Once upon a time, Northwestern was the team that people forgot when asked who the eleven teams in the Big Ten are. They might still be that team, but not for lack of trying. For the second year in a row, NU played in the most exciting bowl game of the year, this time falling just short of upsetting Auburn in the Outback Bowl. As Wisconsin is to basketball, Northwestern has become to football, as NU has fielded a series of overlooked and unrenowned players that have consistently outperformed their projections.

Unfortunately, Northwestern football mirrors Wisconsin basketball in another way: the lack of postseason success. Yes, Northwestern took its bowl opponent to overtime in both 2008 and 2009, but the bowl misery streak continues. Northwestern has gotten over a lot of humps—the mid-90s Rose Bowl teams did not usher in a period of purple dominance, but NU has at least become a mid-pack team most years. Perhaps it seems greedy to ask for more, but at some point, that success must be consummated in January (or, at least, late December) to be considered fully legitimate.

The problem extends beyond bowl season. Northwestern has scheduled pitifully in recent years, and has performed even worse. After losing to Duke in 2007, NU barely mustered a victory against the Blue Devils in 2008; this was their toughest out of conference test. Northwestern lost to Syracuse in 2009 (Syracuse went 3-8 against FBS competition) and needed every second to defeat winless Eastern Michigan. Northwestern faced two MAC teams last season with a combined 1-23 record, both at some, and won those games by a total of 13 points.

That general pattern has held true, even in the successful years—win small, lose nasty. Penn State went into Evanston and thrashed the Wildcats 34-13. Michigan State won by 10 in a game that wasn’t quite that close. The season before, the Wildcats lost to Michigan State by 17 and Ohio State by 35. These losses have always inculcated a sense that maybe, despite the records, Northwestern was never quite what the record might have led one to believe.
On the other side of the ledger, Northwestern was quite fortunate to win several of their games. Purdue turned the ball over six times in a game Northwestern won by six points. Indiana gave up a 21 point lead to lose by one. Ricky Stanzi’s flimsy ankle gave way in the game at Iowa. An iffy interception on Illinois’s final drive cemented the victory in Champaign.

All of those wins are legitimate, but a play or two the other direction in each game could have meant 4-8, in a season where Ohio State did not appear on the schedule. This doesn’t seem like a 4-8 team, either, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be suspicious of the 8-4 record, either.

In the meantime, a steady procession has meant improvement in recruiting, but gains have been slow; perceptions of Northwestern as a doormat are still common. Claiming a few legitimate pelts will help. The win against Iowa last season was probably the biggest upset, but with Iowa’s starting QB going down early in that game, the best win for Northwestern last season was against a strong Wisconsin team. NU has parlayed weak schedules into strong final records, but if attitudes are going to change, they may need a “wow” moment similar to their victories against ND and Michigan in 1995.

As for this year’s team, as with Wisconsin Basketball, predicting anything worse than a middle of the pack finish is treacherous, although the team on paper (as always) seems weaker than that. NU loses surprisingly efficient QB Mike Kafka, but the NU offense has reached Texas Tech-levels of plug-and-chug at the QB position, dating back to Zak Kustok. The defense lost some talent as well, such as D-lineman Cory Wootten, but once again, for whatever reason, losses of individual players has not yet hurt this team (how long will that last?) But until Northwestern wins that next big game, preferably in a bowl, both Northwestern and Big Ten fans may be forgiven for thinking that waiting for the great Northwestern breakthrough might have the same results as waiting for Godot.

_________________
Fire Phil Emery

That's a really good writeup. I really like the Wisconsin basketball comparison. I will point out that Wisconsin's basketball success was actually built largely through recruiting and going by rivals star ratings they actually performed as you would hope in the regular season and underperformed greatly in the post-season. Has Northwestern ever gotten a 5 star recruit in football? I don't think so. Wisconsin basketball had multiple in a sport where 2 of them make you a top 10 team immediately. That's not a knock on Northwestern either. I think Purdue only has one and he's in jail for the next 30 years.

The hard part for Northwestern now is taking that next step up. Let's be honest, when they still show up on the schedule, the really good teams still pencil them in as a likely win and most other Big Ten teams say they are a toss up. It may be unfair because they are a good team but they don't really scare anyone on the schedule.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Illinois always pencils in Northwestern as a win.

It's a good thing they don't use pen.

_________________
The Court will accord substantial deference to the government's immigration policies, particularly those that implicate matters of national security.

Gotta be honest, I don't follow the recruiting system much... so help me out. Who were the other 5 stars besides Butch?

Found it on Scout, and I went back until 2002 (as far as they let you go) and the only one is Butch. Couple of 4 stars in there. But no other 5's.

Krabenhoft makes two of them since 2003. I think that only Ohio State and Michigan State had more than that.
I said rivals ratings as it's a superior service in my opinion. They had Krabenhoft as a 5 star also.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Gotcha. When I read "Wisconsin basketball had multiple in a sport where 2 of them make you a top 10 team immediately" I figured there were a lot more.

It's always cute when NU fans try to be cocky.

_________________
My Maserati does 186.

I understand. The concept of what "multiple" means is a difficult one.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Have a great day, Rick!

Suprisingly great characterization of the state of the NU program. You almost lost credibility is misspelling Wootton's name wrong! But seriously, you did an excellent job. I think I'm a little greedy to expect more. At the end of the day, it has been an exciting program to watch. The program has definitely taken on the personality of the coach.. And that is a good thing. An undersized player who plays above his weight class. My only hope is that we can start having some success in attracting Chicago sports fans to Big Ten games in Evanston.

I got the two Os and two Ts without looking it up. Give me some credit for that.

_________________
Fire Phil Emery

I'm looking to go to the night game I think versus Purdue.

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

I am interested in it also but I will have been in Chicago a few weeks earlier for a wedding so I'm not sure if it works logistically.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Gonna be a night game. Should be lots of fun. GD... I'm going to that game, but I may have extra tickets. Only downside is you might have to sit next to me.

One thing we have going in the right direction is recruiting. While still likely in the bottom half of the Big 10 in terms of "star" talent, we have been making inroads with big names. There were about 5 guys that had us in their top 4 or 5 where the others included power schools like Ohio State or Notre Dame. Most recently we have seen it with Dez Showers where we made it into his top 4 with Michigan, Michigan St., and Florida. This may not seem that big of a deal if we don't land him (horseshoes and hand grenades, right?), but this is leaps and bounds above where we have been in the last 20 years. The Wildcats are in the discussion now, which is a big improvement. Only time will tell if we can take the next step. We got there with Patrick Ward last year (a local 4-star recruit), but there are only so many 4-stars with a 4.0 GPA who want to study mechanical engineering.

http://www.freep.com/article/20100818/SPORTS06/100817067/1238/Sports/Madisons-Valdez-Shower-to-decide-next-week

BTW Mud - I am toying with bringing the whole famn damily up to Evanston in November.

I haven't been to a game in a long long time. I think it's time to return.
I promise not to try to lake the posts.

MUD is there any way to get a tailgating spot near the stadium if you're not a
season ticket holder? I miss the days of day-of-game parking on the east side
of the stadium and parking on the golf course.

_________________
Everyday when the sun goes down, I get with my friends, I begin to clown.
Now I don't care what the people are thinkin'. I ain't drunk, I'm jus' drinkin'!
-Albert King

I know Northwestern is proud of the Outback Bowl effort, and it was obviously a very exciting game. But it's time to let it go. You can't go through the Northwestern website without finding repeated references to that game. This is a problem because:

1.) You lost
2.) It was the Outback Bowl
3.) Auburn wasn't that good (fringe #25 team, 3-5 in SEC)

If you're going to pump up the program, point out that you've defeated a top 25 Iowa team two years in a row, both at Kinnick. Point to the win over Wisconsin, who went on to spank Miami. Point to dominating your instate rival Illinois as of late. But let the bowl loss go. You make yourself look like, well, Northwestern, which is what you're trying to avoid. The only other team in the Big Ten that would do this is Indiana, and the comparison is not flattering.

_________________
Fire Phil Emery

I hear you about their website referencing the bowl game, but that Auburn team was good. Auburn

1) Almost beat the ultimate national champions, Alabama
2) Always considered in contention for top 4 in the SEC
3) Consistently gets top tier recruiting classes
4) Has a football athletic budget that is something like 6-8 times the size of a school like NU

I'm sorry, but when little ole NU takes Auburn to the wire in what was definitively the most exciting game of the 2009-10 Bowl Season, I think they have a little room to talk about it.

And it's not like it happened 3 years ago... do you think they do much updating to the website in the off season when there isn't much to talk about? That being said, if all that stuff is still in December, it does look a little silly.

If you park just north of Noyes, it is an easy walk across the golf course to the stadium. No more than a 10 minute casual walk.

I'm going with my father in law. I might have a couple extra tickets... I'll let you know closer to the date. Would be good to meet up!

Another local expert Tom Lemming, posted a nice article on the uptick in NU's recruiting...

Wildcats on the prowl
By Second Seasonon August 13, 2010 10:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
Several readers have asked why Northwestern is being described as a perennial bowl participant and consistent winner by national college football observers, why it appears that coach Pat Fitzgerald's program currently is rated well ahead of in-state rival Illinois by everybody who is evaluating the 2010 season in the Big Ten.

It all come down to recruiting. Academics is an excuse when you don't get the best players. But if you evaluate and recruit correctly, you can find them. Northwestern is doing it. The Wildcats have better recruiters now. Fitzgerald is the face of the program, young and energetic, but he has build a solid organization. They have a lot to sell at Northwestern.

And that isn't all. Athletic director Jim Phillips does a good job of promoting the school, as the Chicago Blackhawks hyped their team during the past two years to build interest.

It is a business and the folks in Evanston realize it. They have done a good job of promoting the program, the coach, the school and the future. Phillips is as important to NU's success as Fitzgerald. He did the same thing at Northern Illinois. His primary objective is to increase NU's home attendance, one of the lowest of any major program.

In case you haven't noticed, Northwestern is getting better athletes. No, they haven't caught up to Ohio State, Penn State or Michigan. But they are getting better athletes than usual. They have a national scope. They are in the mix for players in Texas, Florida and California. They are taking Notre Dame's approach to national recruiting.

At the moment, Fitzgerald has commitments from 13 players. None of them rate four or five stars on anybody's chart but several of them have the potential to be standouts in college, including tight end Jack Konopka of Fremd, defensive backs Sean Cotton of Walther Lutheran and Jarrell Williams of Richards, offensive lineman Matt Frazier of Bishop McNamara and quarterback Zack Oliver of Baton Rouge, La.

Here is another example of a guy who puts us in his top seven from a list of over 30 offers. It's NJ speedster RB, Miles Shuler.

Another sign of the progressing times. We continue to find ourselves on the "short list" for an increasingly eye-popping level of big-time recruits. Granted, we're not exactly closing the deal (see: Justice Hayes most recently) on the true blue chips quite yet, but it's great to see guys like Miles Shuler - the 4-star "athlete" from Long Branch, NJ narrowed his list of 30 mostly BCS offers down to seven - and NU is very much alive. The list includes home state Rutgers, Pitt, Michigan, Florida, Notre Dame, and NU's new version of Michigan State in recruiting rival - Nebraska. The 'Cats are of course one of the seven. Shuler claims to be high on academics which is good for NU as he points out since that element is "ridiculous". WildcatReport.com interviewed Shuler who cited Fitz as being "very close" and he paints NU as an "up and coming" program.

I doubt we close this one either... my guess is Florida or Notre Dame.

Cool. After looking at the schedule again, I would likely comes with Mrs HV and not the kids (November could bring awfully cool weather)

Vince, bring some Kettle One and limes if you want to make Mud's father happy.

The old man had a few at NSJ's tailgate.

Sweet - have a bottle in the fridge unopened already. I went to Iowa, we chug beer at tailgates.

Some nice praise from our Saturday rivals

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20100901/COLUMNIST0202/9010369/2072/SPORTS