College Foots
Last week: 1-7
YTD: 4-9, -6.8

Stanford -4, -120 @ Notre Dame, 1*
I missed the opener at 3 and 3.5, but think 4 is still fine as I make this number between 8.5 and 11, depending on the various rating method used. Notre Dame love has the oddsmakers over-valuing them, but the early sharp money has spotted the value and is pounding Stanford. Situationally, this looks like a really bad spot for the Irish. College teams often are flat as pancakes the week after a very tough loss (see Virginia Tech vs. Jimmy Madison a few weeks ago). Does it get any tougher than the way the Irish lost on a fake FG in OT? Coach Kelly looks like his child died or something after that game. Sometimes it takes a while to get out of an emotional depression like ND is likely feeling this week. I went against Stanford on Saturday night and I still have the scorch marks to show for it. They scored on each of their first eight possessions. Teams that do that against air are special, let alone against a mid-level ACC team. To quote Prez Bush Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice I won't get fooled again. The Tree is for real. Looks like a special year on the farm. Blanking UCLA and scoring 60+ just doesn't happen in Palo Alto very often. Stanford is rolling and has to be coming into South Bend sky high. Situationally, Notre Dame is a mess. Fundamentally, Stanford is better. A LOT better. Even with ND money surely to come in late in the week, it won't surprise me if this is 6 by kickoff.

You can count on one hand the number of times I will take a road favorite all season. This is #1. There might not even be a 2nd one. So this is a very rare road chalk bet. But I think the power ratings/value, situation and fundamentals support it.

Coast laying more than a FG on the road? Now, I have seen everything.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Last Week 6-6-1
Overall 16-20-2

Pitt +3 against Miami L

SMU +18.5 against TCU W

Georgia +1 at Mississippi State L
Alabama -7 at Arkansas L
Arizona -6.5 against Cal L
South Carolina +3 at Auburn L
NIU +4 at Minnesota W
Oregon -11 at ASU PUSH

2-5-1
18-25-3

This is not going well.

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

2010: 5-5-2 -0.45

North Carolina State +8 (-104)
Houston -20 (+102)
Alabama -7 (-103)
Stanford -4.5 (-105)
California/Arizona under 57 (-105)

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Army +7, -120 @ Duke
Two of my favorite angles converge on this play. 1) Take a dog that is expected to rush for decidedly more yards. Last year, Army outgained Duke by 150 yds, but 2 INTs taken back for TDs gave Duke that W. Fundamentally, Army should run pretty well on Duke, while Duke's passing game should find at least a little resistance. Army'a pass D is respectable, considering they held their own with Hawaii. 2) Go against a soft favorite. Duke probably won't have a winning season, putting them in the very rare spot of being a 7 pt favorite. WHen a team doesn't even win half their games, winning and covering decisively isn't something they are used to doing. They'll be thrilled with any old kind of W and Cutcliffe often gets conservative and sits on leads late (on those rare occasions when he has one). That makes them very soft as a 7 pt. chalk.

2010: 5-5-2 -0.45

North Carolina State +8 (-104)
Houston -20 (+102)
Alabama -7 (-103)
Stanford -4.5 (-105)
California/Arizona under 57 (-105)
Bowling Green +24.5 (+104)
Bowling Green/Michigan over 58 (+134)
Temple +14 (-108)
Army +7 (-120)
Southern Mississippi -3.5 (-101)
San Diego State -8.5 (-105)


Until I see Michigan stop somebody, I will take more than 3 td's every time. Coast beat me to the punch on Army. I have had them circled all week, just waited for line moves. I hate taking this many favorites, but it is what it is. You take value where you see it.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Michigan-Bowling Green OVER 56
I agree with Chus that until we see Mich. stop somebody, we have to look at the other side. Or the over. BG has given up 30,33 and 28 points vs. Troy, Tulsa and Marshall. Michigan's run game with Robinson is in a whole other class.

Boston College +4 vs. Va. Tech
Home dog Eagles with week off to prepare for Hokies. VT seems to be down more than a little this year on defense, considering what East Carolina and even Jimmy Madison did to them. BC is a 4 pt. home dog, but I expect them to beat VT in passing yards, rushing yards...and even on the scoreboard.

I just grabbed some over 58 at +134 at matchbook, there is still some left

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

3-8

time to get back in

UNLV -9

this UNLV team has got to finally rise to the occasion eventually, ill take them here in the battle of the MWC defeated (both 0-3 and 0-1) the pastings that oregon, utah and texas tech gave NM will motivate the lobo to take another thrashing. The UNLV loss to Idaho is more indicative of their lack of motivation by allowing the vandal to score on the first three drives and becoming a unmotivated lot from then on (didnt get on the board until late). Talent wins games and UNLV is a more talented squad, dont go nuts on this one [3-8 ytd and I suck in general], but Ill take the rebel to right the vessel here.

Another factor is revenge. Duke tacked on a meaningless late score to go up 35-19 last year. Don't think the Cadets have forgotten.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

CHA-CHING

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Nice job Chus. That's the way to use Matchbook to your advantage!

Anybody who plays online, should have an account at matchbook.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

3-0 midway through the second quarter. This is setting up nicely for a huge middle.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

9/25: 7-4 +3.3
2010: 12-9-2 +2.85

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way