This weekly football wagering contest is open to all. You can join in any time and you don't have to make a pick every week. You can post your plays any time, but they must be posted before a game you are playing kicks off. You must make your picks in this thread and you must provide at least one reason for each pick. A prize valued at over $100 will be given to the person with the best record after the NFL regular season and college bowl games are concluded. You must have at least 50 picks by season's end to qualify for the prize.

Please use and post the prevailing lines at the time of your picks from one of the two largest offshore casinos: thegreek.com or pinnaclesports.com.

The board went 54-35-3 last week, marking the second straight week the board went 61%. For the year, the board is now 249-211-16 (54.1%).

................................Last Week......................Season........................... %
Hawkeye Vince............. 5-2.............................. 24-10.......................... 71
Not in the Biz.............. 2-2.............................. 7-3.............................. 70
Rocks and Blows........ 2-1-1........................... 18-9-2......................... 67
sabu.............................5-1.............................. 14-7-1......................... 67
Chus............................ 9-3-1........................... 27-17-3....................... 60
Doug........................... 0-0.............................. 6-4-2........................... 60
Good dolphin.............. 5-4.............................. 13-10.......................... 57
donspiracy.................. 9-9.............................. 30-25-1....................... 55
Bud Dude.................... 5-3.............................. 20-18-1....................... 53
Coast.......................... 4-5.............................. 36-33-3....................... 52
Matt Murton’s Beard.... 2-0.............................. 16-17-1...................... 48
the gooch.................... 0-0.............................. 10-12.......................... 45
reents.......................... 6-5-1........................... 22-30-2....................... 42
BD............................... 0-0.............................. 2-3.............................. 40
Mitch Cumstein........... 0-0...............................6-10............................ 37
Woodridge Ryan......... 0-0............................... 1-2............................... 33

Wisconsin -21
I am gonna keep riding on the Badger train. Wisco has covered four straight and is 6-0-1 ATS this year.

Atlanta +4.5
Cincinnati is banged up, especially on the O-line and are still very inconsistent. Atlanta has demonstrated the ability to stop the run, and should keep this one close, if not win outright.

Arizona vs. Green Bay over 44.5
Both offenses are better than the defenses. Favre can still shred mediocre defneses, and Leinart should have a better game against one of the worst pass defenses.

Wake Forest -9 and under 42.5
The Tar Heels are terrible on both sides of the ball, have a lame duck coach, and are 0-6 ATS. Wake should dominate this game. The under is 5-1 in Wake Forest games.

UTEP vs. Tulsa over 54
The last three meetings between these teams have totalled more than 70 points each time.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Northern Illinois +17 @ Iowa
I’d get this one early because I expect that when Iowa QB Drew Tate’s injury and surgery on his thumb becomes well-known, bettors might move to support the Huskies here. In the one previous game in which Tate sat out, the Iowa offense stalled as backup QB Manson showed very spotty play. The Iowa rush defense is decent but not great, so I expect Garrett Wolfe to have a decent day toting the pig for NIU. NIU QB Horvath is capable of making plays in the passing game and the Iowa secondary looks like its weakest link. Iowa has a strong running game and decent passing game, but the passing game will be a few notches down with Tate out. The Hawks could put 20-30 up on a good, but not great, Mac defense with shortcomings in pass defense. But I don't see Manson throwing the ball up and down the field on them. But nothing about this matchup leads me to think Iowa will dominate any aspect of this game. The situational edge is huge for Northern. This is a HUGE game for Northern as this top tier Mac school gets another chance to prove its mettle against a top tier Big Ten school. It’s also a chance for Garrett Wolfe to make a name for himself against a respectable BCS defense. After a couple of consecutive losses and 3 losses in the last 4 weeks, the Hawkeyes’ once promising season now is headed toward mediocrity. Thus, it’s hard to see the Hawkeyes being at an emotional peak for this one.

Try to do a little better this week.

Let's start off the week early.

Clemson -4 vs Virginia Tech- Clemson is now playing like the best team in the conference and will prove here agianst Va. Tech, with not much offense and Clemson's D will shut them down all night.

Notre Dame -13 vs Navy- Before the injury to Navy's quarterback, I would give Navy a chance, without him Notre Dame should roll. After the scare last week, the Irish will want to show people out there that the team is still dominant.

Purdue +3 vs Penn State- Purdue should do better this week, with Wisconsin's offense better than Penn State. If Purdue can get the same defensive game last week, Purdue should score more than 3 points and keep this game close.

Ohio State -27 vs Minnesota- Ohio State just looks that good and should be your national champs, Minnesota could barely beat North Dakota State and the Buckeyes should run and hide in this game.

Tennesee -4.5 vs SOuth Carolina- Tennesee looks good and they stumbled against a good 'Bama team last week, should rebound against a Gamecock team that beats teams they should and loses to teams there supposed to.

Miami +5 Georgia Tech- Miami got reinvigorated after the fight, get's their players back and now want to get to the ACC Championship game and will show against Georgia Tech, who no showed against Clemson last week.

Missouiri -1.5 vs Oklahoma- Missouri plays well at home and Oklahoma without Peterson, Missouri should roll in this game without any problems.

Georgia +13.5 vs FLorida- This is more of a pick from the heart as I am a Georgia fan, but I think the defense can play well and the Dogs get the running game going and with Florida coming off a loss, the Dogs can keep it close.

Texans +3 vs Titans- The Texans are coming off a big win and like to play for the coach and if they want to salvage the season need a win here. Carr will need to show people are right that say he's a good quarterback with a good game on the road.

Buccanneers +9.5 vs Giants- The Buccanneers are playing well right now with 2 straight last minute wins, The Giants are coming off a big Monday night win and sounds like 2 big defensive players will be out, 1 for sure.

Chiefs -6 vs Seahawks- Damon Huard is starting to come around and the Seahawks without Hassleback and Alexander, this has blowout written all over it.

Rams +9 vs Chargers- I like the way the Rams are playing so far and the Chargers coming off a loss and with all the Merriman stuff coming, the Rams should keep it close.

Jets+1 vs Browns- The Jets are playing decent, the Browns are still trying to figure things out and if the Jets win, they have a shot at the playoffs.

Panthers -5.5 vs Cowboys- The Panthers should bounce back this week and it doesn't matter who the Cowboys start this week. A fantasy note look for 2 touchdowns from Steve Smith as the Panthers roll.

Vikings +1 vs Patriots- The Vikigns are tough to beat at home, and Brady's first game in Minnesota and the Vikes D should contain the running game enough to win another close game.

I need to comeback, so that's the reason for all the games.

Clemson -4' @ Va Tech- get on this now, I see it as -6 come kickoff time. Clemson in a walk. I dont see, even at home how the Hokie will hang in there. They looked tepid against GT and one also has to consider how Clemson has to walk out to take the conference and get into the BCS. BC, Wake and Maryland all have one conference loss and BC can tie for the conference (if they get by maryland and miami). Clemson should walk em by 10. They are firing on all cylenders and should take hokies out. Hokies, like all hokie teams, are undisiplined and seem to be waiting for the opposition to roll over and give it to them. On Thursday night, it will be given to them, right up the old S#$t pipe.

Rutgers -18-1/2 vs. Connecticut
I may be a little late jumping on the Rutgers bandwagon (played them last week for the first time all season), but I think there is still value in RU. By my numbers, this line has the most line value of the week. I'm buying it now because I believe it will be closer to 21 by game time. Rutgers is the best defense in the Big East and this week is ranked 2nd in the nation in total defense. This team stops the run and defends the pass very well (shut down Pitt's high powered passing game last week). UConn has struggled to score all season and against board opponents, has scored as many as 20 points only once....and they haven't played a defense even remotely close to Rutgers yet. UConn has been struggling because they've been getting very inconsistent play from their two QBs. (UConn's two QBs are at, and below, 50% completions). It's tough to see Conn getting even as many as ten points against this Rutgers defense.
When Rutgers has the ball, they will rely on the leading rusher in the Big East, Ray Rice, to lead the nation's 8th best rushing attack against UConn's poor rush defense, currently ranked 10th worst in the nation. This is the kind of mismatch that enables teams to pile up yardage and control time of possession (Rutgers leads the Big East in time of possession).
My one concern about this play is that Rutgers might be a little flat, coming off a big win over Pitt with a huge game vs. Louisville on deck. But we benefit here from the fact that this game is on national TV on Sunday night. It will be a national showcase for Rutgers and thus, I think the momentum and excitement will negate any flat spot possibilities. I'll take the strong matchup edge on both sides of the ball plus line value and lay the wood.

I'm of the opinion that rushing teams never really get flat. I have nothing to back up that belief, but rushing never seems to need inspiration. I also think that it rarely is affected on the road. I've been a Rutgers man this year so I will join you

Rutgers -18.5 against UConn

While I am at it I will join a previous poster in Clemson -4 against VT. The lone point of stability in an otherwise down ACC has been Clemson. On the other hand VT has no resemblance to the powerhouse we have seen for the better part of a decade. This one will not be close.

Wake Forest -8.5 at UNC

I have been all over the traditionally bad programs that are good this year. Luckily for me, no one else seems to be doing the same. UNC is an atrocious team. They are bad on both sides of the ball and completely devoid of star power. Wake is the story of the ACC this year. They have taken on every challenge and but for a 4th Q hiccup against Clemson, would be unbeaten. Ride the Demons on Halloween weekend.

Bowling Green -19 at Temple

You don't go far playing road favorites...and yet I am doing it this week. We all know Temple is the worst program in the last 10-20 years in D1. Bowling Green is quietly putting together a nice season. They lost a lot last year and seem to be peaking.

Penn St. -3 at Purdue

This one seems to be screaming TRAP. Purdue has been a bottom feeder in the Big Ten for the last several years. They do fairly well against the bad teams and are completely outclassed by the good teams. In walks PSU coming off an unfocused win against Illinois. I believe Joe Pa will quickly gain his teams attention this week and have them rolling against Purdon't.

Florida -13.5 against Georgia in Jacksonville

I'm breaking another rule in taking a big favorite in a rival game. You would not know it but Georgia has sucked something fierce for the better part of the season. They have had trouble moving the ball for several reasons, including a revolving door at QB. The formerly fantastic D seems to have failed them lately as well. Now comes a Florida team that can shut you down on O and is incredibly well balanced when they have the ball. I think Chris Leak will use this game as a late spring board for Heisman candidacy.

Georgia Tech -5 against Miami

Sure Miami might be reeling after the fight. However, it should be remembered that the reason they are losing is an overall decrease in talent level. Several teams have taken their beatings against these punks over the years. Payback will be harsh against the stronger ACC members. GT is a stronger member. I see GT running up the score on Miami in this one.

Missouri -2 against Oklahoma

Another one of my "bad program" objects of affection this year. OU has underwhelmed me offensively this year. Take out Peterson and they have been awful. Well guess who has been taken out. Now we have a MU team that is playing a home game against an opponent that it is usually a 2 TD dawg to. The home crowd will be pumped for this one which should drive the D even more. Missouri is getting no love this year and should be at least a 6 point favorite in this one.

Jets +2 at Cleveland

The Jets are coming together. The D has been suprisingly solid most of the year. They now have a running game that is putting up yards. That goes along with a resurgent Pennington who has a top WR in Coles and and an able second in Cotchery. Cleveland has lost it's O coordinator. They have a GM who is complaining about the difficulties of the job. Charlie Frye has been hot and cold this year, and lately he is cold. This all stacks up to a J-E-T-S victory.

New Orleans -2 against Baltimore

THE PLAY OF THE DAY. How many wins against quality opponents will it take before the public realizes NO is for real. They have an opportunistic D and an O that is two deep at all the skill positions. Baltimore on the other hand used to just suck at passing. Now it is equally bad at running the ball. The Superdome is no place to get well on O, especially with the bandwagon starting to form in the Big Easy. This should be NO-3 without even thinking about it. The line shows a complete disrespect to the Saints. Take advantage of it.

Rams +10 at San Diego

I usually do not like to take teams I don't think will win..and I don't think the rams will win. However, how can you put the rams as 10 point dawgs given the legal problems on SD D and Marc Bulger's fantastic run. At the very least I think the rams can get the back end cover on this. At most I think they play SD tough until the end. I actually expect this one to be a high scoring affair.

Tulsa -14 vs. UTEP

Tulsa looks to be the class of the Conference USA with the Hurricane currently 6-1 overall, 3-0 in CUSA and likely favorites in each of their remaining games. Tulsa is the best defense in the conference, ranking 9th nationally in total defense. UTEP is among the worst defenses in CUSA, ranking in the bottom 20 nationally in total defense. The one thing UTEP does reasonably well is throw the ball, as the Miners rank 11th in the nation in passing offense. UTEP is very one dimensional, however. QB Palmer throws for 278 yards/game, but the Miners have been unable to run effectively, rushing for just 80 ypg -- even though they have played some very weak defenses, including New Meico state and Tulane -- both among the five worst defenses in the nation. However, UTEP's strength in the passing game is countered by Tulsa's pass defense. Tulsa is ranked #2 in the nation in pass defense and in its one previous game against a top passing offense, Tulsa held #5 passing offense BYU to its lowest passing output of the season (240 yards).

Tulsa has a balanced offense, with QB Paul Smith ranking in the top 20 in the nation in passing efficiency and the running game ranking in the top 30 nationally. UTEP's defense, on the other hand, is in the bottom half nationally in every category. UTEP will be the weakest defense among the board teams Tulsa has played this year. I expect the Hurricane to have one of their better offensive nights of the season. Tulsa has shown they can put teams away, winning their last three games by this margin or more. Playing on ESPN 2 before a national audience on Friday night, I expect Tulsa to bring the kind of energy necessary to cover a spread like this.

Cleveland-NY Jets OVER 37-1/2
Cleveland is ranked dead last in the NFL in total offense, so why in the world would I back them in an over? Because I believe we get line value here based on the fact that Cleveland has played several very good defensive teams. The Browns have played Denver (#4 defense in the NFL), Carolina (#18), Oakland (#5), Baltimore (#3), Cincinnati (#20) and New Orleans (#12) so far this season. Against the Jets' much more forgiving defense (#30 overall, #26 against the run and #28 against the pass), I expect the Browns to have their best offensive game of the season. Charlie Frye has had some success this year when he's not under duress from an intensive pass rush. Against the Jets (bottom five in the league in sacks) I expect Frye to have the time to find his playmakers -- particularly Winslow and Edwards -- in the passing game.

The Jets are a good "Over" team right now because defenses haven't yet quite caught on to the Jets' new and improved passing game. Chad Pennington is in the top 10 in the NFL in passing efficiency and sports an outstanding 7.3 yards per pass attempt. And last week, the Jets running game looked like it's making great progress as Leon Washington ran for over 100 yards.

Finally, we have the coaching angle. Both Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini were defensive coaches at New England. They surely know each others' defensive schemes very well and I expect both teams to have some offensive answers against these schemes.

Virginia Tech Hokies +4.5 vs. Clemson
I've gone against VT a few times this season when I thought they were over-valued or the matchups favored their opponents. The last time we saw VT, they laid an egg on national TV vs. BC. And I believe it is this memory in bettors' minds of VT's utter ineptitude that night in Boston that gives us value here. To borrow a phrase of Jack Buck, as a bettor, it's wise to sometimes ascribe to the axiom "I don't believe what I just saw." The Hokies team you saw two weeks ago in Boston is not necessarily the team you will see at home tonight.

I give a big situational edge to the Hokies tonight. For two weeks, these kids have had to live with the embarassment of losing badly on national TV. You don't think they want to regain some swagger here? And tonight they are a dog at home for the first time in three years. That last time? The Hokies beat then #2 Miami as three point home dogs. Beamer's teams are 12-6-1 ATS as home dogs, giving evidence that Beamer knows how to motivate his teams when playing better teams at home. For two weeks, this "dog" has been snarling off a bad loss. That's a big situational edge for the Hokies.

Fundamentally, the Hokies have had issues on offense, but their defense is still pretty sound. Their rush defense is outstanding. Clemson's running game is key to their offensive success, but with RB Davis hobbled a bit, I don't expect the Clemson running game to be in first-rate form. If Clemson has trouble running the ball, and I expect they will, Tech's pass rush will be unleashed against Clemson QB Proctor.

Sure, VT's offense looked inept at BC, but the young Hokies QB Glennon is playing AT HOME tonight. There is a big difference for most young QBs in their home/road performance. And in the last game vs. So. Miss, VT used a two QB system with run-oriented QB WHitaker spelling Glennon at times. Look for this "change up" that will give Clemson different looks and concerns tonight, as well.

And then there are the coaches. In ANY contest of Beamer vs. Bowden, I'll take Beamer. This is the first time these teams have played since Tech joined the ACC, so whatever rare history there is between these teams is ancient. However, Beamer's teams are 12-6-1 ATS (67%) as home dogs. Bowden's teams are 5-10-2 ATS (33%) as road favorites. Beamer apparently knows how to get his boys motivated to play against better teams when playing at home. And Bowden has apparently had some difficulty getting his teams to play to expectations when favored on the road.

Based on my power ratings that consider the matchups and comparative spread performance, I make this line even. Add in the situational factors and I think the Hokies win outright.

After a loss Thursday, I would like to add another game.

Michigan State -7 vs Indiana- WIth Michigan State's come from behind win last week, I think there ready to make a run. I know IU's tough at home, but have lost 3 there already and are coming off a loss to number 1 Ohio State.

I took a week of after my terrible performance here goes nothing:

Buffalo -35 @ BC- This game means absolutely nothing to bc and matt ryan will not play most of the game, the weather will be terrible for the game. Basically all of BC's back ups will be playing buffalo. I don't see bc scoring more than 35 points.

BC vs. Buffalo under 43.5- I like this pick because it's going to be raining/snowing with big winds. Just a meaningless game because its not in the ACC which bc will be champions of thanks to clemson's loss last night.

Bears -16.5- After a bye week, the bears make the adjustments and just roll this joke of a team

Atlanta +4 @ Cinn- The bengals have a terrible rush defense and the falcons have the best rushing attack in football.

Colts +3 @ Denver- I think the colts offense is just to good to lose to the broncos. I know that the broncos have a good defense but this colts offense can score quickly and keep a game close.

_________________
"Do work, son" -Big Black

BEARS -16

What the hell, Bears have an off week, SF showed them alot in the preseason and Bears have been winning by 30ppg at home this season and Rex has been brilliant at Soilder Field.


BENGALS -3.5[b]

Falcons have a brutal pass Defense so Palmer will have a good day. Falcons had the one good passing game a year from Vick last week, they should run but they will let Vick throw to much.

JETS vs. BROWNS OVER 37

Both teams have awful defenses and Jets have put up big points a few times this year, Jets are banged up and Browns are at home, Jets have gone over in all 7 this year.

PHILIDELPHIA -7

Phili is coming off of two tough road losses and can score like crazy at home, Jax cant win on the road and will have a hard time scoring ecspecailly banged up as they are.

PANTHERS -5

Is this the sucker bet of the week? I cant believe it's only 5, Romo, on the road, first start and an awful offensive line going up against an improving Panther D. Jake will have a big day against a sluggish Dallis road D.

WTF with my bold?

Friday Night:

Tulsa - 14 vs. UTEP. I'm with Coast on this one. Jordan Palmer for UTEP is a good QB, but he'll have to face a tough Tulsa D. Tulsa is too balanced on O to not move the ball effectively.

Sunday night
Rutgers - 19.5 vs UConn
UConn has become one dimensional when their QB went out. Rutger's number 2 defense can stack 9 in the box and attack. Their offense is rolling right now and this game being on ESPN - it's time for Rutgers to make a statement before their big games against Louisville and WV.

More to come....

Tulsa -14
Tulsa should be able to score at will against a UTEP team that allows nearly 30 ppg. Tulsa is 5-1 ATS.

Buffalo U +33.5
There is supposed to be awful weather in New England on Saturday. With the passing and kicking game affected by the conditions, points should be at a premium, therefore I will take 33.5.

Florida -13.5
Georgia has a freshman QB and a bad running game. Not a good formula for success against one of the toughest defenses in the country. Georgia has fallen apart and is 0-5 ATS in the last 5 games, and only one of those games was against a bowl team.

Kansas -2
This is the worst Colorado team that I have ever seen. Kansas is a pretty decent team, especially at home. How this line is at 2 is a complete mystery to me.

Tampa Bay Bucs +9.5
Good value play here. When last seen, the Giants were running up and down the field at Texas Stadium. The Bucs have won two in a row and are 4-1 ATS as an underdog. Factor in the short week of rest for the G-men and the Bucs should keep this close.

Northwestern +30 & under 44.5
The cats will be lucky to score at all and Michigan isnt the type of team to light up the scoreboard for style points. The Wolverines will get an early lead and be content with running out the clock all day.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Denver -2-1/2 vs. Indy
I'm getting this now because it's going to 3. What are Doug Buffone's keys to football? 1) Run the football. 2) Stop the man with the skin of the pig. 3) Rush the quarterback. Denver does those three things better than Indy.

Buffalo +34 @ BC
What Chus said. This was a flat sandwich spot for BC anyway, but it is raining in Boston this am and the winds are gusting above 30 MPH. I expect BC to get a few tuddies and then run the clock. The under might have been interesting, but it opened at 49 and is now at 42. Will take the points in what likely will be a quickly-played ground-oriented game.

Lines from the greek at 9:15 this morning

Wisconsin -21.5 over Illinois

Illinois played Penn St tough for most of last weeks game and I just dont see them playing that good again for a 2nd straight week on th road. Wisconsin has been on fire the last few weeks winning their 2 previous home games by 32 and 36 points and holding Purdue to 3 pts last week. I think the line should be 28 on this one so to lay a TD less than that is some decent value.

Ohio St -27.5 over Minnesota

Laying less than 4TD's in this matchup today. I will take that. Minnesota has been struggling the last month and got by NDST last week by 1pt at home. Ohio St has been excellent getting the money this year and I think they win this one by 35+ pts today.

Nevada -17.5 over New Mex St

Nevada again got the money as the home fav last week making them 9-0 ATS in that role lately. They go up against a NMST team that they handled by 24 on the road last year. NMST gave up 40+ in their last 2 games which were both at home. I expect Nevada to reach the 40's today also and get this one by 20+ today.

Tenn -3.5 over South Carolina

South Carolina comes in 5-2 but look at their schedule. They have wins over Wofford, Fla Atlantic, Miss St, Vandy and Kentucky. No great teams there folks. They lost earlier in the year to what has become a bad Georgia team 18-0, while Tenn beat Georgia 51-33. I think Tenn will get this one today and the fact that the visitor in this series is 9-0 lately doesnt hurt either.

HELP me Coast!

I got Texas -12 and FSU -4.5 Plus some others but what do ya think about these two prime timers?

my parlay is-

Iowa -16.5

Penn St -3

FSU -4.5

Texas -12

*three road favs a good idea?

Week 9 Locals Only

ND -13 @ Navy (46 1/2)

Irish roll up bowl eligible Navy.
Only one team will score. Under.
Irish 14 Navy 0

Penn St. @ Purdue +3 (46)

Joe Pa no gouda on the road.
Both team score 3 TD's. Over.
PSU 23 Purdue 24

_________________
CSFMB: Home of the small minded

Sorry, Belvie I was out most of the day and just saw your Q. Three road favorites is definitely not my style. I was on NIU so obviously I wouldn't have agreed with your Iowa play. Texas scares me as Tech has a history of playing their rival tough at home. I've been thinking about playing Maryland, but probably won't. SO I guess I'm saying I'm leaning the other way with the home dog in both, but won't play them. That's probably very good news for you tonight. Good luck.

Wyoming +7 @ TCU
Best defense in the Mountain West has the goods to keep the Frogs from leaping and hopping. Cowboys offense isn't a powerhouse, but they are fairly balanced. Think this one is decided by a field goal. Just been waiting to get the best possible line and catch this one as it blipped up to 7.

Tennessee-South Carolina OVER 43-1/2
The steam all week long on USC has been consistent and strong. I don't think I've seen a single tout backing the Vols. Yes, the evil genius has owned Phat Phil, but if he's going to own him tonight, he's going to have to score some points. The defenses are good, but the offenses are better. Ainge has the brighter NFL future, but I suspect Newton will make some plays tonight that only the most fleet college QBs can make. Should be a fun game to watch.

Saints -1 vs Ravens- This game is a must win for the Saints, because after this one the schedule get a little difficult. Saints lose this one and their next win could be in December. I like the Ravens D, but the O hasn't shown up yet and I think the Saints can put up enough points to pull this one out.

NFL Sunday
I’m stepping out this Sunday with my largest NFL card of the year. Just see too many games I like and lately, I’ve been leaving winners on my last cut list on sunday. This week, I’m playing them all. In addition to the Cleveland/Jets over and Denver, I’m also playing:

Tenn. Titans -3 vs. Houston
This Titans team is much more cohesive than it was a month ago and here’s a spot for Vince Young to show Houston what they passed when they didn’t draft him. I was on Houston last week, but that was against a banged up Jax team. This is a huge letdown spot for Houston after that big win last week and 2 wins in their last 3.

Arizona +4 @ Green Bay
Last week’s pratfall at Oakland was predictable after the way Arizona lost to the Bears. And the linesmaker gives the Packers love here after their win at Miami. Zona’s bad offensive line shouldn’t hurt them too badly against a weak Pack D. Leinart should be able to make plays against a very questionable Pack secondary. Favre only has Driver in full health among his receivers, so I don't expect a banner Favre day. Will Zona quit on Dennis Green? I don’t think so.

Baltimore +2 @ New Orleans
Ok this love of the Saints has gone on about long enough. I wasn't THAT wrong about this team was I? Drew Brees has been fabulous; no question about it. But he hasn’t had to face a defense like this. I also expect to see the Ravens offense more productive now that Jim Fassell is no longer calling the plays. Dominant defensive team getting points? Take.

St. Louis + 10 @ San Diego
Maybe the best new coaching job is quietly being done in St. Louis. They run the ball and they even play some defense. I expect San Diego to play very well this week, but Kansas City showed how to move the ball against them. I think St. Lou was paying attention. SD wins a close one.

Tennessee -3
2 bad teams here but Tennessee has a better defense and is playing at home.

NY Jets +1 & over 37
Jets overs are 7-0 this year. The Jets can move the ball effectively with the emergence of Leon Washington. Cleveland should score enough to push this over.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

line from the greek at 10 this morning

Arizona +3.5 over Green Bay

Got this one at 4 at my online book but 3.5 right now at the greek. Hard for me to take Arizona on the road but I think they are the more talented team in this one. I expected Arizona to lay an egg in Oakland last week which they did. They should be ready for this one today. Green Bay got the win in Miami last week but they were outgained by 100+ yds in that one. Green Bay's D is bad as Miami got 24 on them last week. I think Arizona will be able to move the ball in this one. I expect a game down to the wire and if Arizona can stay away from turnovers they might even get the SU.

San Fran +16 They are getting better have two offensive lineman back from injury and will manage the game and get enough garbage first downs to keep this a 10 pt game Bears 20 9ers 10 Da Beeaaarrrs

Green Bay -3.5 Arizona is in a downward spiral and golden boy Leinhert cant do anything about it. Look for the Packers to get about 3 picks and this to quickly become a blowout

Denver -2.5 Going against public opinion on this one. As much as I hate Jake Plummer the defense and running game are going to get the best of Peyton and the boys. Denver wins this by 2 TDs

Saints -1 Hmmm that Ravens offense is quite the juggarnaut, I dont think so. New Orleans defense is underrated and Bush has the Michael Vick factor going for him, Saints are for real

Cardinals +10 Too much offensive fire power to get blown out, even if they get way down Bulger will get some garbage Tds in the 4th quarter and keep the differential to single digits


Jets and Browns Under 37 This game will be UGLY J-E-T-S, two mediocre running games will take the stage. tossup on who wins but the score will be 13-10

Bengals: -3.5....Falcons are 12-26 ATS after they score 30+ in a game over the past 10 seasons. They scored 41 last week against the Steelers. Bengals are starting to get their pieces back, C.Henry returns today from his suspension, and they need to get on a role after their victory vs. the Panthers last weekend.

Bears/49ers: UNDER 42 - Bears want to reestablish their running game, and teams don't score much on the Bears at home. SF would be lucky to get more than a FG or two...

Jets/Browns: OVER 37 - Jets have gone OVER in every game this season, I'll take my chances with that stat today.

lines from the greek at 2:15

Pittsburgh -9 over Oakland

Laying less than double digits in this one almost seems too easy. Oakland got their first win last week while Pitt had to go to OT against Atlanta. Pittsburgh cannot afford another loss right now so I expect a big effort from them today. A 20+ victory for the Steelers is what I see today.

Over 45.5 Stl/San Diego

St Louis has gone under in their 3 previous road games this year but 2 of those should have went over. Their game in Arizona both teams went up and down the field all day with turnovers keeping the score down. In GB the Pack was inside the 20 late and a GB turnover kept that from going over. San Diego's O has put up points the last 2 weeks and I expect that to continue today. I see a 31-20 type game in this one which would put it over.