Michigan:
Quote:
This year appears to be even better for Michigan, but to call that a success is to pick up the story from 2010, rather than following it back to 2007. Whatever the merits of the 2010 Wolverines or Rodriguez as a coach, the idea that early struggles would pay late dividends seems quite fanciful today. The best case scenario for this year cannot be more than 8-4, not when games against Ohio State, Penn State, and Notre Dame all come on the road. Add in home games against top-15 outfits Wisconsin and Iowa, and the Wolverines will have to flip a probable loss into a win just to hit that best-case number. Factor in deceivingly tough games against Uconn and road trips to Indiana and Purdue, and the case for 8 wins becomes even tougher. Even the “obvious” wins on the schedule may be anything but; Illinois has just as many regular season wins as Michigan over the last two years, yet Illinois won by 25 points in their matchups against the Wolverines in both 2008 and 2009.
Still, eight wins is plausible. So what? The 2007 Wolverines won eight games--nine, if you count their bowl victory--and it’s hard to imagine a Lloyd Carr team falling quite as far as Rodriguez’s 2008 version, even with the struggles at QB. A return to eight wins would merely be a return to a status quo that Michigan fans had so recently found unacceptable. And if the 2011 version isn’t on pace to be a legitimate BCS team--if you squint hard enough, you might see a Rose Bowl team somewhere in there two years down the line, though it’s difficult--that all that sturm und drang in 2007 and 2008 went for naught.
Unfortunately for Michigan, a failure in 2010 does not mean hitting the reset button and continuing onward. Rodriquez’s recruits are fitted for his system, and any new coach is likely to have difficulty reestablishing the traditional Michigan power attack. Defensive recruiting has been slow over the past two years, and many positions even now are dangerously thin. A failure to make a bowl game this year would mean that many recruits targeted by Michigan will have been in grade school or freshmen in high school the last time Michigan won a bowl game. And as pre-Saban Alabama fans or pre-Pelini Nebraska fans could tell you, it’s a long way back to the top, even for the most storied of programs.
The 2009 pattern repeated itself, as a hot team cooled off rapidly. I misidentified the tough games, although Indiana (and to a lesser extent, Purdue) put up a struggle. The Illinois 3OT game mattered tremendously for both teams, but probably more for Michigan; had the Wolverines lost that home game, they may not have retained RR even into the bowl game.
There will be plenty of time to talk about the coaching change, but the most damning stat to me? Michigan was 0-8 against the spread in Big Ten play, a sign of significant and persistent disappointment. The horses may not have been there, especially on defense, but there are no excuses for underperforming expectations each and every week.
Login
Register
FAQ
Search
