Post your interesting betting angles here....

I just looked up the 12 John Dewan stats that he uses to predict the SU SB winner. I come up with 9-3 Bears. Has anyone else done this yet? Curious to see if I am on with these stats.

What about the Hank Stram criteria? I believe it ended up being an incredibly accurate predictor of success.

bud dude....where are these Dewan criteria?

_________________
@audioidkid

Dewann will definitely be on the Murph show before the Super Bowl.

Here is an interesting angle: At the beginning of the playoffs the AFC was a 4 point favorite. Now, the #1 seed in the NFC goes up against the #3 seed in the NFC. You would think that number would do no worse than remain static or possibly go down.

Also, if there is anyone who has the information, I think it would be helpfull to get periodic updates on where the money is being played.

I'll just keep posting to myself: has a dome team ever won a super bowl in an outdoor location?

The cowboys beat the steelers in XXX and I think that SB was at Sun Devil Stadium.

If the cowboys don't count then the answer is no. Looking at past SB scores... not many dome teams have made it.

Dolphin, I'll check in periodically on the money flows. Right now, the early money is pretty even, though I'm hearing some "sharps" talking about taking the points, of course. (Most sharps rarely lay 7 in any NFL game). Also, there appears to be early pressure on the under; am already seeing 48.5 at some places.

after rethinking the over.....i'm just taking the Bears +7, +6 worst case....

_________________
@audioidkid

Dolphin you bring up a good point. My dad took the NFC over the AFC in December. He got the NFC as 4.5 dogs. What has changed? The Bears were always the number 1 seed. They blew out their NFC championship game. Plus Vegas knew it would be one of 4 great teams. And you are right. The 3 seed gets in. I just don't get this line.

This is from Dewan's stat of the week website for the championship games.
I think he said to Murph that it has picked 14 of the last 16 winners.

-----

For the AFC Championship:
Category Team with Advantage
Points Scored Colts
Points Allowed Patriots
Point Differential Patriots
Fewer Net Passing Yards Patriots
Rushing Yards Patriots
Rushing Yards / Attempt Colts
Opponent Net Passing Yards Colts
Opponent Rushing Yards Patriots
Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt Patriots
Opponent Total Yards / Game Patriots
Turnover Differential Patriots
Regular Season Record Tie

Patriots take eight categories and the Colts only three. The AFC #4 seeded Patriots look to be in the Super Bowl yet again (third time in four years!) with a road win against the #3 seeded Colts.

For the NFC Championship:
Category Team with Advantage
Points Scored Bears
Points Allowed Bears
Point Differential Bears
Fewer Net Passing Yards Bears
Rushing Yards Bears
Rushing Yards / Attempt Bears
Opponent Net Passing Yards Saints
Opponent Rushing Yards Bears
Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt Bears
Opponent Total Yards / Game Bears
Turnover Differential Bears
Regular Season Record Bears

Wow, that is a huge advantage for the Bears, eleven categories to one. Looking at all 40 Super Bowls, the only perfect season in NFL history, the 1972 Miami Dolphins, had the only perfect 12-0 tally on the predictor system. The other four teams winning 11 categories on the predictor system (including the 1985 Bears) also all won the Super Bowl. As a huge Bears fan I sure hope this Super Bowl predictor system works for the NFC Championship this year!

_________________
We all have private ails. The troublemakers are they who need public cures for their private ails.- Eric Hoffer

There was some guy on North's show during the Superbowl media week for Oakland/Tampa Bay a few years ago. He had one of those streaks on picking the winner, but that year he told North that the NFL stopped providing him with the stats he needed to do this. He said he got a new system, which North thought would be crap, and he was wrong (picked Oakland), but I don't remember his name, could be one of those mentioned above?

Dallas Morning News columnist Tim Cowlishaw has an interesting formula along the lines of Dewan's.
Both his and Dewan's have the Bears with a decided advantage.

Here is the column.

_________________
We all have private ails. The troublemakers are they who need public cures for their private ails.- Eric Hoffer