I was going mention Papelbon. There's all kinds of guys like Looper, Dempster Smoltz et al who have gone from 1 role to another with varying success at different times in their career. I agree with the thought that Sale may not have the mechanics to be a durable starter, everything about his motion says "reliever". I have no idea if Cooper would want to fiddle around with these conversion projects, but he seems to be the type of pitching coach who could convert a guy in mid career.

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I guess that's where we disagree. I think the value of closers is highly overrated. In fact, I can't believe that no manager has attempted to use the Bill James method of putting his top reliever in the highest leverage situations, i.e. crucial spots with men on in close games, and letting a lesser guy handle the clean ninth. But there are obviously reasons it hasn't happened, including the way these guys get paid and the fact that they've been trained to believe their role is one particular inning. Those are hard things to overcome when they are part of the fabric of the game.

I have little doubt Adam Wainwright could have been a good, maybe great closer, if the Cardinals had gone that way with him. So I;ll ask, do you think he would have greater value even if he were as good as Mariano Rivera than he does as a perennial Cy Young contender?

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Actually it has been tried. Theo Epstein attempted it in his first year with the Red Sox, 2003. He tried it with Mike Timlin, Bob Howry, Alan Embree, Brandon Lyon, and a couple other guys. It failed so miserably that he had to go get BY Kim to finish the year as closer. Closers are important, whether you believe they are or not. Name a World Series winner and in a great majority of the cases the closer had an outstanding year.

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Are you suggesting any of those guys was an elite reliever?

And of course the closer on a World Series winner has an outstanding year. His team won a lot of games.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Well, I doubt you could put together a team of elite relievers, so I'm not sure what you're point is, but Timlin and Embree were essential pieces in the 2004 bullpen and Howry and Lyon were pretty good back then. Now, if you are saying that you need a bullpen full of Riveras to make the Bill James system work, then yes, I will begrudingly agree with you.


So the closer has a great year because the team wins alot of games? They don't actually have to pitch well? Well, then if the White Sox are going to win the WS, then Sale will have a great year, BY DEFINITION.

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This guy makes a limited case for having your best bp guy be your set up man (or other critical situation pitcher):

"My feeling is: If you put someone good — your second- or third-best reliever — into the closer role, then you will have your best pitcher to use in key situations. You will have him to secure the eighth inning, of course, but you could also use him at other crucial times. I think the game is shifting that way now. I think that’s what some of the smarter teams are quietly beginning to do. Take Boston: There’s all this talk about how good a closer Daniel Bard can be for the Red Sox. But I think they might be better off with him dominating in the role he’s in now and someone else, someone not as good, in the closer role. We’ll keep an eye on that."

http://joeposnanski.si.com/2010/11/26/t ... setup-man/

A recent team I recall having a closer-caliber set up man were the 2008 Cubs. Cubs won more games than any other team in baseball that year with an adequate Kerry Wood in the closer's role, but with Marmol shutting the door on team's in the 8th and/or 7th innings. Skip ahead to Marmol becoming the full-time closer in 2010 with no comparable bp arm in the set up role (Kee-rist, at one point they moved Zambrano to the bp to be the set up guy) and the Cubs start blowing game after game in the 7th/8th innings.

Another team with solid set up guys but probably not the strongest closer(s): 2010 Minnesota Twins.

That's pretty much straight out of Baseball Abstract.

The point isn't that you need a pen full of Riveras. Nobody has that. The point is that it makes more sense to use Rivera when the game is on the line- whether it's in the fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth or ninth inning.

And if the Sox have a good year, whoever the closer is will almost certainly have had a good year. But the closer could have a good year on a bad Sox team.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I wouldn't waste Sale in the bullpen any longer than necessary. If Peavy returns and returns to form and they don't trade away any starters, Sale could probably wait til 2012 to enter the rotation, as Buehrle will either be retired or a Cardinal by then, but why waste another year.

Reds are planning to use Chapman in the bullpen again in 2011 before moving him into the starting rotation after that, seems like a waste: http://redlegnation.com/2010/12/07/dust ... -and-more/

Sox could trade Buehrle to the Yankees for Gardner or David Robertston (or both), take the payroll savings and sign Beltre to play 3B and then move Sale into the rotation.

If Buehrle hangs around til the trade deadline, maybe start Sale off in the minors and then bring him up to join the starting rotation mid-season

And using him in the ninth has worked out pretty well.


And the closer could have a bad year on a good Sox team. See 2010 Bobby Jenks.

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