mel junior wrote:
Northside_Dan wrote:
If the Big 10 gets Notre Dame, I think it'll stop at 12 teams. Notre Dame doesn't want to divide the revenue sharing pie with 15 other schools
Does adding ND to the Big 10 force new markets to pick up the Big 10 Network? I don't know if it does .... Chicago/Indiana/Michigan already pick up the network. Granted ND has a national following, but I don't know if it's enough to force out of market cities to add the channel.
That's a big part of what Mizzou brings .... KC and StL markets.
I'm still trying to figure out Nebraska.
Notre Dame brings the largest fan base in the country, period, end of story. They are a very prestigious academic institution with an enormous amount of tradition and history. They and Texas are considered the crown jewels in all of this.
The situation is so fluid right now. The key drivers are Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Texas, in that order.
1. Notre Dame – Notre Dame literally has the power to put a stop to all of this with a single stroke of the pen. They could agree to join the Big Ten, which would give the Conference its twelfth team of choice, allow it to divide into Divisions, and minimize the Conference expansion. Such a simple square peg fit into a square hole would likely eliminate the chance for future expansion in the near future and possibly forever for the Big Ten since unanimous consent is required to expand the Conference and Notre Dame would have veto power. If that happened, the Big 12 would stay intact, and there would be no fall out. Unfortunately, that is unlikely to happen at this point. Notre Dame’s hand will likely have to be forced and some dominoes have to fall before that happens.
2. Nebraska – If Notre Dame remains opposed to joining the Big Ten, then the spotlight falls on Nebraska. The Big 12 can survive without Missouri, but without Missouri and Nebraska, the Conference becomes weakened. A weakened Conference, in the face of other hungry Conferences looking to remain competitive with the Big Ten is dangerous ground for the remaining 10 teams. Unfortunately for the Big Ten, all indications at this point are that Nebraska and Missouri are in favor of joining the Big Ten at this point and the Big 12 seems unable to move Texas toward an agreement to share revenue that would keep the Conference intact. If you asked me today, I would say Missouri and Nebraska agree to join the Big Ten and the Big 12 becomes weakened.
3. Texas – If this plays out, then Texas becomes the key player. They are the crown jewel that everyone wants. They have five options. Remain in a weakened Big 12 that could further erode with a hungry PAC-10 to the West and try and pick up a few other teams like TCU, etc. to fill the holes further reducing the integrity of the Conference, join the Big Ten and therefore becoming the southern edge of the Super Conference, join the SEC with another team in a package deal like Florida State to expand that Conference to 14 and solidifying it as the ultimate Mega Conference, go Independent like Notre Dame and try and develop their own personal TV network deal like Notre Dame has with NBC, or the most likely scenario shaping up at the moment, which by itself seems crazy to even contemplate, and that is to become part of a six team super transition that would shift every major program remaining in the Big 12 over to the PAC-10, creating a 16 team Mega Conference, allowing them to divide quite well into Divisions of 8 teams each, allow Texas to retain the bulk of its rivalries inside the Division, and probably create the most powerful Conference in the sport.
A PAC-10 16 team Mega Conference being proposed would likely include Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and Baylor. These 6 teams would form their own division with Arizona and Arizona State. A South Division to battle the West Division that would consist of Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Cal, UCLA, and Stanford, essentially pitting the best players from California against the best players from Texas in the Conference Title every year.
The craziest thing is that so much is left to be decided that this is pure speculation and smoke with a tiny hint of fire. The ball truly seems to be in Nebraska’s court. Since Notre Dame has passed on the opportunity to put a stopper in this shakeup, Nebraska is up to bat. They now seem to control the destiny of College Football’s future in their AD’s hands.