Beardown wrote:
I haven't heard the radio today, but what he said about his time management was bullshit. While he sounded smart, it was actually stupid.
So the Ravens had the ball on the 5. 1st and goal, with 1:16 left. He said if they call 3 straight time outs, they only get the ball with 18 seconds. Wrong. Yeah, if they run it 3 straight times you'd get the ball back with about 18 seconds.
What if they throw an incomplete pass? You save a time out and they can't run off 40 seconds on the game clock. It would actually mean you save like 65-70 seconds cuz now you stop it on 4th down instead of using your last on 3rd down. So you'd then get the ball back with over a minute.
It worked out. But it was wrong. Don't do it again, Trestman. Please, somebody explain to the genius coach what a cracker on a message board just said.
I couldn't agree more. It was not smart football. He stated his reason behind it, but his reasoning was severely flawed. Much like the Green Bay 4th down, this will be overlooked because of the outcome of the game. His argument was basically that he was going to force their hand in play calling by not giving them free time outs, but every team spends practice time specifically focused on a 2 minute drill, and every team spends practice time specifically on red zone plays. Plus, they had two time outs so if they really wanted to change up the personnel for some reason, they could have done it at least once, and twice if they were planning on passing on 3rd down regardless.
His whole thing about drives from the 16 yard line converting about 15% of the time was a great example of getting a fact right, but not applying it correctly. You always use the most recent information you have about a situation... I'm not sure if he is implying he didn't call timeouts because the Ravens only had a 15% chance of scoring a TD from the 5 yard line because they started with it from the 16 yard line or not, but if not, then what's the point of even bringing that up. Drives that start on the 16 and end up at the 5 score TDs 80% of the time in the past five years. Even then, it is all irrelevant because you just want to look at conversion rates of 1st and goal from the 5, and even then that's irrelevant because you have to adjust very significantly for the offense and defense in question -- these aren't two league average teams playing. Within that, you have to look at the individual matchups and so on, to the point that saying 15% of the time the TD is made just makes you sound like you know what you are talking about, but if you really dig into it, it makes no sense.