I saw this and it blew me away. From espn.com (Elias)

• Ben Gordon scored 41 points in the Bulls' loss, six days after scoring 40 points against the Heat. What's the big deal, you wonder? Gordon didn't start either game. Over the last 30 seasons, only one other player, Brian Winters, recorded at least two 40-point games off the bench over his entire career. Gordon has done it twice in a week

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"Tubby? Oh yes, Tubby."

That's a nice accomplishment, but Gordon plays starter's minutes, so the stat is a little deceptive.

Gordon has been really impressive recently. Phoenix couldn't guard him last night. He was scoring from all over the floor, displaying nice outside shooting, a smooth stop-an-pop mid-range game, and explosiveness in driving to the hoop. And his defense has been improving.

I really like Gordon as a scoring point guard, and think a Gordon-Sefolosha backcourt has a lot more potential than any guard combination involving Kirk Hinrich.

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They can't really guard anybody.

He averages about 29 minutes a game...most of the big time scorers in the league average in the high 30s. I think he's 4th in the east in points per 48 minutes. That's not too bad.

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"Tubby? Oh yes, Tubby."

He played 37 minutes last night, so it makes sense that his scoring was up. I think this trend will continue if Skiles continues to extend his floor time. I don't agree with Skiles' habit of benching Gordon when he starts slow offensively or defensively.



Even though they give up around 110 points/game, I'd say they're actually better defensively than most teams in the East. They obviously play a fast-tempo game, so that means more offensive possessions and more scoring all the way around. Did you see the game last night? Phoenix put everybody on Gordon. They were double-teaming him, face guarding, bumping him around, and he still found his shots. Impressive stuff. That was a big-time NBA game, and Gordon had the look of a player emerging as a legitimate go-to guy. We'll see if he can keep it up--or if Skiles screws things up by taking the ball out of his hands when Hinrich comes back. Hinrich's absence has been very good for Gordon, and for the team more generally.

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Especially Duhon. It used to seem like he was the de facto starter just to bring Gordon off the bench. Now, he'emerged as a legitimate NBA starting point guard. He makes Kirk expendable if they decide they want to make a run at Garnett.

I agree that Gordon was just gross last night. They were throwing everybody at him.

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"Tubby? Oh yes, Tubby."

Yes, Duhon is a solid all-around player, much better than I thought he was going to be based on his last couple of years at Duke.

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Duhon is a ton better than I expected him to be (I actually threw up my hands in disgust when they drafted him 3 years ago), but ultimately his upside is inferior to that of Hinrich, Gordon, and Thabo. As much as I like Du, I think a time will come when his presence begins to hurt the development of Thabo. Typically, the 4th guard in an NBA rotation plays about 6-12 minutes a night. That’s not enough for Du or Thabo; it’s more appropriate for Griffin. Granted, Thabo gets a few minutes at the 3 when they run a small lineup, but with Deng, Noce, and Tyrus around, those minutes come sparingly. Fortunately, the Bulls’ hands are not forced from a personnel standpoint. They have Duhon on the cheap for the next year and a half. They can keep him and be patient with Sefolosha, or they could move him as part of a package, while throwing Thabo into the deep end to expedite his growth.

I think, by the 2nd half of this season, we're going to see Thabo/Hinrich as the starting backcourt - that doesn't mean that Thabo will play 30 minutes a night - it's probably a game to game thing for his minutes as Skiles will keep him out there as long as he produces, but Duhon is/should be a bench player. Gordon is just so good in that 6th man role, just keep him there...

BD, I didn’t mean to suggest that you alter Gordon’s role. What I’m saying is that 96 minutes isn’t enough to cover Hinrich, Gordon, Thabo, & Duhon. I realize Sefolosha is still raw, but a time will come when he deserves 2 quarters worth of game time, and ultimately more like 3 quarters. Under the current landscape, that’s an impossibility, and will continue to be so until the 2008-09 season when Duhon is a free agent. Do you really expect Thabo, based on what he’s shown us thus far, to continue getting 10-12 minutes a night for the next year and a half? Personally, I think he’s much better than that and I’d be shocked if Pax & Skiles were stubborn enough to retard the development of a lottery pick.

I agree with your assessment - Duhon's going to be the odd man out, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's eventually moved with P.J. Brown for an inside scorer. Thabo's going to be the starting two guard here, he's really been showing some good ability, and Gordon's role is absolutely perfect for his scoring ability.

I understand that Kirk is a better player and has a little higher upside than Duhon. However, I don't think the disparity is THAT great, especially considering the difference in their salaries. I would MUCH rather have Du at $3M per than Hinrich at $10M. Plus, Hinrich has a higher trade value than Duhon.

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"Tubby? Oh yes, Tubby."

I just don't see Paxson ever trading Kirk. Maybe I'm a fool, but they've always said Kirk is the guy they want to build around and he's the 'face' of the organization. I just don't see them moving Kirk.

Scott,

Duhon is only at $3 mil for one more season. If he’s your starting PG of the future, you can expect him to get more like $6 mil on his next deal. Also, FYI, Hinrich’s contract is heavily front-loaded. He makes much less on the back end. In a few years, he’ll be one of the more underpaid players in the league. As BD mentioned above, you’re probably better off packaging Duhon with expiring contracts like PJ Brown and Mike Sweetney to land a big man. There’s nothing wrong with keeping him necessarily, but you can only fit so many guys into your rotation. Most teams run an 8 or 9 man rotation, and rarely does that include 4 guards playing serious minutes. The real question is, do you use your expiring contracts like Brown & Sweetney to go after a veteran big man this season, or do you hold out and plan on next year’s lottery pick being the 2nd big man in the rotation? Due to their insane amount of depth on this year’s squad, it’s my contention that you thin out a crowded roster and land yourself a crown jewel. But, a lot of this debate will be decided by the standings 5 weeks from now. As of today, there aren’t enough teams that are willing to declare themselves out of contention for the present season. After another 20 games are in the books, that number should increase dramatically and the marketplace will become more trade-friendly. And it doesn’t necessarily have to be a blockbuster acquisition. I’d love to have Garnett or Gasol, but there are plently of solid bigs out there that could complement Wallace, and given the assets the Bulls have, it wouldn’t require tearing apart the current rotation.

Love your basketball analysis!
Few questions for you

Do you expect Gasol to be traded ?

If so, given that Allen Iverson was traded for basically a bag of chips, could the Bulls offer a package around Duhon (a guard that Memphis could actually use), and Brown/Swetney's expirining contract, and would they have to give up that Knicks pick to complete a trade OR would the financial flexibility/Duhon be enough ?

What is Gasol's current contract, and what would trading for him do to the futures of Gordon/Deng and Nocioni ?

Thanks again for your insights!

I guess it all depends on who they are going after. The nice thing is, they have tons of options. There are a lot of ways to make this team better, but there are a lot of ways to screw it up, too. I really like this team, and would prefer they keep everybody together and see what happens over the next 5 years. I realize that it's not very realistic to have a 10 man rotation. That kind of depth will get you into the playoffs (like Memphis has done the past two years), but once you're there it might hurt more than it helps.

I just think the perceived gap between Kirk and Duhon is a lot larger than their actual gap. He also seems to be a good "Glue" guy. Bucket, you mentioned that Duhon only has one year after this and then will get around $6M per (probably 4/$24M). That's still leaves more cap room for extending Gordon and Deng.

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"Tubby? Oh yes, Tubby."

I completely agree. For all the talk about Hinrich's "great" defense, he's really not much better, if at all, than Duhon. And while Hinrich is a better scorer, Duhon definitely makes better decisions on the fast break and in initiating the offense. Part of the problem here is that not only do the fans and media think Hinrich is better than he actually is, but so does Hinrich himself. That leads him to play a very undisciplined offensive game at times.

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I don’t necessarily expect Gasol to be moved, but at the same time, I don’t believe a word from the current Memphis ownership. It’s too long and drawn out to get into here, but if you’re curious you can google for some recent articles on the topic. Readers Digest version: they’re trying to sell the team, it’s not going smoothly, Jerry West is not happy, etc. Basically, it’s a bad situation down there. So, for them to say that a $70 million dollar contract will never be moved, I’m not buying it. Don’t get your hopes up, but don’t dismiss the notion either. Also, Gasol has 5 years left (including this season) and is currently making about $12 mil, with slight escalations each season. He’s actually the most attainable, financially speaking, star player in the league that’s not currently under a rookie contract. Theoretically, he could be had for Brown & Sweetney. They’d never do that obviously, but the numbers would match up.

Gasol has much higher trade value than Iverson did. He’s 8 years younger, has less baggage, and is a 7 footer that does a bit of everything. Those guys don’t grow on trees. The bigger problem, though, as I mentioned above, is that he’s not that difficult to squeeze in from a cap standpoint. That means more potential suitors. Very few teams could absorb Garnett’s contract. Almost anyone could take on $12 mil for Gasol.

As I see it right now, you’re 1 big man away from a kick ass 8-man rotation:

G hinrich
G gordon
G thabo

F deng
F nocioni
F tyrus

C wallace
C player x

You have the following assets that could be moved without disturbing the primary rotation:

G duhon
G griffin
F khryapa
C brown
C sweetney
C allen
2007 pick from the Knicks

If you can somehow land a legitmate big man from the players/pick on the 2nd list, you have a championship caliber team. Brown & Sweetney are both expiring contracts totaling roughly $11 mil. I might offer those 2 plus the pick for Gasol. Memphis would probably hang up the phone, but nothing ventured nothing gained. My guess is it would take Brown, one of their young players with promise, and the pick. In that case, you’d really have to think it over because that’s a lot to give.

There are plenty of options, though. Names will come out in the next month that we haven’t been hearing to date. This is an entirely separate conversation that I could go on for days about, so I’ll just give one example: if Sacramento continues to get rolled over and decides to dump big contracts in order to rebuild, I’d gladly give you PJ Brown for a guy like Brad Miller. The Bulls should be able to absorb a contract like that without fear of losing Deng, Gordon, or Nocioni. Noce is the wild card, though. They have exclusive rights to deal with Deng & Gordon this offseason. Noce is a straight up free agent. If someone offers him a crazy contract, there’s not much you can do about it.

Technically speaking, at this point it's about the luxury tax, not the cap. The heart of this team, excluding Noce, is essentially locked up, so you can forget about cap space for several years (until Wallace comes off the books in 2010, which would be the last year of Tyrus & Thabo's rookie deals, potentially giving them another window for cap space). The luxury tax is approximately $10 mil beyond the salary cap. Pax has always said he can spend up to the luxury tax, which I believe is $64 this year and should be around $68 next year, assuming it rises in proportion with the cap itself.

Signing Deng & Gordon to new deals is the least of their worries. There's a chance they may lose Nocioni if someone chooses to overpay him, but beyond that, this team is set going forward. The crux of the situation is that this year is the last hurrah to make a big splash. If they let Brown, and his bloated expiring contract, walk this offseason, then they essentially have 2 moves that can be made. The draft pick and the mid-level exception (which I believe gives them $3.5 mil, since they gave Griffin $1.5 mil this past offseason). I'm not eager to part with the pick necessarily, I'd rather keep it and roll the dice on the lottery balls. However, there's no reason to believe that a significant move couldn't be made while still keeping the pick. If you want Garnett, Gasol, etc, then yes, the pick is gone. But there are plenty of guys out there that could be had for less. As we get closer to the 2nd week of February, we should see a pool of candidates emerge.

Thanks for keeping it brief Bucket.

(By the way, you know way too much about the Bulls contract / cap situation. You should be a "capologist".)

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You know me like that.

can anyone tell me why gordon can't figure out how to play well when he starts?

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"Do work, son" -Big Black

I don't think this is a given. The Atlantic Division is awful! The Knicks could finish 8 games under and still win it and avoid the lottery.

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"Tubby? Oh yes, Tubby."

Scott, I know what you’re saying, but I’m counting on New Jersey to get their act together, win about 35 games and take that crappy division. Also, I’m done daydreaming about Greg Oden (and his Laurence Fishburne beard), as it appears New York is not as bad as we’d hoped. My second choice would be Durant from Texas, but that’s not likely either. At this point, I’m expecting something along the lines of a Josh McRoberts from Duke.

I could be wrong, but I was watching the end of the Knicks/Kings game last night, and I thought the announcer say the Knicks record at 13-21 is identical to last year's record at this time.

Looking at the other teams around them record-wise, Memphis will certainly finish worse than them, and Philly has a good chance to as well, but I still believe teams like the Bobcats, Hornets (if they get healthy), Atlanta will improve towards the end of the year with their younger players, meanwhile, the Knicks can always cash it any point.

I think we're going to end up with a 3-4 overall pick.

The Bobcats are really buried in the standings, but they’ve had injury issues and have also played the toughest schedule in the NBA to date. They may surpass the Knicks if Gerald Wallace & Emeka Okafor can finish out the season without any setbacks.

The Hawks came out gangbusters, but I really don’t like the mix of players they’ve assembled. I love Joe Johnson, but they still don’t have a point guard or a legitimate NBA center. I’d love to see them creep up in the standings, but I’m not counting on it.

The Grizzlies, as you mention, should continue sucking. Gasol alone is not enough to carry them in the West. I’ve never liked Mike Miller, and the rest of that squad is dogshit. They have some nice youngsters, but none of them are ready for serious competition in that conference.

The Sixers should finish badly, and even more so if they’re able to move Andre Miller for an expiring contract.

The Hornets are in big trouble. Peja may be out for the season. Paul is hurt. West is hurt. They’re not especially deep to begin with, and if these guys don’t come back for some meaningful games, New Orleans could be in for a very high pick.

Too bad Knicks ownership gave Isiah the “win, or elseâ€

Bucket you missed your calling. You have more hoops information than the dopes that get paid to do this. Keep it coming.

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We all have private ails. The troublemakers are they who need public cures for their private ails.- Eric Hoffer

Yes, Spinning Buckets, you should be required to write long stories each day about the NBA, this is must read material you have in here, great to read, and thanks for sharing!

[quote="Spinnin' Bucket"]The Bobcats are really buried in the standings, but they’ve had injury issues and have also played the toughest schedule in the NBA to date. They may surpass the Knicks if Gerald Wallace & Emeka Okafor can finish out the season without any setbacks.

The Hawks came out gangbusters, but I really don’t like the mix of players they’ve assembled. I love Joe Johnson, but they still don’t have a point guard or a legitimate NBA center. I’d love to see them creep up in the standings, but I’m not counting on it.

The Grizzlies, as you mention, should continue sucking. Gasol alone is not enough to carry them in the West. I’ve never liked Mike Miller, and the rest of that squad is dogshit. They have some nice youngsters, but none of them are ready for serious competition in that conference.

The Sixers should finish badly, and even more so if they’re able to move Andre Miller for an expiring contract.

The Hornets are in big trouble. Peja may be out for the season. Paul is hurt. West is hurt. They’re not especially deep to begin with, and if these guys don’t come back for some meaningful games, New Orleans could be in for a very high pick.

Too bad Knicks ownership gave Isiah the “win, or elseâ€

Alright...looks like I've nailed this one, too! Two straight "DNP, Coach's Decision" doesn't exactly bode well for my arguement here...

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"Tubby? Oh yes, Tubby."