4-0 in week 1

Dallas-Chicago under 41, 1*
Two teams starting the season as "under" teams with Ds that are much better than their Os. Both are in the bottom 5 in the league for offensive lines right now. Columbo's return for Dall makes them only marginally better. I'm not fooled by Bears' O stats vs woeful Lions D. That performance gives us value in this number. But there is a big difference between Dall D and the Lions. I make this # 37.5 and think it closes 39, which is why I am betting it today.

Looks likes another season of cat and mouse with the books. I bet that under at 2 books an hour ago and they immediately shaved the line a half. Books are again moving on flagged accounts, rather than broad market $. I know I'm flagged on college hoops totals, but NFL? GMAFB.

Last Week 4-6-1
Overall 4-6-1

Bears +9 at Dallas W
Packers -13.5 against Bills W
Eagles -3 at Lions PUSH
Dolphins +5.5 at Vikings W
Texans -2.5 at Redskins W
Colts -5.5 against Giants W

Saints -4.5 at 49ers L

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Washington +3 vs. Houston, 1*
Going back to the well with the Skins as a home dog. Houston has to get a lot of public love this week after flying over public darling Indy at home. Yes that was a huge win for the Texans, but maybe just maybe Indy is really going to be bad on defense this year. This line says Houston is 6 pts. better than the Skins in power ratings. Not in my world. I take value as I find it and here we have value to a team that Joe Public considers as ugly home dog vs. a team that Joe Public now thinks must be really good cause they beat Indy. Since when should Houston be laying a field goal on the road? Old saws for NFL betting: 1) Never believe what you saw last week will carry over this week. 2) Perception does not equal reality.

I will probably have another 1-4 plays this week. If you are interested in seeing my NFL power ratings, or my lines for the week (adding 3 points to the home team power rating) you can find them here:

http://www.mediafire.com/?kck6lkki4m8bt

Chiefs +2
Packers -13.5
Bengals +1.5
Patriots -3
Texans -2.5

_________________
Fuck Edwards and Zobrist

Chicago (+9)
Indianapolos (-6)

I haven't seen a +9 on the Bears in 3 days. I want your book Sportsfreak. Any book that is that slow to move their lines is a book worth having in one's stable.

Parlay cards - they come out on Tuesday and have to be in by Saturday morning.

Vikings -5 1/2 vs. Miami, 1*

Best line value of the week, by my numbers. I am seeing signs some sharps might come in on Vikings, so I will buy now before it moves to 6. Superior Vikings run defense against a Miami O that relies on Brown and Ricky the pothead to move the ball. Favre is old but he now has had 10 more days of practice since the Saints game to catch up to where he should have been had he been in camp on time. Dolphins have injuries in their defensive line and at linebacker and their secondary is young and shaky. The Vikings defense shut down the Saints for most of that game. Henne was bad in preseason and mostly bad vs. Buffalo. I don't think he's going to be able to get the job done when the Fins run game invariably runs in neutral. Vikings come home after a loss, Dolphins on 2nd straight road game.

Minnesota-Miami under 41, 1*
Both teams have solid defenses...no make that one team has a top tier defense and the other is solid. I really don't see Miami doing much in this game (which is why I took Minny). And while Minnesota surely will score more than the 9 they put up against Nawlins, it isn't like we can expect Favre to throw for 350 yards and 4 TDs. 23-10.

A few other games I might play today if lines move. One I'm considering is Dallas at -7 or -6.5. I can get -7, -15 now, but think we might see better. Money coming in on Bears all week, but doubt books will post a 6.5 to reduce their exposure to middles. But we'll see. Since I make the number 10, I'll lay 6.5 if offered. Bettors way overhyped over one win vs. the worst team in the league and one Dallas loss. I think we will be reminded today just how bad the Bears OL (and perhaps secondary) are on this team.

Dallas -7, +100, 1*
Fading the Bears and the 2 pt. move. I thought 9 was a pretty good number so 7 is a take.

6 pt. Teaser Dallas -1 / Tennessee pick, 1* -110

NY Giants +5, -110
Indy D showed serious deficiencies in run D last week and the Giants running game surely can exploit them. A little value at this number and even so, if last week's performance is a fair measure, then I have Indy too high and Giants too low.

Week 5-1-1
Overall 9-7-2

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.