Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Fridays card
Friday, November 4, 2011 Get PPs »
Odds and comments by Brad Free. Horses listed in order of handicapper's preference.
Juvenile Sprint
full coverage »
Purse: $500,000, 6 furlongs
HORSE / TRAINER
JOCKEY
LAST 3 BEYERS
COMMENT
ODDS
Secret Circle
B. Baffert
R. Bejarano
97, 97
Fast, unbeaten colt deserving favorite new addition to BC race menu
4-5
Seeker
S. Asmussen
J. Leparoux
67, 95, 76
Two ordinary efforts sandwich terrific wet-track score two starts back
6-1
Vexor
J. Kimmel
D. Cohen
80, 0, 80
G2 winner on "good" track, his career-high 80 Beyer is only average
6-1
Holdin Bullets
W. Ward
J. Sanchez
-
Lone start was wire job in April, trainer-owner may have ace up sleeve
8-1
Blacky the Bull
J. Bonde
P. Valenzuela
83, 53, 74
Improving come-from-behinder in sprint likely to unfold swift pace
10-1
Trinniberg
B. Parboo
C. Velasquez
78, 78, 35
Stuck on 78s (Beyer), somehow managed to place in dubious G1 & G2
10-1
Sum of the Parts
T. Amoss
R. Maragh
78, 64, 71
Rounding back into form, the only entrant with a start (win) at CD
15-1
Shumoos
B. Meehan
G. Gomez
n/a, n/a, n/a
Euro shipper faces North American speed, winner turf and synthetic
20-1
Jake Mo
A. Milligan
M. Smith
73, 81, 81
Third-place comeback was first start nearly three months, can improve
20-1
Juvenile Fillies Turf
full coverage »
Purse: $1,000,000, 1 mile
HORSE / TRAINER
JOCKEY
LAST 3 BEYERS
COMMENT
ODDS
Elusive Kate
J. Gosden
W. Buick
n/a, n/a, n/a
Top G1 European shipper at rock-bottom odds, won four straight
2-1
Somali Lemonade
M. Matz
A. Solis
90, 85
Came to hand rapidly, last-to-first winner both including G3, bad post
5-1
Sweet Cat
T. Pletcher
G. Gomez
86, 77, 58
Trainer good with these, finished nine lengths clear of third in last
5-1
Stopshoppingmaria
T. Pletcher
J. Castellano
86, 101, 78
Fastest dirt filly of year (101 Beyer), testing turf potential of sire
6-1
Stephanie's Kitten
W. Catalano
J. Velazquez
88, 79, 74
Improving every start and established on turf, won G1 synth last out
10-1
Pure Gossip
P. Serpe
R. Curatolo
87, 69, 66
Romped by more than six lengths on "soft" ground in BEL Grade 3
10-1
Dayatthespa
C. Brown
R. Dominguez
83, 79
Ran well both starts, freshened since runner-up G3 early September
12-1
Hard Not to Like
G. Cox
M. Smith
80, 63, 76
Misfired her only start against top company, won three other races
20-1
Dear Lavinia
J. Rouget
C. Lemaire
n/a, 94, 96
Won 3 of 5 in France while campaigning vs. lesser company
20-1
My Gi Gi
B. Koriner
R. Bejarano
79, 77, 52
Two good grass races at LaD gives her a longshot license
20-1
Customer Base
T. Proctor
J. Leparoux
75, 82
Two good wins on synthetic, by a stallion that gets turf runners
20-1
Up
A. O'Brien
R. Moore
n/a, n/a
Maiden winner on synthetic surface in Ireland, difficult to like
30-1
Ann of the Dance
M. Wolfson
C. Nakatani
71, 72, 63
Midwest synthetic specialist taking a shot switching to turf
30-1
Royal Bonnie
G. Weaver
C. Velasquez
73, 70
Distant runner-up in soft-turf G3, lightly raced filly with upside
30-1
Also Eligible:
Bourbonstreetgirl
G. Contessa
J. Talamo
63, 67, 55
Won debut $75k maiden-claimer, then soundly beaten two stakes
30-1
Karlovy Vary
G. Arnold
G. Gomez
77, 72
Maiden winner last time out at KEE jumps into deep end
30-1
Filly & Mare Sprint
full coverage »
Purse: $1,000,000, 7 furlongs
HORSE / TRAINER
JOCKEY
LAST 3 BEYERS
COMMENT
ODDS
Turbulent Descent
M. Puype
D. Flores
103, 97, 90
Deserving chalk sensational at one turn, this is her first against older
8-5
Switch
J. Sadler
J. Rosario
87, 92, 95
Seven-furlong beast in winter, raced wide and ran okay KEE tuneup
7-2
Pomeroys Pistol
A. Tarrant
J. Castellano
98, 95, 95
3-year-old filly continues to improve, crushed older last out BEL G2
4-1
Tanda
M. Mitchell
J. Talamo
94, 93, 92
Better-than-looked tuneup in fast-pace turf sprint, upset chance
8-1
Irish Gypsy
B. Baffert
M. Garcia
84, 80, 95
Likely not this caliber except at HOL, but working fast on SA dirt
12-1
Musical Romance
W. Kaplan
J. Leyva
89, 88, 76
All-surface specialist won G2 on synthetic vs. much easier company
15-1
Great Hot
A. Avila
C. Sutherland
82, 91, 91
Best still ahead for Brazilian import, synth winner actually prefers dirt
15-1
Golden Mystery
J. Guerrero
K. Carmouche
97, 93, 88
Earned lofty speed figures at PRX and MTH, now gets tested for class
20-1
Shotgun Gulch
C. Trout
G. Gomez
80, 86, 84
Come-from-clouds longshot unlikely to get hot-pace setup required
20-1
Her Smile
T. Pletcher
J. Velazquez
77, 84, 96
Has one big race in her career, her other starts say this race too tough
30-1
Tamarind Hall
J. Englehart
D. Cohen
89, 79, 98
Popped sky-high speed figs in June and July, rounding back to best?
30-1
Tar Heel Mom
S. Hough
A. Solis
80, 80, 101
Tough to endorse following back-to-back 80 Beyers in New York
30-1
Champagne d'Oro
E. Guillot
C. Nakatani
87, 81, 82
Her form was better last year at age 3, shortens route to sprint
30-1
Juvenile Fillies
full coverage »
Purse: $2,000,000, 1 1/16 miles
HORSE / TRAINER
JOCKEY
LAST 3 BEYERS
COMMENT
ODDS
Grace Hall
A. Dutrow
R. Dominguez
78, 85, 72
Followed G1 sprint with two-turn crusher, good filly getting better
3-1
My Miss Aurelia
S. Asmussen
C. Nakatani
96, 91, 86
Unbeaten three fast races at one turn, can be gone if gets two turns
2-1
Candrea
B. Baffert
M. Garcia
85, 85, 75
Ran super pushing quick pace, looms major threat on or near front
5-1
Weemissfrankie
P. Eurton
R. Bejarano
86, 77, 77
Three-for-three in California, opinions vary regarding strength of wins
5-1
Miss Netta
K. McLaughlin
R. Maragh
79, 74, n/a
Gate issues cost her G1 shot, sired by winner of BC Juvenile and Derby
10-1
Say a Novena
E. Plesa
E. Trujillo
76, 78, 72
Good sprinter maxing out her pedigree trying to get two turns
15-1
Rocket Twentyone
W. Howard
E. Razo Jr.
74, 46
Indian Charlie filly could be better than her numbers, bomber?
15-1
Putthebabiesdown
K. McPeek
A. Garcia
85, 67, 68
Can't deny upward form cycle, top Kentucky trainer due for BC win
15-1
Questing
J. Gosden
W. Buick
n/a, n/a, n/a
Good Euro shipper enters dirt race that so far has stymied Euros
20-1
Homecoming Queen
A. O'Brien
R. Moore
n/a, n/a, n/a
Made 10 starts in Ireland, won twice, taking a shot while razor sharp
30-1
Northern Passion
M. Casse
L. Contreras
86, 82, 81
WO shipper's form flattered when filly she beat won G1 Alcibiades
30-1
Self Preservation
B. Cecil
J. Rosario
86, 101, 78
Tough spot based on tiring finish G1 at SA, may prefer turf/synthetic
30-1
Awesome Belle
S. Gold
L. Jurado
84, 58, 54
Took advantage of paceless race and romped, unlikely scenario again
15-1
Frolic's Revenge
M. Wolfson
J. Velazquez
78, 79, 78
Progress stalled as season and distances have lengthened
30-1
Filly & Mare Turf
full coverage »
Purse: $2,000,000, 1 3/8 miles, turf
HORSE / TRAINER
JOCKEY
LAST 3 BEYERS
COMMENT
ODDS
Stacelita
C. Brown
R. Dominguez
100, 101, 98
Queen of North America female grass division has won 10 of 17
2-1
Nahrain
R. Varian
L. Dettori
n/a, n/a, n/a
Group 1 win in France made it 4-for-4, credentials for this race
7-2
Dubawi Heights
S. Callaghan
J. Rosario
97, 98, 93
Tactical speed always gets good trip, leader shallow California group
4-1
Announce
A. Fabre
M. Guyon
n/a, n/a, n/a
Seasoned G1-caliber mare shipping from France in good form
5-1
Misty For Me
A. O'Brien
R. Moore
n/a, n/a, n/a
Miler won half her starts overseas, possibly challenged by distance
8-1
Harmonious
J. Shirreffs
M. Garcia
94, 92, 95
Promised more than delivered in this winless season as 4-year-old
12-1
Aruna
G. Motion
J. Leparoux
95, 95, 94
This is right surface, wrong distance.
12-1
Shared Account
G. Motion
E. Prado
90, 82, 96
Returned $94 winning this race last year, similar odds this year
20-1
Distorted Legacy
A. Penna
R. Maragh
96, 83, 85
Second at a big price G1 at BEL, seems outclassed
30-1
Cambina
J. Bonde
G. Gomez
92, 93, 92
Occasionally uncorks an impressive turn of foot
30-1
Dynaslew
S. Benzel
C. Nakatani
93, 92, 76
Slow-pace front-runner/presser will keep grinding, better in 2010?
30-1
Perfect Shirl
R. Attfield
J. Velazquez
97, 86, 93
Has fallen short against easier competition than this
30-1
Ladies' Classic
full coverage »
Purse: $2,000,000, 1 1/8 miles
HORSE / TRAINER
JOCKEY
LAST 3 BEYERS
COMMENT
ODDS
Plum Pretty
B. Baffert
R. Bejarano
108, 83, 96
Kentucky Oaks winner in spring, 108 Beyer in fall, holds pace advantage
8-5
Royal Delta
W. Mott
J. Lezcano
91, 97, 85
Nine furlongs at CD ideal for improving daughter of Empire Maker
5-2
It's Tricky
K. McLaughlin
R. Dominguez
95, 89, 97
Among trio of 3yos expected to dominate, already owns pair of G1's
4-1
Pachattack
G. Butler
R. Maragh
94, 95, 87
Hardly impossible, she runs on all surfaces and enters in top form
6-1
Miss Match
N. Drysdale
G. Gomez
93, 93, 95
Deep-closing bomber scored G1 upset in March for same connections
12-1
Ultra Blend
A. Sherman
D. Flores
94, 94, 95
Consistent and game Calbred always tries hard, might prefer shorter
12-1
Ask the Moon
M. Wolfson
J. Castellano
80, 99, 98
Her shining moments were summer at SAR, average elsewhere
20-1
Super Espresso
T. Pletcher
J. Velazquez
84, 87, 89
Not quite this caliber, taking a shot to pick up a piece
20-1
Satans Quick Chick
E. Reed
E. Prado
82, 86, 78
Would be an unpredictable shocker by deep-closing mare
30-1
Medaglia d'Amour
B. Cecil
P. Valenzuela
83, 88, 85
Ambitiously placed off dull recent, first preference F&M Turf
Those are the same picks I have.
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