It was written before the game last night and based on their play over their last 50 games it wasn't a terrible question. They had only lost 4 games and they weren't trying in 1 of them. Some may argue they don't try most games.
After two nail-biters in the Eastern Conference finals, the Miami Heat blew out the Indiana Pacers 114-96 in Game 3, thanks to LeBron James pummeling Paul George in the post and Udonis Haslem forgetting how to miss a jump shot.Because of a little phenomenon I like to call the "Permanence of the Last Game," we tend to believe the latest game portends the rest of the season. After a Game 2 loss, the sky was falling in Miami. After a Game 3 rout and ahead of Game 4 on Tuesday, the Heat have us thinking about their place in NBA history.But really, how does this Heat squad look when we line it up against the all-time greats?So far, it ranks right up there with the very best.To recap: The Heat are a preposterous 47-4 since early February. Like round numbers? No team has ever been better in a 50-game stretch than the Heat; only the 1966-67 Philadelphia 76ers and the 2006-07 Dallas Mavericks have matched it.The 50 or so sample of games is not entirely arbitrary, because midseason steal Chris Andersenjoined the team right around that time. In fact, the Heat are 49-5 when Andersen has played this season. How good is that record? It's a 74-win pace in a standard 82-game season.That's right, better than the juggernaut Chicago Bulls team that went 72-10 in the 1995-96 regular season.There's more: After Sunday's win in Indiana, the Heat became the first team in NBA history to win five consecutive postseason road games by double digits. They've won 23 of their past 24 road games dating back to the regular season. What's even crazier is that this team hasn't lost consecutive games in almost five months, not since the Jan. 8 and Jan. 10 losses to Indiana and Portland.For perspective, five months ago Rudy Gay was still playing for the Memphis Grizzlies, and the Los Angeles Lakers had only reset their season four times at that point.With all of this in mind, it makes plenty of sense that people are wondering if this Heat team has a chance to be the best team ever. But right now, is it on track to be better than the 1995-96 Bulls?Not quite.To anchor our discussion, we'll need a handy guide to walk us through NBA history. Luckily, we have one courtesy of Per Diem founder John Hollinger, who joined the Grizzlies' front office in December. A few years ago, he devised a system to rank the best Finals teams since the NBA-ABA merger. Using criteria that awards points based on regular-season and postseason performance (measured by average point margin and win-loss records), Hollinger rated 70 NBA finalists dating back to the merger. For all of the gory details about the system, check the sidebar.So, what were the best teams? Hollinger's system ranked the top three like so:(Note: The figures in parentheses are regular-season record, postseason record, average score margin in regular season, and average score margin in postseason.)1. 1995-96 Chicago Bulls: 327.9 points. (72-10, 15-3, plus-12.2, plus-10.6)2. 1986-87 Los Angeles Lakers: 301.5 points. (65-17, 15-3, plus-9.3, plus-11.4)3. 1985-86 Boston Celtics: 301.1 points. (67-15, 15-3, plus-9.4, plus-10.3)This more or less conforms to the conventional wisdom. As you can see, the 1995-96 Bulls squad ranks far and away the best team since the merger, and that jives pretty well with how we remember the squad that steamrolled through the league.But where does this Heat team fit in with all of that?Let's dive in.
Where do the Heat currently rank?
The Heat have been so dominant this season that even without playing another game, they'd rank in the top 20 among this group of Finals teams. The Heat already check in with 242 points, which is good for 17th, just above the 1999-2000 Lakers and behind the 2006-07 Spurs.Erik Spoelstra's crew has reached that point total because it won 66 games in the regular season and has lost only two postseason games so far, which is important because the Hollinger formula docks teams for every postseason loss on the ledger. That 1999-2000 Lakers team lost eight games en route to its title, including two in the first round to the Sacramento Kings.What's also key for this Heat team is its postseason average point margin. So far, it's beating teams by an average of 11.7 points -- and if that holds, it would be even better than the top-ranked 1995-96 Bulls (plus-10.6 points). It's a stroke of poetry that the 2012-13 Heat handed the Bulls their worst postseason loss in franchise history in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals.
What would it take for the 2012-13 Heat to beat the 1995-96 Bulls?
A miracle, pretty much. That is, under this system.Using the formula, we find that the Heat need about another 85 points to get to the 1995-96 Bulls' mark of 327.9 points. In order to reach that bar, the Heat would need to win every game from here on out by an average of 31.3 points. Yeah, 31.3 points. The Heat have beaten a team only twice this season by at least that amount (the Bulls on May 8, and the Bobcats on March 24).So even if the Heat slam the Pacers by 40 points in each of the next two games and trample the Spurs in four games by an average of 25 points, it still wouldn't put the Heat ahead of the 1995-96 Bulls team in this system. Why the enormous gap? Each win in the regular season is worth two points in Hollinger's system, so the Bulls' 72-10 record weighs heavily against this Heat team, which started a good, but not great 29-14 this season.Should we penalize the Heat for their relatively sluggish start to the season? Under this system, how a team finishes the regular season is just as important as how it starts, but it's understandable if you think otherwise (especially if you're a Heat fan).
Where do the 2012-13 Heat end up at their current pace?
The next two weeks will decide if the Heat can enter the "best ever" conversation. So far, so good. If the Heat win the rest of the playoffs with their average scoring margin this postseason (plus-11.7 points), they'll finish with a 298.5 point total, which puts them just a hair behind the top three teams (the 1986-87 Lakers and the 1985-86 Celtics finished with 301.5 points and 301.1 points, respectively).Even if the Heat lose a game and their average point margin drops to 10 points, their spot in the top five would be secured. If they need seven games to finish off the Pacers and the Spurs, they'd be virtually guaranteed to rank among the top eight.What would it take to place second to the 1995-96 Bulls? The Heat would have to win by 14 points on average the rest of the way -- which is not unthinkable, especially if Dwyane Wadecontinues to get healthier. But the Pacers (and potentially the Spurs) won't make it easy for the Heat. Speaking of the Pacers and the Spurs ...
What about the Pacers and the Spurs?
Despite the chatter these days, the Heat haven't raised the 2013 Larry O'Brien Trophy yet. The only team that has punched a ticket to the Finals, the Spurs, could be the last one standing. If they swept the Finals at their current winning margin of 10.1 points, where would that get them?Eighth, with 267.7 points. Who would they displace in the eighth spot? The 1998-99 Spurs (267.1 points). Calling it the best Spurs team ever would not be a stretch. However, if the Spurs win the title in seven games, it's more likely that they finish right around the 2007 champion Spurs, which finished 16th overall. That Spurs squad swept James' Cavaliers after finishing an identical 58-24 during the regular season and posting a 16-4 postseason record (oddly, they won by just 4.0 points on average).Of course, we can't forget about the Pacers. Under a fairly reasonable assumption that they'd need seven games to stave off the Heat and the Spurs while maintaining their average score margin (plus-1.1), the Pacers would check in at 163.1 points. Would that make them the worst champion on the board? Actually, no. The 1977-78 Washington Bullets finished with 162.6 points. The Pacers would just squeeze by.Ultimately, the Heat are still the favorite to win the championship if you look at the Vegas odds and our ESPN Forecast. They could carve out a spot in the "best ever" conversation in the next few weeks. But as the best ever? That title is probably safe with the 1995-96 Bulls
_________________ Be well
GO BEARS!!!
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