Last Week 4-5
Overall 10-14-1

Nevada +3.5 against Cal W

Arkansas +2.5 at Georgia W
Kansas State -5.5 against Iowa State W
Illinois -7.5 against Northern Illinois L
Alabama -23 at Duke W
Hawaii +10 at Colorado L
Oregon State -17 against Louisville L
Oklahoma -18.5 against Air Force L
Navy -4 at Louisiana Tech W
Rice +7 against Northwestern L
LSU -8.5 against Mississippi State W
Notre Dame +3 at Michigan State PUSH
Iowa -1.5 at Arizona L

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Last week: 3-0, YTD: 3-2

So. Miss-Kansas over 49, 1*
I make this number 53, so it's a play at 50 or less.

Northwestern-Rice over 52, 2**
I make this number 58 so clearly I see these teams differently than the linesmaker. That makes this a play for me at 55 or less and a double shot at 52.

There are 48's available.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Thanks Chus. Yes, I know there are better prices availalble and I did get 48, but the lines I post are those that are widely available, not the best price available. I want to post numbers that anybody can play when I post them and often times bettors will be able to do better. It may cost me on my record, but I just don't believe in posting lines that are not widely available.

3 of the 4 major books that have posted a total are at 48. TheGreek is at 49, while bookmaker, 5dimes, and betphoenix are at 48. It seems that 48 is the widely available number.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

ok. no matter. people can get 48 all the better. there is a head fake going on here though. i have a good idea one group is betting it the wrong way to move it down and then will come over the top hard. look for a move up tomorrow or thurs when all the off screens open.

CRiS moves
09/14 02:25:15pm   #103 Kansas 51 OPENER
09/14 02:25:38pm   #103 Kansas 50½  
09/14 02:49:10pm   #103 Kansas 49  
09/14 02:49:31pm   #103 Kansas 48  
09/14 02:51:18pm   #103 Kansas 48½  
09/14 02:55:05pm   #103 Kansas 48  
 
 
Good stuff.  Somebody wants it at 48 real bad, when everybody else opens.

2010: 4-4-2 -0.35

North Carolina State -1.5 (-102)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

7-1 to date

Northwestern -7
Cal -3.5
Colorado -10
Sparty -3

_________________

Nice to see my numbers agreeing with some of the guys that have large followings that move lines. I knew the KU move down was a setup and said so and figured the NW total would get some action too. Sure enough. Good to know because that will help me predict line moves. Both my totals moved as Fezzik and Right Angle both gave out KU over and Fezzik gave out Northwestern over. If you bought the totals I gave out earlier this week, you now have 51.5 and 54.5 if you want a 3.5 and 2.5 pt. middles.

Most people think being a winner at sports gambling is all about picking winners. I think that may be 50% or less in importance to becoming a long-term, consistent winner. Buying at good numbers, predicting line moves and beating the closing line are pretty damn important too. For example, if you bought my totals earlier this week at the best prices available when I posted, you could now set up two middles with a 20/1 payoff for the risk of juice . There are tougher ways to make a living. Hit just one of those middles every now and then and your ROI gets a nice boost...far more than most people will ever produce the conventional way.

I will try to keep pointing out lines I expect to move early in the week. Sometimes I'll be wrong and you might get stuck with a bad number. But most of the time, you'll have a shot at some decent middles.

I don't understand middles...can someone explain that to me?

Thanks!

A middle is when you take the over at 48 for example, and then when the total rises to 54, you also bet under, so you have a 6 point middle to hit both bets.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

And the worst you can do is lose your juice. So game ends at 47 or less or 55 and up, you win one, lose one. If it lands on a number (48 or 54), you win 1 unit, end up 49,50,51,52,53 you win 2 units.

That makes sense - thanks Chus and Hawkeye...

Auburn - (-6)
Oaklahoma - (-19)

This guy from Atlantic City called me and told me to make these plays - I paid money once to one of these 800 numbers now they call me every day.

195 Indiana-Western Kentucky over 61, 1*
Two bad defenses and respectable offenses. IU offense should be able to kick into a higher gear with their top receiver Doss back. WKU gives up yards and points in bunches, but can run the ball with Rainey. Hoosiers can put up points against bad teams. They get a good chance here as WKU is perhaps the worst D in the nation. I make this 66. It's an added board game, so the number has quietly sat there all week.

Mississippi State +7.5 @ LSU, 1*
Two top 15, if not top 10 defenses. Going to be low scoring...was very tempted to take under here. Dogs outplayed the Bengals last year and the pressure D of MSU might cause Jefferson the usual difficulties. In fact, LSU appears to be uncertain who exactly to play at quarterback. But then what else is new for the clueless Les Miles. Miles is usually good for a few bonehead calls during a game and that might just be enough to give the Dogs a shot to win this one outright.

Hawaii +12.5 @ Colorado, 1*
Ok I'm a sucker. Sharps apparently like the Buffaloes as they've bet this up from 10.5, but Colo hasn't shown me squat to lead me to believe they can cover this number. Colo lost 52-7 last week to a Cal team that was whacked last night at Nevada. I am not over-reacting to last week or using comparative games to try to measure these teams...what sticks out to me is that any team that loses by 45 one week is a tough take laying double digits the next. Rainbows have an offense that always leaves the back door open.

2010: 4-4-2 -0.35

North Carolina State -1.5 (-102)
Hawaii +14 (-110)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

PS. I will be on Iowa today. Just waiting to buy it at the apex. Is that +1.5 or +2 or even more? As people lose their bets today in the historically tough week 3 of the college season, will they bet more on the late game tonight? The money is flowing one way and since I'm going against the flow, I'll wait until later today/tonight. All the technical players love Zona today because the Hawkeyes don't win west of the Rockies, Ferentz has poor ATS in non-conference,Stoops is great in revenge (Iowa dominated Zona last year), blah blah blah blah blah. All the touts are lining up on Zona because of the technical factors. You know what that means.

Kentucky-Akron over 53, 1*
Akron let Gardner Webb score 38 on them last week (38-37). Zips have a little zip but Kentucky is the kind of team that loves to run it up on bad teams...because once they get into the SEC, their opponents will be running it up on them. If the gardener can score 38 on the zips, maybe big blue can hit 53 by themselves against the defenseless zips.

Wouldn't the ML be a better play than getting 1.5 or 2 ?

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Yes if you can get +115 or better when the line is +2. Most books are now dealing +110, but MB has a few grand at +117-119, but maybe there will be more to eat there later. I don't want to take that all out too early and move those market prices down quite yet.

betphoenix +115
5dimes +115 (+120 w/ reduced)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Thanks Chus. I see those on my screen, but don't have accounts there. i appreciate it though.

Last play today, besides the Iowa bet:

Wake Forest +17.5 @ Stanford
Tree was impressive to be sure last week, but they are in a UCLA/Notre Dame sandwich and these guys aren't exactly accustomed to playing the role of prohibitive favorite. Wake scored 50 in each of their first two games so have to believe back door is wide open. The techies will say Stanford is the play because the game is kicking off at 11 pm on the Wake kids' body clocks. That's all well and good, but Wake doesn't really have to even stay in the game to cover 17.5. Maybe they can sleepwalk their way to a 13 point loss.

Iowa ML +120
Took out the 122, 120, 119 and 117s at MB. Waiting has its rewards. Go Hawks.

You made 4 separate bets on Iowa to win?

memo 2 self: do not tail C2C.

That is not a good long term strategy.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Gotta take the good with the bad. C2C had a bad day, but Im sure he will rebound quite nicely. Im hoping today as a matter of fact!!

_________________

6-6-1
16-20-1

I got dicked over by an NIU 48 yard field goal with 18 seconds left. So let me get this thinking: kick the 48 yard field goal with 18 seconds left in order to get an onside kick that will result in the need for a longer hail mary than the 30 yarder you would have to throw on 4th down.

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.