Western Conference
1 San Antonio Spurs
I have no idea why everyone is so quick to pencil in Dallas as the favorite in the West. San Antonio has owned this conference for the last few years, and if not for some craziness in the latter games of the Western Conference Finals last year, would have probably won the title. They have the best big man in the game, Duncan, and with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, one of the toughest back courts as well. I expect the Spurs to reclaim the West in '06.
2 Dallas Mavericks
A very strong team, but not as strong as San Antonio. As for all the talk about Dallas' depth, I don't see it. I like Devin Harris, and DeSagana Diop is a nice role player, but the rest of them do nothing for me. Austin Croshere? Devean George? I don't think so. And when the inevitable Jerry Stackhouse knee injury occurs, this team will be even thinner. Love the Mavericks to contend, but those suggesting they will dominate the West need to put the pipe down.
3 Phoenix Suns
Phoenix put up an impressive fight last season without the services of Amare Stoudamire. And unfortunately, there's a decent chance they may have to do it again. The new season is barely underway, and already Amare is having problems with the knee flaring up. If he can stay healthy and return to form, then Phoenix can hang with anybody in the league. But if it's Nash, Marion, and the traveling 3-point circus again in '06, that won't be enough to compete for a title. Also, their ownership should be put in front of a firing squad for the way they behaved on draft night. You're a professional basketball organization, not a single A baseball club.
4 Los Angeles Clippers
Everybody feels funny saying it, but the Clippers are a damn strong team. Cassell, Mobley, Maggette, Brand, and that ugly white mutant, Kaman, these guys can play. Maggette & Livingston need to show they can stay healthy, but other than that, there really aren't any soft spots on this squad. I expect the Clip to make a valiant run, but getting past the Spurs or the Mavs would be a hell of an upset.
5 Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers have really done a poor job of rebuilding around Kobe. Outside of Lamar Odom, they're just a bunch of overpaid backup singers. You couldn't find a better point guard than Smush Parker? Can't do any better at center than Chris Mihm? I like the Radmanovic acquisition, but unless Odom can start playing the post effectively, I'm not so sure how much it helps them. The Lakers already have a team full of guys looking to take outside shots. They'll be above .500, but don't expect postseason glory from this bunch.
6 Sacramento Kings
I have the Kings rated higher than most people do, with a lot of built-in "ifs". If, the trio of young wingmen (Garcia, Martin, Salmons) perform up to snuff. If, Ron Artest can keep it together. If, Shareef Adbur-Rahim can stay on the court and off the crutches. I don't worry about Mike Bibby and Brad Miller (though Bibby is out a few weeks with a sprained thumb), but the volatility of the rest of this roster will make or break the team.
7 Utah Jazz
The Jazz have a very solid frontcourt team. They just need to keep them healthy. Mehmet Okur played all 82 games last year, but Boozer missed a ton of time and Kirilenko has sat out for stretches in back to back seasons. I'm not exactly sold on the backcourt, though. Deron Williams is an improving combo guard and Derek Fisher is as good a backup as there is in the league, but Gordan Giricek and Matt Harpring don't do much for me. They'll make strides in '06 but don't have enough to be considered a threat.
8 Houston Rockets
This, in my opinion, is the most overrated team in the NBA. T-Mac has chronic back problems and Yao, despite being 8 feet tall, barely squeeks out 10 boards a game. The additions of Shane Battier and Bonzi Wells will help, but there isn't enough on that roster to make them any better than the eighth seed. The bags under Jeff Van Gundy's eyes continue to expand in '06.
9 New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets are an interesting bunch. They have one of the game's best point guards in Chris Paul, a slasher in Desmond Mason, a sharpshooter in Stojakovic, and a post player in David West that caught a lot of people by surprise last year. They just don't have the total package, though. Chandler will improve their post defense, but the two big men they drafted (Simmons & Armstrong) are 2-3 years away from major contributions.
10 Denver Nuggets
Outside of Carmelo Anthony & Andre Miller, there is not one reliable guy on this team. KDdidit Martin, Marcus Camby, and Nene Hilario are injuries waiting to happen. And JR Smith and Reggie Evans are total flakes. If the Nuggets didn't play in the Northwest Division, I'd probably rank them 12. But since they'll have a lot of games with cupcakes like Portland, Seattle, and Minnesota, I think their record will be a bit inflated.
11 Golden State Warriors
Much like the Knicks, this is another poorly assembled roster that has some talent but no concept of how to play together. Their PG, Baron Davis, takes way too many shots, and does so at a horrific shooting percentage. Jason Richardson has really improved his game in the past 2 seasons, but if you're going to be the primary scorer on your team, you have to shoot a better FT rate than 67%. Mike Dunleavy has been a bust, and Troy Murphy has been solid, but not spectacular. Just another NBA franchise drowning in mediocrity.
12 Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies need to find a way to survive until Christmas. Pau Gasol is out for the first 3 months of the season, and without him, they're a much weaker team. Stoudamire, Jones, and Miller are all above average on the perimeter. But if the big Spaniard suffers a setback and misses any more time than scheduled, you can pencil Memphis in for a high lottery pick.
13 Seattle Sonics
As a team, the Sonics aren't very good. But as long as they have the tandem of Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, they'll stay afloat. Surround them with a few decent role players like Ridnour, Collison, & Wilcox, and they'll probably win 30 games. I'm not expecting much from Seattle this year. They just sold the team, and their big corn-fed honky center (Robert Swift) is out for the season.
14 Minnesota T'Wolves
Sorry, but this team just flat out sucks. And if Garnett decides to opt out of his contract next offseason, these guys have a chance to be worse than the post-Jordan Bulls. Randy Foye may end up winning rookie of the year, and that might be the only good news to come out of Minneapolis this year.
15 Portland Trailblazers
After the aggressive offseason Portland just had, I'd really like to rank them higher than last. Unfortunately, they're still too shitty to be ranked any higher. They're just too young and they still have some dead weight on that roster that needs to go. 2 or 3 more solid offseasons from the front office, though, and there may be life in Portland once again.
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