usual tricked-up offense. The problem is, the Ducks will face the best defense they’ve seen all year. Both offenses have QBs who have thrown for over 65% completions and both have very good RBs. The difference is the Cal defense. The Bears D gave up a few long pass plays in the Tennessee game, but both were on plays where a freshman cornerback was left on an island in man coverage. Cal has done a better job lately of providing safety help to their corners. They did a very good job of holding down a decent ASU offense. Oregon will be a good test for them, but I think Oregon has more questions on D than does Cal. Having the better defense and home field advantage in a revenge situation are more than enough to justify a small lay like this.
New Mexico State-Idaho OVER 59
I’m going back to the well with the New Mexico State Aggies for an over. NMS may be the nation’s best over team, at least when they’re not playing a top defensive team. As was the case last week, I think this total ought to be in the mid to high 60s. So I’ll take the value. NMS leads the nation in passing offense and total offense. The NMS defense, on the other hand, is one of the nation’s worst, finishing 118 out of 119 teams in total D last year. Last week, I took the Aggies-UTEP game over and was not disappointed, as the teams combined for over 1100 yards of offense and 72 points. NMS threw for over 500 yds. last week and gave up over 500 yards to UTEP. Idaho may not be quite as prolific offensively as UTEP, and runs the ball more than UTEP, but the Vandals are coming off a game in which they scored 41 points against another bad defense in Utah State. Going against New Mexico State’s horrid defense, I expect the Vandals to find little resistance. First one to 35 wins.
Redskins/Giants over 45
These teams are 2nd and 3rd in the NFL in total offense. It looks like the Skins required a few extra weeks to start running the new Al Saunders offense efficiently. The first two weeks, they were pretty lame vs. Minny and Dallas, but have awakened the last two weeks. Putting 30 on the board vs. Jax shows this Skins offense, with Portis now healthy, can move the ball and score points with big plays. The Giants also have shown their offensive versatility and big play capability, with big plays and 20+ points against Indy, Philly and Seattle. Both teams however, have shown their defenses can be shredded and can give up big plays. They are 15th and 27th in total defense. Jax shredded the Skins with a few consistent drives and a few big plays. The Giants have given up more than 20 points every game. Both offenses should have a pretty nice day here with the defenses in retreat trying to stop two of the best running backs in the game (Portis and Barber) and trying to stop two passing games with playmakers (Toomer, Burress, Moss) that look like they might have big years.
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