This week, right now (if fully healthy), I would rather have Westbrook, Stephen Jackson, or Clinton Portis. Maybe LT, but 2008 may be the beginning of the end for him. All three can be used as receivers out of the backfield, all three will give you the same production on the ground, and, at least in the case of Westbrook and Portis, they are better blockers on passing downs. The knock on all three has been health, but AP didn't make it through last season without missing a couple of games either. Not a long list- he's 4th, maybe 5th.

Adrian Peterson doesn't miss most of the balls thrown to him because he's not a third down back. He misses them because he's a shitty receiver. Here's some prominent RB pairings by catch percentage:

Minnesota: Peterson- 55%, Taylor- 80%
Philly: Westbrook- 73%, Buckhalter- 78%
Miami: Brown- 78%, Williams, 76%
Jets: Jones- 84%, Washington, 77%
Oakland: McFadden- 78%, Bush- 67%
Washington: Portis- 82%, Betts- 57%
San Diego- Tomlinson- 71%, Sproles- 81%
Indy- Addai- 62%, Rhodes- 71%

Some teams, the 3rd down back gets a greater percentage. Some teams, he gets fewer. Peterson is 49th out of 49 running backs in percentage of balls thrown caught. Only Laddell Betts, Julius Jones, Chris Perry and AP have caught fewer than 60% of the balls they have been thrown out of the backfield, and Laddell bets just barely qualifies (21 passes thrown to him).

_________________
Fire Phil Emery

Wow, I've been enlightened. A RB is "average" because he can't catch passes. I could probably post stats that make WRs look bad on handoffs (end arounds, reverses, etc). AP is there to run the ball, not catch passes. When he starts dropping handoffs, then maybe you have a case here.

_________________

When you use quote marks, it means that you're quoting somebody. Please show me where I said AP was average. I'm starting to think you might be illiterate.

Also: this isn't 1940. Part of a running back's responsibilities includes receptions out of the backfield and blocking, much more so than the occasional wrinkle of WR handoffs. Catching and blocking are basic requirements of the halfback position. If you have a running back that can't do one of those things, then your offense is limited in some way. I didn't say catchng the ball out of the backfield is the primary responsibility of a RB, but it is an important responsibility.

_________________
Fire Phil Emery

Short, or selective memory IB?

Obviously, a RB that is a great pass receiver adds a dynamic to the offense. You yourself said only listed 3 guys that you would take over AP (I'll edit and quote again if you need me to). So even by your own admission he is a top 5 back in the league. AP adds a dynamic that most NFL teams do not have- a great runner. With what he does running the ball, I think the Vikes are fine with sufferring a little with his pass catching ability, or lack thereof. And Chester Taylor seems to thrive in that position anyway, so they merely interchange the two on offense.

_________________

13 pages, yee-haa!

If you're going to quote me, it helps to not take it out of context:



So I said, by one metric, he's league average, but he makes up for it in other ways. Somehow, that morphs into "he's average." So no, I never said that. Even in your own sentence, the one you quoted, it says "in terms of success percentage", after I went through a big long thing about what success percentage is.

I also said there were 3 guys I'd take ahead of him, maybe four. That puts him well above most of the players in the league. Yes, I've never denied that. But being the 4th-best at a position doesn't make him great. Who's the 4th-best QB in football right now? Maybe Drew Brees, or maybe Ben Roethlisberger, or Tony Romo. Are they "great"? They're all very good players. There's no sense in getting ejaculatory over the 4th best guy at his position.

_________________
Fire Phil Emery

Not to nit-pick, but, Buckhalter, Williams, and Sproles are not 3rd down/pass package backs. They just come in for entire series at a time to give the starter a blow. The Oakland situation is a mess with injuries and suck.

_________________

Gotcha, IB. You never said he was average, just that he has a "low success rate."

And Forte is better, or more complete? Nas, if there is ONE GUY in the NFL who you can say is boderline great, or he needs to show me more, its Matt Forte. He sure looks like the real deal, but he is the guy we need to see more from. AP has proven he will be great for a while as long as he's healthy.

So moral of these threads are that the Bears are medicore, Frank is a 'meatball,' McNabb is still one of the best clutch QBs ever, and AP is unproven and has a low success rate.

You guys can spin anything to try and make yourselves sound right. You're almost as good as North in that regard

_________________

And this is a stat we see in the papers and ESPN every Sunday.

_________________

The success rate thing isn't even opinion. It's just statistical fact. You can play with success rate if you define it differently- saying you need to pick up 50% of the yards needed on first down or something- but the underlying facts just stay the same. All it measures is variability. Football is going through the same revolution baseball did a generation ago, where old, bad statistics (like ranking teams based on pure yardage gained) are being replaced with cntext-specific ratings and more complicated variables like success rate and catch rates. The fact that you've heard of it doesn't mean the statistics are flawed (although they could be), all it means is that you need to catch up to the 21st century.

Spanky: I just grabbed RBs on the same team with more than 20 passes thown to them each (for sample size). That's not a huge group of guys. Not a lot of teams do the strict 3rd down application like they used to; Minnesota doesn't apply it very strictly either.

_________________
Fire Phil Emery

There's a lot of new stats out there. Some of them are good. Some aren't as good. I use the ones I think are indicative of something important. I always try to explain what the stat is and what it's trying to get at. Attacking the stat as flawed is understandable- Spanky pointing out that there may be discrepancies between third down backs and regular backs is a common-sensical question, but it's not really borne out in the numbers. It's not really enough just to say, "bah, I've never heard of it." If you think what the stats measure isn't imortant, or that the stat doesn't really measure it, then say that.

_________________
Fire Phil Emery

this thread needs to stop. stat.

call me old-fashioned, but rushing yards, yards per carry, and TDs are the only individual stats i need to see.

26 career games (21 starts)
2652 rushing yards
5.2 yards per carry
21 rushing trips into the end zone

that is great production. HOF? no, not in a year and a half. he keeps up these numbers for 7, 8, 9 more years, stays healthy, sure, no doubt. the guy is a GREAT runner. he is not a great pass receiver. i dont know enough about him and havent watched him enough to know his value as a blocker. is he really that terrible? is he called on to block a lot? is he average? does anyone reading this really know, because i dont. i really didnt notice or pay attention to it the other night.

he is not an all-time great or close to it yet, but he is clearly one of 2 or 3 great active RB's. those kind of numbers are phenomenal. as mentioned earlier, he may burn fast and bright, and then pay a heavy toll.

I understand - was just trying to clarify.

_________________

I think (and hope) Forte may have "it". I don't know why and don't have stats, I just want to believe. The Bears could screw him up though.

Oh the Vikings Adrian Peterson? Oh im sorry. I was talking about the Whoopi Goldberg looking one on the bears for the first 12 pages.

_________________

He might be great...what's his success rate?

Well he probably makes more dollars per year than words spoken per year so id say pretty good to borderline great

I need to see the "2nd string RB pairings by catch percentage" broken down before I can make any judgement on him.

_________________

Are you deliberately stupid, or do you just act that way?

EDIT: OK, that's not fair. Are you too stupid to acknowledge anything that goes beyond Baldinger levels of analysis, even if you disagree with it? "Catch rate is a flawed metric because..." is a valid argument. "I'm too stupid to understand what catch rate means, and I've never heard anyone talk about it before so it must be useless" just displays your own ignorance.

_________________
Fire Phil Emery

I'm not stupid, I just have a low success rate.

_________________

Folks, that right there is pure comdey.

_________________
"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

Ummmm..............me?

_________________

No he's been trying to refer to me as the sidekick even though frank and i have argued more than anything. One of Nas attempts to divert attention from his ridiculous backpeddling of only borderline great

If you fellas can't see that I'm taking this and running with it, me being a meatball or AP being boderline great is far from the biggest problem in this thread.

_________________

We're not sidekicks. We're his posse.

_________________
"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

What'd you call me?

_________________

If the NFL has a better running back than the Vikings' Adrian Peterson, the Cardinals don't want to see him.

Peterson rushed for 165 yards on 28 carries, including 104 in the first half.

"He makes (the Vikings offensive line) that much better," Cardinals safety Adrian Wilson said. "I can't say enough good things about him and the way he plays and the demeanor he plays with. He's arguably the best player in the league."

Linebacker Karlos Dansby called Peterson "the best back in the league."

"You have to continue to hit him because they are going to continue to give him the ball," Dansby said. "He makes people miss. He has the ability to take it to the house when he does."

_________________