This weekly wagering contest will reward the best football prognosticator with a $100 gift certificate from a steak company. New guys can still join in any time and you don't have to make a pick every week. You can post your plays any time, but they must be posted before a game you are playing kicks off. You must make your picks in this thread and you must provide at least one reason for each pick.

The winner will the guy with the best record after the NFL regular season and college bowl games are concluded (last game is Natl. Championship game). You must have at least 50 picks by January 9 to win
the prize. Please use and post the prevailing lines at the time of your picks from one of the two largest offshore casinos: thegreek.com or pinnaclesports.com. Post your NFL picks here and your college bowl
picks in the college bowl thread.

Overall, the board had its best week of the season, going 45-26 (63%). The overall board record for the season is now 52% at 491-454-29.

................................Last Week....................Season............................%
Not in the Biz................0-0..............................8-3................................73
Nas...............................5-3............................21-13..............................62
Hawkeye Vince.............2-0............................36-25..............................59
Mr. Belvidere................0-0............................10-7................................59
the gooch.....................4-0............................26-19-1...........................58
Matt Murton’s Beard.....2-0............................22-18-1...........................55
Chus.............................6-2............................83-68-5...........................55
donspiracy...................0-0............................61-51-2...........................54
Coast...........................4-2............................72-61-5...........................54
Woodridge Ryan...........3-1............................7-6................................54
Doug............................0-0..............................8-7-2.............................53
Rocks and Blows...........3-2...........................27-27-3...........................50
Good dolphin.................5-3...........................40-41-1...........................49
Mitch Cumstein.............0-0............................27-28..............................49
Bud Dude.....................3-5............................51-53-5...........................49
reents...........................5-2...........................70-86-5...........................45
sabu.............................4-3...........................24-33-1...........................42
BD.................................0-3.............................3-10..............................23

Nas - welcome back to earth.

Coast, I was 3-1. I think you missed my pick for the Steelers game.

You listened to me? Huh? what day is this? We need to make a note of this.

Yes...you were 13-3 over "there".

should I just be printing out Nas's predictions on Friday morning and high tailing it straight to Vegas? jeesh.

_________________
"Stay out of courtrooms-but if you must go in be Well Armed and Don't compromise. You are innocent, remember that. They are guilty" -- Dr. Gonzo

Nas, was that just picking games or against the spread. 13-3 isn't that big of a deal to pick straight up. It's good, but its not going to get you anywhere in Vegas. That's what makes this contest tough.

13-3 against the spread...OK, you have my attention!

Pittsburgh -2.5
Pitt has played better as of late. Carolina has injuries on both sides of the ball, and Weinke as their QB. Willie Parker should have no problem running on a weak D, opening things up for Big Ben, who despite having the worst year in his career, is still putting up decent numbers. This number will probably climb before kickoff.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Cowboys -3 at Atlanta

I was all over the Saints last week to beat a phenomenally overrated Cowboy team. I like to take those types of teams the week after a loss as popular opinion wildly shifts. Atlanta is doing it with smoke and mirrors. They give up more points then they score. They are injured everywhere on defense and in the O backfield. Romo has fallen back to earth the past couple of weeks and I think he gets well here. Look for him to be efficient with the bulk of the load being carried by the able Jones and Barber.

49ers +10 at Seattle

Is there any reason to believe Seattle is +10 against anyone. I know Alex Smith has been returning to suckage, but this is going to be a game that is won on the ground. Gore is Alexander's equal. I LOVE the 10.

Vikings -3 versus Jets
UNDER 41

The Vikings are playing well again. I love them in the dome in December. It seemed they always make a push at the end and this time it is for a playoff spot. Taylor comes back from a rib injury with a vengence against a poor rushing D. I don't think it will take many points to win this one and I think Minny is up to the challenge. An average Jets O is going to be lost in this intimidating location. They will not be able to run and passing gets difficult with the noise.

Miami +1 at Buffalo

This is the second year in a row Saban has his boys playing hard after a horrible start. Much like the Steelers last year, Miami has been great since they beat the Bears. Buffalo has been playing well also but they do not have the same horses on D as Miami. I think Miami will be able to run and they will grind this one out in a low scoring affair.

Philly +5.5 at NYG

Philly has been without Mc Nabb for several weeks now, and they are playing strong against playoff caliber opponents. I see no reason to think it is an aberration. I would not be so bold as to call for an upset here. However I think this is a classic 3 point game.

Arizon +2.5 versus Denver

I smelled a trap last week and knowingly fell into it. Not this week. As I have said before Denver is a dead team that does not know it yet. Shanahan torpedoed the season by bringing in Cutler, who has shown nothing. Now Denver's D is starting to show some holes. I say they bake in the Arizona heat and Edgerrin James actually will average 4 ypc for once this year.

Rams +2.5 at Oakland

This one seems like a trap as well...but I will once again fall into it. Suprisingly enough, Oakland's D is overrated. And now they are injured in the defensive secondary. Bulger is the type of QB who eats a team alive if he is not pressured. I don't think Oakland has the ability to put the pressure on.

Cincinnatti +3 at Indy

I am shocked this line is not smaller. These are two teams going in different directions. Indy is in the throes of it typical late season swoon. Cincy has been on fire on BOTH ends of the ball. The Bengals can do it with both the run and the pass. Indy will be selling out trying to stop the run after several weeks of horrible D. Palmer will carve up the secondary with one of the deepest WR groups in the league.

I am gonna take a couple of team totals this week:

Chicago over 23
Tampa has quit. If the Beloved can continue running well, they will have no problem scoring 23 on the Buc.

St. Louis over 18
The Ram put up good numbers against the best D in the league, granted some of it came in garbage time. I think the Raiders, too, have quit and the Rams have the weapons to score at will.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

49ers +10 vs Seahawks-I know the 49ers are to starting to lose lately, but they have played well in most of their games and the Seahawks aren't exactly blowing everybody out so I like the 49ers.

San Francisco @ Seattle OVER 40.5
San Francisco has been giving up points in bunches (28 a game in the last 3). Seattle will be without Darrell Jackson, but is still scoring 26 a game for the last 3.

Nas is smokin. He was 13-3 against the spread last week picking every game in the NFL in another little spread confidence pool contest we have. Last week was a good one for almost everyone though.
Week before that he was 8-8.
Week before that he was 12-4.
Week before that he was 10-5-1.

That is 43-20 ATS (68%) in the NFL in the last month. In the ten weeks before that, Nas was 69-69, which makes his season total 112-89 picking every NFL game. I'm 11 games behind him at 101-100.

Thurs. Night Special

Seattle -10
Seahawks at home, just as Hasslebeck is getting back into game shape/speed. Coupled with a strong running game and bad bad weather predicted in Seattle tomorrow night, gotta love the hawks with homefield on this one


Over 40.5

Bad weather predicted, I see the total hovering right around this total but a strong scoring threat like Vernon Davis gets SF on the board for 13 points to put it 2 points past the over.

San Francisco @ Seattle over 38.5
As expected, the bad weather has caused the public to pound the under. I will go away from the public and take the over. Hucklebuck and Alexander are healthy and will have no problem scoring on a suspect 49ers D. Leaning towards taking the Seachickens if the number drops to 9 1/2 .

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

[a

Glad I stayed away from last night's game...yikes.

Bears -13.5 vs. Bucs- The bucs offense won't do anything against the bears defense while the Bears offense is highly explosive and will score at least 21

Bears vs. Bucs over 34 again the bears offense is very explosive and the bucs schould score more than 7.

Saints -9.5 vs. Redskins- The saints have the best offense in football while the Redskins are one of the worst teams in the NFL.

_________________
"Do work, son" -Big Black

Green Bay -5
The Lions are awful and are now without their biggest offensive threat, Kevin Jones. Favre owns the Lions, especially in Green Bay, where the Lions haven't won since 1991. How motivated is this Detroit team, to get up for a road game in December when their season has been over since September?

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

greek 4:15 Friday

Chicago -13.5 over Tampa

Usually like to wait until game day but can only see this one going up so takin at 13.5. Even with the Bears missing some key players on D this week they should be alright. Tampa cant score especially on the road. As long as bad Rex doesnt show up and give Tampa short fields this one should be a 20+ pt Bear win.

Philadelphia +5.5
The Giants are banged up on both sides of the ball. Garcia has been solid and still has a pretty good group of wideouts, to go along with Westbrook. Eli is very inconsistent. The Eagles are looking for revenge, after blowing a huge 4th quarter lead, and eventually losing in OT to the Giants.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

trying to get over 50 percent



Dallas -3' @ Atlanta- This is more a bet on the faltering D of both teams than unmitigated support for Dallas. Dallas should keep it close though so Ill lay the 3. [EDITED] My bad, I misread an extended odds line from the greek when I originally submitted. Mea culpa, bitches

JEts +3' @ vikes- Jets should pull this one out, Vikes are overrated, jets are hungry.

Radskins +9' @ New Orleans- Ill take the points on this one big time. New Orleans does not like to tackle people. Washington gettin almost double digits, tell me this line would have been before the season/

Bears -13 v. Tampa- Ill lay the points and take the Bear to spank Tampa. Gradowski better get ready to get whipped.

Eagles +5' @ Giants- Ill take the points on the road team on this one, Id like 6 but Ill live with the 5'. Garcia appears to be capable in moving the eagle down the field.

Denver -2' @ Arizona- I think that even Cutler cant mess this one up. Ill take Denver

Dallas is -3.5, not +7.5

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Falcons +3.5 vs Cowboys- It sounds like Vick will have to lead the Falcons to a win without the top 2 running backs, I think he can, and Romo is struggling lately. Also, the Falcons get help with injured players coming back.

New England -11
Since 2002, The Pats are 11-1 ATS after a loss. Now, that is a trend! Houston really has nothing to play for, and getting up for a cold, road game when the season is over seems unlikely. Brady gets back on track, and the Pats roll.

St. Louis +3
This really looks like a trap. But, how can you lay points with the Raiders, the worst team this side of Motown? Moss is likely out. Porter and Jordan are gone. I don't think a John Shoop led team can beat anyone by three, especially a good offense.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Oakland -2-1/2 vs. St. Louis (Greek)
This is the first of my mostly contrarian picks this weekend. Getting this before it moves to 3. Raiders have a defense to somewhat contain Rams and Raiders offense might actually be successful against a pretty pitiful Rams defense. In recent weeks, Raiders have played much better defenses, which perhaps disguises how they might do against a bad D.

PS...the last time I saw this much love for the Bears was when they played at Arizona. I may feel contrarian this weekend, but I'm still not inclined to bet Tampa. however, I'd like to at least see somebody somewhere who does like the Bucs +. With all the one-sided Bears love, it seems to me the oddsmakers could make this line 17 and still get one-sided action. But they're not. Things that make you go hmmmmmm. I'm not sayin, I'm just sayin.

Dallas vs. Atlanta Under 44.5

Atlanta is without their top two backs and have gone under in 6 stariaht and against some bad teams. For Romo to bounce back on road I look for the Boy's to keep it conservative.

TENN +3.5

Jax has been brutal on the road plus lots of injuries now and Young is 8-1 ATS as a starter

ARIZONA +3[b]

I like another home dog, mostly because I've passed on way to many this year. But, Cards O-Line has looked good and Cards are 4-0 ATS last 4 and have been scoring lots of points whilel the Denver D has been broken and they are a dead team.


[b]PACKERS -5.5

Packers have sucked at home this year but Lions are 1-5 ATS this year on the road and their O-Line is brutal. Favre has been decent against god awful D's and Pack have 15 staraight against the Lions in Green Bay

CHEIFS +9

Chargers haven't played all that well at home after big wins and Cheifs are desperate for a win.and I like LJ to get lots of carries and KC to control the clock keeping it close.[/b]

The greek 5:25 PM Sat

Atlanta +4, getting points at home they will bounce back, Romo another sub par performance as reality and game tape set in

Tampa Bay +13.5 Nothing to do with any of the Tank BS, well a little, with nearly 1/3 of the original defense on the shelf and a suspect Grossman I am thinking this game will be semi close

Bills -1 Dolphins have been playing well but they notoriously suck in the New York, New England area. Ronnie Brown still out

Jets +3.5 If this was 2.5 I would never do this, think it will be a close game with two desperate mediocre teams so I can see this game being decided by a field goal. Look for Laverneas to go nuts in the dome against the non existant Vikings pass defense.

Carolina +3 Can't pass this up, Carolina getting points at home, they have under-achieved big time this year but I don't see them losing to the Steelers who don't have anything to play for. Weinke is good enough to win by a narrow margin.

_________________
"Stay out of courtrooms-but if you must go in be Well Armed and Don't compromise. You are innocent, remember that. They are guilty" -- Dr. Gonzo

Atlanta +4
Teams have adjusted to Romo, and he is no longer unstoppable. The Falcon's playoff lives are on the line, and I think they will respond at home.

Kansas City +9 and under 46.5
The Chiefs D is much better than in recent years. The best chance to win is to keep LT off of the field. A healthy dose of LJ will do.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Jets +3.5 vs Vikings- It sounds crazy, but both teams have a playoff shot, with the JEts coming off a loss and going to Miami next week they need this one, but if the Vikings win it will only be by a field goal.

Ravens -11.5 vs Browns- The Ravens win here, I think locks up the divison and I know the Browns have played tough most of the year, but the Ravens should take this one by at least 2 touchdowns behind their defense.

Steelers -3 vs Panthers- I think the Panthers have just about quit on their season and with Weinke starting now, I just see the Steelers taking this one and it may be a blowout, by mostly running the ball.

TItans +3.5 vs Jaguars- This game will probably go 2 ways, a Jaguars blowout or a Titans field goal win, I'll take the latter with Vince Young leading the Titans.

Bears-13.5 vs Buccanneers- You can stick a fork in the Bucs, Grossman get's the critics off his back for another week, because the Bears should dominate and make it look like the 49ers game.

Broncos -2.5 vs Cardinals- I don't think the Broncos have thrown it in yet, we'll know at halftime and I think Cutler turned it around in the second half last week and the Broncos D gets back to early season form.

Rams +3 vs Raiders- I know the Raiders have played well lately, but the Raiders may be without Porter and Moss, and the Rams run the ball should get this one.