Prohibitive favorite is out. Wide open race!

Looking at Lucky's last race showed this horse can go the 1.25 miles. He pulled up twice due to heavy traffic. He may be the new favorite, I didn't check.

Time for my annual horse racing bet. I'll have to ask my guy Mike Antonitus (sp?) what he thinks. Got no clue when it comes to horse race handicapping.

_________________
-"God is great. Beer is good. And People are crazy!"

He'll be the post time favorite, most likely.

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Fire Phil Emery

Lot of speed in this baby, so I'm looking at a closer.So it's Ice Box a little Puplit a little Spend a Buck. Should clos like a frieght train wooo wooooo wooo! Of course Pletcher was a herd runnin and Calvin is tuff at the Twin Spires won 5 opening day.Luckin at Lucky did have trouble but I hate Baffert

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Antoniades better stick to them buggies! This is big boy racing we're talking about.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I absolutely hate the fact that most horses now are bred for speed. No classic distance horses left.

I don't think that the problem is that they are bred for speed necessarily, but that they are breed for precociousness. The goal, more and more, is to have them at peak performance for only the end of their two year old and beginning of their three year old years. There's some overlap there between precociousness and brilliance (in the speed sense), but I think if breeders could develop a consistent strain of precocious runners that could handle 10 furlongs, they would do it. The reason for the move towards precociousness is the Kentucky Derby, after all.

It will be interesting to see if, with breeding prices still falling and purses remaining relatively stable, that trend reverses itself somewhat. It would also help if the Kentucky Derby did away with the graded earnings parameter for entry, as this tends towards larger purses for young horses, making 4 year old campaigns less valuable.

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Fire Phil Emery

There's a little more to it than that. When an owner is shelling out hundreds of thousands of dollars for a yearling and then investing all kinds of money into training it, he wants to recoup that cash as quickly as possible.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Right, but that's contingent upon 1.) yearling or weanling prices being high, and 2.) there being more opportunities to recoup that money on the Derby trail and in the breeding shed than in their late 3yo and older campaigns. If the way to horse racing riches to run through the 3yo and into the 4yo years, then that will change. You're right as it stands now, I'm just saying that if purses got progressively higher for older horses, thay dynamic would change.

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Fire Phil Emery

How does running a race a mile an 1-1/8 show he can go a mile and a quarter,plus heavy traffic there will be 19 other horse that can give him trouble and he is not running on poly. Take that

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I'm going down to the Derby this year, haven't gone in ten years. Right now, there is a 60% chance of T-storms on Sat. That could change things, it's always a tough race to predict. It always come down to who gets the perfect trip. We'll see today who gets the good post positions. I'll probably tie a couple closers, a favorite, and a mudder into an exacta, depending on the weather. No matter what, the Derby experience is always fun. Right now leaning toward Lookin at Lucky, Paddie O'Prado, and Dublin. It's such a crapshoot.

I hate the many surfaces horses run on today. You got the cushion out west, poly in the midwest, direct everywhere else. Hard to determine how form translates from one surface to another.

Jesus Christ, the favorite drew the 1 post, and the second choice drew the 20 post.

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Fire Phil Emery

Polytrack is an abomination. If God had meant horses to run on rubber, that big race on the first Saturday in May would be the Akron Derby.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

If God had meant for horses to run with harnesses, he would have strapped wheels to their asses.

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Fire Phil Emery

That's going to hurt Lookin at Lucky since they will want to rate that horse. Better get Calvin Bo-rail to ride him.

And list'nin to some big out-a-town Jasper
Hearin' him tell about horse-race gamblin'.
Not a wholesome trottin' race, no!
But a race where they set down right on the horse!
Like to see some stuck-up jockey'boy
Sittin' on Dan Patch? Make your blood boil?
Well, I should say.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Post positions

1. Lookin at Lucky (7/2 odds)
2. Ice Box (11/1)
3. Noble’s Promise (12/1)
4. Super Saver (12/1)
5. Line of David (28/1)
6. Stately Victor (30/1)
7. American Lion (14/1)
8. Dean’s Kitten (35/1)
9. Make Music For Me (50/1)
10. Paddy O’Prado (15/1)
11. Devil May Care (20/1)
12. Conveyance (18/1)
13. Jackson Bend (20/1)
14. Mission Impazible (18/1)
15. Discreetly Mine (30/1)
16. Awesome Act (12/1)
17. Dublin (12/1)
18. Backtalk (60/1)
19. Homeboykris (35/1)
20. Sidney’s Candy (6/1)

Oh the gr8 Joe Orr who's dosage makes them the pick, and who is this years wise guy pick?

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I would not bet on a horse from the 1 hole in the KY derby under any circumstance.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

Too true, too true.

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-"God is great. Beer is good. And People are crazy!"

On Dosage alone, Lookin at Lucky is the obvious play. He's a dual qualifier. But Super Saver is also a dual qualifier and he might be considered a "wise guy horse".

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

The only way this works is either a deep deep closer or a speedball. Even then, it's tough to see it.

I tend to think that dosage is a pseudo-science and that any correlation it may have with Derby success is purely coincidental.

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Fire Phil Emery

Could be. It reminds me of PECOTA, where we change the formula when we don't like the results. I remember Go For Gin didn't meet Dosage requirements going in but they changed the Chef De Race numbers in his line so he fit after the fact. Kind of an Ex Post Dosage law.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Thank You Super Saver! I told ya Eddie!