This weekly wagering contest will reward the best football prognosticator with a $100 gift certificate from a meat/steak company. New guys can still join in any time and you don't have to make a pick every week. You can post your plays any time, but they must be posted before a game you are playing kicks off. You must make your picks in this thread and you must provide at least one reason for each pick.

The winner will be the guy with the best record after the NFL regular season and college bowl games are concluded. You must have at least 50 picks by season's end to win the prize. Please use and post the prevailing lines at the time of your picks from one of the two largest offshore casinos: thegreek.com or pinnaclesports.com.

Overall, the board had a losing week last week, going 47-61-2 ATS. For the year, the board is 332-330 (50%).

................................Last Week......................Season........................... %
Not in the Biz.............. 0-0 ..............................7-3.............................. 70
Doug........................... 0-0.............................. 6-4-2.......................... 60
Hawkeye Vince.............0-5.............................. 24-17..........................58
Chus.............................7-6..............................42-32-3......................57
Bud Dude.................... 6-3-1............................30-24-2.....................56
donspiracy.................. 9-9-1............................ 40-37-1......................52
sabu............................1-6.............................. 15-14-1......................52
Rocks and Blows........ ..0-5........................... ..19-18-2.......................51
Coast...........................7-6.............................49-47-3....................... 51
Mr. Belvidere ............. 5-5.................................5-5.............................50
the gooch....................1-3 .............................. 15-16..........................48
Matt Murton’s Beard.... 0-0.............................. 16-17-1.......................48
Good dolphin.............. .0-1............................ 15-20.............................43
Mitch Cumstein........... ..3-2.............................11-16............................41
reents..........................8-10......................... 35-52-2.........................40
Woodridge Ryan......... 0-0............................... 1-2..............................33
BD................................0-0.............................2-6.................................25

Coast, last week you had me at 24-21-1 and after going 6-3-1 this week you have me at 35-28-3? I havent been keeping track so I just wanted to bring this to your attention. If last weeks totals were correct then I should be 30-24-2 right now. Thanks.

Tonight

Northern Illinois -12
&
over 53.5

NIU is better on both sides of the ball, and have a huge home field advantage. Toledo is starting a red shirt freshmen and are 1-4 ATS over the last five. Toledo allows 157 rushing YPG, and they have yet to see a running game like this.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Ole Coast was apparently a little foggy last night when he did the weekly updates. Another player contacted me via PM that I screwed up his record too. I'll check and fix tonight. Sorry guys. Damn...five days in the Pacific Time Zone and my body clock (and apparently my brain) are still operating on central time.

No sweat coast. I appreciate you taking the time to put this whole thing together.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Temple +36
I have a real hard time ever taking Temple, but 36 is too much for this Penn State squad to cover. As bad as the Owls are, they are better than they have been over the last few years. Penn State's offense at times looked like they are spinning their wheels, and this is way too many points.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Week 11 Thurday Night Thunder

Buffalo U @ Akron -17 (47)

Zips will round up a lot TD's.
Bulls don't get double digits. Under.
Bulls 9 Akron 35

Louisville -6 1/2 @ Rutgers (51)

Louisville runs over Bambi with a dump truck.
Scarlet Knights poop themselves on live TV. Under.
Louisville 27 Rutgers 20

Wyoming @ BYU -18 1/2 (45 1/2)

Ranked Cougars wrap up Mountain West.
Cowboys exposed and cling to bowl eligibility. Under.
Wyoming 10 BYU 34

_________________
CSFMB: Home of the small minded

Louisville -6.5

The cinderella story ends tomorrow night in New Jersey. Rutgers hasn't seen a pass rush like this. Louisville's offense looked great last week, and should handle one tuddy.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Rutgers +7, -114 vs. Louisville
Another Thursday night home dog and another Thursday night in which I'm going opposite the public. Last week, I was a lone wolf going with Louisville. Tonight, I'm in the minority going against them. Here I'm backing the best defense in the BIg East and a top five defense nationally to slow down the Louisville offense and keep this a low-scoring game. (I had a lean to the under, but the number has already come down four points and I don't like following line moves of that magnitude). Rutgers is 2nd in the nation in total defense and has allowed only 73 points in 8 games, for a strong 9 ppg. Rutgers has a strong pass rush, ranking 3rd in the nation in sacks with 3.75 per game. This has been a key reason why Rutgers ranks 2nd in the nation in pass defense, as opposing QBs are often under duress. Rutgers is also in the top 15 nationally in rush defense. Rutgers isn't going to stop the Louie offense cold -- I'm not sure any defense will do that. But I do believe they can contain Louie by keeping the offense off the field for a majority of the game. I expect Rutgers to play ball control with their rushing attack (12th nationally in rushing). The Scarlet Knights have shown they can possess the ball and control clock against decent run defenses (Pitt, Illinois) -- but the Louie defense will be its toughest test yet. Louie has a good defense (24th nationally against the run and leads the nation in sacks). Because of the strong Rutgers rush defense, I expect Louie to make the majority of its yards in the air. I expect RU to outrush Louisville and I'll play the running dog angle here (dogs who win the rushing stats are a 70% ATS play). I think this game stays thisclose to the wire.

Cincinnati +19 @ West Virginia
This looks like a good spot to go against a West Virginia team that had its bubble burst in its last game vs. Louisville. The Mountaineers players no longer can have realistic expectatations for a shot at the national title. Often times, teams in the title hunt are deflated after their first losses and it shows in their next game. The Cincy Bearcats seem to be a much improved team now than earlier in the season and look like they are learning how to win under 2nd year coach D'Antonio. They have won four of their last five and have covered six straight. The only blemish in the last month was a six point loss to Louisville (as 25 point dogs). While their offense is still a work in progress (averaging just 20 ppg the last five games) CIncy has been winning with its defense, allowing just 11 ppg. over the last five. Fundamentally for Cincy, it's all about stopping the WVU running game and they have shown against other opponents that they are capable of doing it. Cincy is now the #1 rush defense in the Big East (moving ahead of Rutgers) and is a strong 13th nationally against the run. And even in the loss to Louisville, Cincy outrushed Louisville 202-105 and was outgained in total yards just 429-341 by the powerful Louie offense. West Virginia is much more one-dimensional than Louisville and I believe the Cincy D is up to the task of containing White, Slaton and the Eers' rushing attack.

Carolina vs. Tampa Bay over 37.5

The Bucs defense is starting to look old, and the Panthers defense has been shredded a few times as of late. Carolina should have DeAngelo Williams back, so their running game should improve a bit, opening up more downfield passing. The Bucs are capable of a few late scores to push this over.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Navy -14

Navy has been a strong November team over the last few years. They are 13-3 ATS over their last 4 games of the year since 2002, averaging 37.2 ppg. EMU has the #113 ranked rushing defense, despite not facing a top rushing offense.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Wyoming +18

Both teams have similar rushing offense and defense. BYU likes to throw it around, but Wyoming has the 4th best pass defense in the NCAA.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Thursday Night dim lights


Louisville -7- Ill take the cardinal here. Louisville should roll it up tonight. Point differential is what I am looking at here. Rutgers is a tough task in the chemical fields of NJ, and one must admire the moxie that the Rutgers program has (impressive 3 year run out of the dregs of the College Football world (Schiano 28-25-1 v the spread under him, 12 -7 as a home dog kiddies!!!). But I look to the 2005 contest where Louis. put a whippin down at Louisville. (Louisville 56- Rutgers 5) with the Scarlet Knight as a 21 point dog. Louis. returns some 53 lettermen to their team, and has had injury problems. This is a game where Louisville must show everyone that they can go the the BCS bowl and play for all of it. Ill take Louisville and give it on the road. Ill take high octane O over solid D and running here

Rutgers +7

Sabu, we would not even be talking about Louisville if WV hadn't given away that game last week. WV is a one dimensional offense and it moved the ball well against Louisville. Hell they moved the ball well even when they were down to only their QB being available. Rutgers can and will rush the ball better than WV did. They will play much better D as well. Give me the Knights of the Landfill.

I am cursed. Mac just endorsed Louisville.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Louisville vs. Rutgers OVER 50.5

If anyone saw Louisville WVU they know the card's defense is below average. Coupled with a high scoring offense and Rutgers giving the Card's a game this will be easily over 50 and a half.

Some sharps and big $$ players are pounding Rutgers so if you like Louisville, you will probably get 6 or less by game time. Glad I bought Rutgers this morning when I did on the blip up to 7, because it's headed lower now....

I'll take Rutgers +6 (at 3:50 pm.) Good call, as usual, on the line move C2C.
L'ville is dealing with some national media pressure they have never faced, and I have to think there are about at the end of the line emotionally. I think these 2 are too evenly matched to support the line.

Rutgers +6 vs Louisville- This is a pick where I have bought into Rutgers and don't want Louisville in the title game this year. I think this will be a low scoring game with either Louisville scoring a late touchdown to win by 3 or 4 points or losing a close game. Rutgers actually has 2 running backs, Rice and Leonnard. I love RUTGERS!!!

For Saturday:
Minnesota @ Michigan State +2.5 AND Under 58

Minnesota put up 63 last week on Indiana so the odds maker say they are a touchdown favorite (in theory) against Michigan State. This is senior day for the Spartans and quarterback Drew Stanton will want to go out on a good note before the NFL Draft. MSU has played reasonably well at home. They are predicting rain and high winds in East Lansing for Saturday as well so this game might be messy. Taking a chance on it.

Temple +36 @ Penn State
This feels funny to write, but Temple is starting to play a little bit better ball, actually scoring some points and covering 5 of their last 6. Joe Pa will not be at the game Saturday and Penn State has only scored more than 36 once this year. Give me the load of points.

UCF @ Memphis Over 55.5
Both teams have really went in the toilet this year. Both are capable of scoring near 30 and giving up 40 so I am going over here. Memphis games this year are 6/1( Over to under).

Texas -16 @ Kansas State
Kansas State has put together a nice year in the Big 12. They are bowl eligible. Now it's time to play a real club. The last two real clubs resulted in one sided losses. Make that 3 as Colt McCoy starts up the 2007 heisman campaign. Texas in a walk.

La. Tech @ Hawaii -37.5
Hawaii is no stranger to giving up alot of points and this is a ton. They are 6-1-1 against the spread this year and 14-2-1 ATS against losing teams. They are averaging over 47 points per game and in their last 5 it's up near 50 points per game. La Tech is bad. Just bad.

Coast - what are you thoughts on the Miami, FL mindset this weekend?

I don't know how Miami could be very focused on this game. The season is a lost cause, their coach will likely be fired and they'll be mourning their fallen player. I suppose they could try to rise up and win one for his memory, but this team has had other opportunities to step up and win an important game and it hasn't shown it can do that. I liked Maryland a little to win the game before this happened and like them more now.

But having said that, I'm not so high on Maryland that I'm excited about laying points with them. They've been good as a dog, but now we'd be asking them to lay points against a better defense.

Agreed - it's not like MD has blown anyone out of the gym (wrong sport analogy). I'm actually surprised they kept a line for this one.

Ohio St. -23.5
Final tuneup for the Buckeys before Michigan, and before last week against Illinois, Ohio St. had walked through the Big 10 with little/no problems as teams have had trouble scoring. I expect that to happen Saturday with Ohio St. returning to it's dominating form as Troy Smith should rebound from his worst game of the season - Ohio St. 38-3.

Alabama +18 @ LSU
Bama had a WTF game last week, losing to Mississippi State, but that was one of those games that happens to college kids. It does not mean that suddenly Bama is a worse team than MSU. One can never over-react to what they see in one game...especially the last game. The line might over-react a little to a game like that, but I won't. Bama has lost one game by double digits all year, and that was by 15 at Florida in a game in which the yardage stats were very close (7 yards net difference). And that game was a 1 point game into the fourth quarter, when turnovers did in the Tide. (Last Gators TD was a 70 yd. interception return when Bama was driving for the tying score). This LSU defense is outstanding and is the best D in the SEC, but the Bama defense isn't too bad either. The Bama D ranks 1st in turnover margin, 3rd in rushing D, and fourth in total D. This game has a total of 39, meaning the linesmakers expect this to be a low-scoring defensive tussle, with an "expected outcome" of 28-10. I don't think LSU gets to 28.

Central Michigan -6

CMU is probably the best team in the MAC, and is 8-1 ATS. WMU has barely squeaked out their last two games, despite being double digit favorites.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Philadelphia Eggles -7 vs. Skins
Buying this now as I expect it to be more expensive by Sunday...and I want to capture this key number. Coming off the bye, i expect Eggles to seize the advantage big time with their offense vs. the Skins' questionable defense. Fluke win last week vs. Cowboys should not delude anyone into thinking this Skins defense is good. High scoring, but see no value in playing the inflated total. Fantasy players with McNabb and Westbrook et al. should seize the day.

Cincinnati +19
The Bearcats have been playing much better as of late and are 6-1-1 ATS. WV's championship dreams have been smashed, and may come out flat.

Kent State +30.5
VT has a great defense, but a very inconsistent offense. KSU has the 22nd rushing offense, and a solid defense. Coming off of an embarassing loss to Buffalo last week, they will step up this week and cover the huge number.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Detroit -6
I can't believe that I am taking the Lions laying points. But there offense is finally clicking, especially at home. Even their defense has settled down a bit. The 49ers are awful on both sides of the ball.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

South Carolina +13 @ Florida
The EG Spurrier returns to the Swamp with a running, playmaking QB and a defense that has not been stomped by any SEC team. Spurrier's boys beat the Gators last year, and while I don't expect another outright upset, I do expect the Gamecocks to be competitive and stay in the game -- just as they have done in every SEC game since the first week of the season.

Georgia +12-1/2 @ Auburn
The basic premise behind this play is that Auburn is over-rated and over-valued. As bad as the Georgia offense has struggled this year, the Dawgs have hung in every SEC game except for the Tennessee game in which a few special teams plays broke that one open. The Dawgs' offense has had comparable yardage as Auburn has against common opponents. Georgia actually has a slight defensive advantage. The Dawgs hold opponents to .6 yard less per carry than does Auburn.

Oregon +9 @ USC
Oregon State showed that this USC defense could be beaten and Oregon has many more weapons than Oregon State. Dixon is having a decent year at QB and the Ducks running game has been solid. Having Ducks Offensive Coordinator Gary Crowton calling the plays makes me a little nervous, but he seems to have been restrained a bit by head coach Bellotti. Only Cal has outgained Oregon this year and I'm not convinced USC will win the yardage stats here either. Should be a fun shootout.