One off the more pressing issues since the announcement of Nebraska as the 12th and final member of the Big Ten (yes, final, and yes, make your “har har college football conference can’t count” jokes now) is the establishment of six-team divisions for 2011. Most of the power in the Big Ten would seem to be situated to the East. Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State are a formidable trio, and Michigan State is probably above-average in terms of historic success. Putting those four teams in one division might set up unbalanced divisions, such as what we saw with the Big 12 South dominating the Big 12 North nearly every season this decade.

But look a little bit closer, and this concern seems to fade. Ohio State is the unquestioned leader of the conference right now, and has been for about a decade. Michigan is down, but one would have to think that the slump will not be permanent--even if Michigan isn’t back to championship level for a few years, they should not be missing many bowls from here on out.

But what about Penn State? Yes, they went to the Rose Bowl after the 2008 season and won a share of the Big Ten championship. Penn State also won the Orange Bowl in 2005 and was one second away from a perfect season heading into what would have been the national championship game. Those years were aberrations:

Big Ten record (ranking)

2000: 4-4 (6th)
2001: 4-4 (4th)
2002: 5-3 (4th)
2003: 1-7 (9th)
2004: 2-6 (9th)
2005: 7-1 (1st)
2006: 5-3 (4th)
2007: 4-4 (5th)
2008: 7-1 (1st)
2009: 6-2 (2nd)

That’s 45-35 over those years--not bad, to be sure, but not the record that the last few years would have indicated. Penn State finished in the Top 25 in the AP poll only five of those years, and one of those years (2006) they were ranked 24th. Once again, good, but not great. Penn State has gone undefeated in the Big Ten once, in 1994.

This is also ignoring the elephant in the room, the impending retirement (or, unfortunately, death) of Joe Paterno. Penn State without Paterno is almost unimaginable, but the record of teams that have recently lost their long-tenured, iconic coaches is not inspiring. Nebraska is just now returning from mediocrity in the wake of the Osborne retirement. Alabama would win a national championship about a decade after Bear Bryant retired, but there were some down years between that triumph, and much of this decade was spent trying to rekindle that magic from the seventies. Texas after Darrell Royal and Oklahoma after Barry Switzer provide analogues as well.

The signs of future decline can already be intuited. The Nittany Lions currently have fewer 2011 commits than any other Big Ten team. That will change, but there is no doubt that their talent will lag behind some of their brethren schools in the coming years. Penn State did have the top class in the Big Ten last year, but not by much, and it was generally regarded as a poor year for Big Ten recruiting in general. In any event, 2010 was an aberration in that respect, as previous years were mediocre recruiting years as well.

Even worse for Penn State, this post-Paterno decline might start a little sooner than anticipated. The Nittany Lion defense should be stout, as usual, and Evan Royster is perhaps the best back in the Big 10. The situation at QB, however, is an unmitigated disaster. Kevin Newsome is the putative starting QB, but all reports indicate that the sophomore is not handling the position well--he went 5 for 12 in the spring game, for example. The second in line is former walk-on Matt McGloin, which should scare the hell out of every Penn State fan; even if Newsome is totally awesome, the Nittany Lions have absolutely no depth at the most important position on the field. Add in early out-of-conference dates with Alabama (good luck) and a surprisingly strong Temple team--which I’m calling for Temple right now--and Penn State may need four conference wins just to get to bowl eligibility.

All of which is to say, the Big Ten should not go about looking for the “perfect” competitive balance when formulating the conferences. There is a perfect geographical division between the states of Indiana and Illinois that would leave several strong programs in each division. Just as the Big 12 North--with national championship contenders Colorado, Kansas State, and Nebraska--was supposed to dominate the South year after year, we may find that a Big Ten East proves not to be quite as daunting as feared, especially if the Michigan renaissance fails to materialize and Penn State suffers an inevitable malaise.

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Fire Phil Emery

Why do we have to do geographical based divisions? It's not like we have a team in Florida going to face a team in Oregon. I guess for ease of understanding who is where.

Second, if they go east/west (which they should) I agree with the assessment that you can't be concerned with who is good now, because things change. I remember when Miami, VT, and BC joined the ACC and they were supposed to become a super conference because Miami, VT, and Florida State were in the same conference...well I'm still waiting.

Penn State will suffer after Joe does something (and with the way he was at the big ten luncheon, people are concerned) I think the important thing to do would be to bring in another established/proven head coach and not to promote from within because they would need to get someone who knows what they do. However, this is Penn State, and the football program has a bit of a mom and pop shop feel, so I would be surprised if they find an outside hire.

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Assuming Kirk's kids are out of school at Iowa when JoePa departs, Kirk Ferentz will be on the list of potential replacements. He's a 'local' who has built a second echelon program at Iowa and has a clean reputation.

If Kirk wants the job, he will probably have to take a paycut. though to be fair, I don't know how much Ferentz is paid, but Paterno is surprisingly (or not) paid only about 480k last year, That seemed a bit low when you hear about college coach salaries, but he is the highest paid employee at Penn State, and there was much outrage (feigned or otherwise) that he was paid that much.

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There are at least three people who are waiting for that position to open: Ferentz in Iowa, Schiano at Rutgers, and Golden at Temple. Silly as it sounds, if Temple beats Penn State this year, Golden might be the front runner. But regardless of who takes over (and I think all three are at least decent choices, if not better), there will be at least a temporary dropoff as the program adjusts. Paterno is Penn State, and recruits may show some hesitation about playing at a Paterno-less Penn State. That's not to say that Penn State is destined for years at the cellar of the Big Ten, or that those coaches can't do well at PSU. But assuming that Penn State will always be one of the top programs ignores even recent history.

As for geography, it may not be Florida and Oregon, but Happy Valley and Lincoln are over 1200 miles away from one another. To put that into perspective, Orlando is 50 miles closer to Chicago than Lincoln is to Happy Valley. The distances aren't trivial.

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Fire Phil Emery

One could argue that Penn State already went through that down period before Paterno basically turned over control of the program to his staff. It's very possible that they'll go through that again. How many 18 year olds are really committing to Penn State because of Joe Paterno these days?

As for the divisions, I just have a hard time believing that the Big Ten office is going to think it's a good idea to leave a potential Michigan-Ohio State Big Ten title game. Do you remember a few years back when Michigan was good and both teams were national title hopefuls? That was one of the most hyped Big Ten games ever. Add in the fact that Michigan-OSU would obviously still play every year as a protected rival and the Big Ten would be giving up a lot putting them in the same division and Purdue and Indiana would both likely have major complaints being stuck with Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State while Illinois and Northwestern have only one historically great team in Nebraska.

I don't mean this is a serious suggestion but they could make an INNER and OUTER Division.
INner would constitute the teams that come from states with I's and N's. The Outer would have the others.
INNER:Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, Nebraska, Iowa
Outer: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State

Those divisions are also really unbalanced.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Both Michigan and Ohio State want to be in the same division. Neither team wants to repeat the game two weeks in a row, which will be a possibility if they are split up. It's not impossible that they will be split up, but pretty darn close, so any division scenario needs to take into account that they will be together. The only question is whether Penn State would make that division "too strong," and I say no.

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Fire Phil Emery

I agree. And it's all cyclical. With a 9 game Big Ten Schedule, I think travel costs will be a pretty even on a year by year basis which is typically the number one concern/reason to do the geographical split

I disagree. I think equal and equitable divisions would be:

East

Ohio State
Penn State
Michigan
Michigan State
Indiana
Northwestern

West

Nebraska
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Illinois
Purdue

I would flip Purdue and Northwestern to give the West a bit more depth. While the East is a bit more top heavy, the West consisting of Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Iowa is pretty solid based on the performance over the past five years of those teams. Based on today’s rankings, you would have #2, #19 and four unranked teams in the East (sure, Michigan is likely to be a ranked team long term between #5 and #20). In the West, you would have #8, #9, and #12 with three unranked teams.

Long term, Ohio State is a top 10 team. Penn State is a #10-#20 ranked team. Michigan is #5-#20 ranked team. Michigan State is a fringe top 25 team and Northwestern is a super fringe top 25 team. Indiana is a doormat.

In the West, Nebraska is a #10-#20 team. Wisconsin is a #10-#20 team. Iowa is a #15-#25 team. Purdue, Minnesota, and Illinois are all either fringe or super fringe top 25 teams (Illinois and Minnesota were ranked at the back of the top 25 every year just 3-5 years ago before becoming doormats today).

No need to overcomplicate this. Plus, we’re going to play Michigan and Penn State every year anyway.

If there's no need to complicate things, why make break up two intrastate rivalries for the sake of substituting Purdue and Northwestern? That seems exceedingly minor, and at the expense of the Indiana and Illinois schools not regularly facing one another.

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Fire Phil Emery

BTW, Northwestern coming tonight, if I have the energy, Minnesota over the weekend. Come on, it's August, where's all the football talk?

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Fire Phil Emery