Joe, You are the same guy that said the Twins wouldn't win 93 games recently. I pointed out then, that my projections were based on a simple extrapolation of the Twins record on the season. Thats being CONSERVATIVE. The Twins are 30-11 in their last 41 games. Thats a winning percentage of .731, far greater than the .587 percentage they have on the full season. If the Twins were to just play .500 the rest of the season, they would end up with 93 wins. Even with the hot streak the Sox went on in the past 10 games, in which the Sox won 8 of 10, they gained no ground. The Twins had an identical record over their last 10. Do you really think this Twins club that has won 30/41 is going to suddenly collapse? If I was saying the Twins might continue to win at that pace (30/41) you're saying it was a fallacy, might ring true. But the expectation that the Twins would win at the rate established over their entire season, seems pretty reasonable. The expectation the Sox will overcome them....not so much. But at least they are making it interesting.

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Go Cubs!!!!

I don't have a dog in the race, but i hope the Twins collapse just so you STFU

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And I still don't think they will. Extrapolating their current record when they've played .580 baseball is hardly "conservative". But I know you're a Cub fan. I'm sure every time they start a year 1-0 you extrapolate them to an undefeated season.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

You present the argument as if Steve is extrapolating based on a 1-0 record but he's not..he's extrapolating based on a season that is 90% finished. I think that's a far greater set of data and your comparison is a bit unfair. I think based on this many games, if they're played .580 baseball it's reasonable to expect that they'll continue to do so.

I just want Hawk to completely lose it, therefore, I would like to see both teams in a 1 game playoff @ Minnesota with Joe West umping and calling a balk on the Sox to give the Twins a 9th inning Walk off.

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Obviously, it's not the same as extrapolating from a one game sample. I was commenting on the eternal optimism of the Cub fan as well as the value of his projections. We'll see soon enough if they win 93 games. I don't think they will. I don't think the White Sox will either.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

The Twins are due to cool off and I think the Sox are just starting to get hot. This is shaping up for them to be in the midst of another 25-5 stretch before this is all said and done.

Steve, if you want to look at past postseason runs and say that the Sox can't make up this relatively small defecit, just look at the 2007 Rockies. Also, look at the 2009 Twins who were 3 games behind the Tigers with only 4 to play.

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Speaking of the Rockies, they are only 5 games out of the wild card right now. Its about time for their yearly mad dash for the playoffs.

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That's my purse! I don't know you!

I love the optimism but I don't see how anyone can say the Twins are due to cool down, but a team on a 7 game win streak will heat up.

The likely scenario is both teams cool down and the Twins win this one by a couple of games in the last week.

That said, big game tonight for Freddy. He is traditionally a Tiger tamer and the Sox usually pound on Verlander. Let's hope those trends continue.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

I get what you are saying GD, but with Manny in the lineup, and the emergence of Sale and Edwin Jackson, along with the return of Thornton (and hopefully Putz) I think the Sox are in a prime position to stay hot thru the end of October

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I see. So you're a numbers guy....and his projections seem reasonable and merely based on the teams winning percentage through the majority of the season but you're questioning the 'value' of it? I'm all for bashing of Cubs optimism, but I admit he has a point.

He does have a point. And he keeps making the same goddam point after every fucking Twins game. Like for some reason, we don't get it or whatever. His past 50 posts have been the same thing "Twins are on pace to win X. To catch them, the Sox have to win Y." He's an idiot.

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I don't know if I'm a numbers guy. Numbers are what they are. It's the conclusions one draws from them that are often suspect. His numbers may be reasonable but they certainly aren't conservative. It's "conservative" numbers like that that have this country in the biggest financial crisis since the 20s.

If he were really being conservative, he'd wouldn't be expecting them to play .587 baseball in the last 24 games. Is .587 really the worst case for this Twins team with a pitching staff that may be coming apart? Is .500 its worst case? Frankly, I'd say no to both questions. But we'll see. They keep finding ways to win. Maybe they'll play .650 baseball the rest of the way.

I don't really see the value in projecting the numbers. They'll play the games and someone will win. Saying repeatedly that the team that is currently 3.5 games ahead is in the better position is simply stating the obvious and typical Elmhurst Steve.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Numbers don't lie...they just always don't tell the truth.

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WOO LIFE!!!!

The Cubs were around 8 up on the Mets in late August of 1969....after Holtzman's No-Hitter against Atlanta.....that week......
I'm sure the Probabilities Poindexters would have had the Cubs off the charts to win the Division that week.

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There goes one over the fence..Tru Link Fence..Beauty, Privacy Security....Call Tru Link.
Murph's Union 76 Truck Stop....A great Thanksgiving Tradition!!!!

WOO LIFE!!!!

They play the games for a reason. Until a team is eliminated....they ain't eliminated.
This is EARLY September for God's sake.

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There goes one over the fence..Tru Link Fence..Beauty, Privacy Security....Call Tru Link.
Murph's Union 76 Truck Stop....A great Thanksgiving Tradition!!!!

WOO LIFE!!!!

what % of Twins remaining games ared on the road?

The Twins have 24 games remaining, with an equal number (12) of games at home/away.

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Go Cubs!!!!

I'm really starting to enjoy these posts.

Thanks for being clear on what half of 24 (12) is.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

In the last 41 games, the Twins are 30-11. The twins have played 15 series' since the All-Star break (not including the series they just began with the Royals, where they won the first game) and have won 13 of the 15 and tied one with the Rays. They have only lost 1 series since the All-Star break. That was the series VS the Rangers towards the end of last month. Consider these facts/numbers and then tell me you really think the Twins are gonna fall apart, or that using their winning percentage for the full season (to date) to predict their final win total wasn't conservative.....

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Go Cubs!!!!

Thats absolutely true. there have been teams like the 1969 Mets and the Rockies of 2007, that defied the odds and made an improbable run to the playoffs and in some cases (like that 1969 Mets team) went on to win the World series. But the reason we remember those teams, is that they are so rare. Look at the Atlanta Braves...they won their division 14 years straight and each year they probably had a team (Mets/Phillies) trailing by 6-8 games with a month to go and the Braves could have been caught, if one of those other teams went on a great roll and the Brave just fell apart. But it didn't happen, so we don't have that memory. The Mets played great down the stretch in 1969, but the Cubs fell apart as well. Without both componants, that story never materializes. The Rockies went on an amazing run in 2007, ( winning 14 of their final 15 regular season games) to catch the Padres and beat them 9-8 in their wildcard tiebreaker. However, part of the story, was San Diego losing 6 of their final 10 regular season games. Without the Padres losing as they did, the Rockies never make the post-season. With the Twins having won 30 of their last 41 games, do you really expect them to collapse and allow such a story to unfold? It takes both teams playing a part for it to happen.... Expecting it to happen, is expecting something that is highly improbable.

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Go Cubs!!!!

While you may be right on one count (using their full season to predict their final win total), you don't seem to be considering the fact that in their last 41, they're 30-11. That's a .731 win %....way above their win % and is not likely to continue.

Bagels-I don't anticipate the Twins winning at the rate they have in their last 10 games (.800) or over the past 41 games (.731) thats unrealistic. Thats why the numbers I use to estimate their final win total has always been their entire season to date. I think thats the most fair way to estimate. However, it would not be unreasonable to believe they may well exceed my estimated win total in light of their record since the All-Star break being far better than prior to the break. But my estimates were always based upon the whole season to date, and no "hot streak" was ever factored into it.

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Do you care to address this point steviepoo?


Or better yet, what were the Tigers on pace to win with 4 games left in 2009?

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Since were delving deep into numbers here


If the Sox get swept by the Twins theyll lose 3 games
If the sox win 1 of 3 against the Twins...theyll lose 1 game
If the Sox win 2 of 3 against the Twins...Theyll gain 1 game
If the Sox sweep the Twins...theyll gain 3 games



Also, 162 games on the schedule. Sox have played roughly 137 games which leaves approximately 25 games on the schedule.


Unless there's a playin game. Then they play 163, in which case the above numbers would need a slight adjustment

^^ I can't tell if there's sarcasm there, but this is all pretty basic stuff.

No reason for asshats to post the same rehashing of pedestrian math after every fucking game, in multiple threads.

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1926-1931-1934-1942-1944-1946-1964-1967-1982-2006-2011

Sure...it's another situation that people will long remember, because it was another rare case where 2 teams do exactly what is required for the improbable to happen. It took one team (Twins) playing very well, while the other (Tigers) had to collapse. If you really expect a team like the Twins that has won 30/41 and lost just 1 series since the All-Star break to cooperate in a scenario like that one, I think you are fooling yourself.

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Go Cubs!!!!

Sorry I thought it was pretty obviously Sarcasm

I don't believe those numbers until I see them in a Brand post. Multiple times. In multiple threads.

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Well, that certainly puts a different spin on things. It looks like the more games they win the better.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!