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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 9:23 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
#2 hitter should be the guy that has the best plate vision and takes a lot of pitches, imo


That's a very traditional viewpoint and not really supported by advanced statistics.

I know.

Im not handcuffed to every viewpoint like Bernstein.


I know you aren't. I just find it a far more interesting discussion than Sox and Cub fans arguing fruitlessly about whether Rizzo is "better" than Abreu.

I would think the same guys that mock a pitcher's win as a stat with any value should all be ridiculing the concept that the order of the hitters is in anyway important other than the attempt to make sure the best guys bat the most.

But that's a viewpoint that- like a whole lot of SABRmetric arguments- is based on the idea that "clutch" play is non-existent and that runs randomly fall where they will. The same basic argument that views a pitcher's performance as completely unrelated to the game in which it occurred.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 9:24 am 
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I saw one guy go O fer in the last big game.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 9:24 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
You should really stop applying Bernstein's stuff to Cub fans.

And if you think Cub fans are the only ones who are optimistic about their own players, I suggest you read some posts from your Sox fan friends on this board.


I wasn't making a statement about Cub fans. Just bernstein. More evidence of which team he actually roots for.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 9:27 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Let's get this back on track. Abreu is noticeably superior to Rizzo as of right now. Great call Steve Stone!
That, and the brooms that will be used later this evening 8)

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 9:28 am 
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Clutch exists. That is not even a debate.

Anytime SABR guys talk clutch they come off incredibly foolish.

I dont know why its so difficult for people to take these stats for what they are. A different look.


So many people are in the "they're worthless" or "they are sent directly by god"


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 9:28 am 
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pittmike wrote:
I saw one guy go O fer in the last big game.

Unlike David Ortiz in his Redbird days


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 9:30 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Let's get this back on track. Abreu is noticeably superior to Rizzo as of right now. Great call Steve Stone!
That, and the brooms that will be used later this evening 8)

I remember the Wrigley bros running back and forth down Waveland with brooms in 04. Then Carlos Lee did what he always did and hit a homer to tie it in the 9th (Yes, off LaTroy)


Luckily the sox bullpen walked in the winning run in the bottom of the 9th


The Cubs Sox thing is so stupid (in a good way) :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 9:31 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
pittmike wrote:
I saw one guy go O fer in the last big game.

Unlike David Ortiz in his Redbird days


Touche

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 9:31 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Let's get this back on track. Abreu is noticeably superior to Rizzo as of right now. Great call Steve Stone!

It's "FAR" Superior, Brick losing his trolling fastball.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 9:32 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Clutch exists. That is not even a debate.

Anytime SABR guys talk clutch they come off incredibly foolish.

I dont know why its so difficult for people to take these stats for what they are. A different look.


So many people are in the "they're worthless" or "they are sent directly by god"


Right. And there's a reason batting orders are set up the way they are. They're not an attempt to score the most possible runs. They're an attempt to score runs at the right time. I mean, if you really want to score the most overall runs, there is no doubt your best hitter should lead off the game. Every model you can make will show that to be true. But when I'm chasing two in the ninth, I'd like Abreu to come up with a man on. So I don't really want him batting behind Jordan Danks.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 9:34 am 
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bigfan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Let's get this back on track. Abreu is noticeably superior to Rizzo as of right now. Great call Steve Stone!

It's "FAR" Superior, Brick losing his trolling fastball.
The season is still early.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 9:37 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Clutch exists. That is not even a debate.

Anytime SABR guys talk clutch they come off incredibly foolish.

I dont know why its so difficult for people to take these stats for what they are. A different look.


So many people are in the "they're worthless" or "they are sent directly by god"


Right. And there's a reason batting orders are set up the way they are. They're not an attempt to score the most possible runs. They're an attempt to score runs at the right time. I mean, if you really want to score the most overall runs, there is no doubt your best hitter should lead off the game. Every model you can make will show that to be true. But when I'm chasing two in the ninth, I'd like Abreu to come up with a man on. So I don't really want him batting behind Jordan Danks.

To say nothing of the psychology involved with each player in relation to where he bats.


Im surprised a large voice (Bill James or someone like him) hasnt come out with a major essay or book on the misuse or over reliance on these stats


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 9:38 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
bigfan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Let's get this back on track. Abreu is noticeably superior to Rizzo as of right now. Great call Steve Stone!

It's "FAR" Superior, Brick losing his trolling fastball.
The season is still early.

Then Stone cant be correct, you have once again struck down your own statement. I can't continue to support your efforts if you are going to make it this hard.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 9:38 am 
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FavreFan wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
Negligible difference: .001 - .010 OPS
Marginal difference: .011 - .050 OPS
Noticeable difference: .051 - .09599999999 OPS
Vast difference: .0960 - .150 OPS
'Let's not even compare these two' difference (aka the Jackson-Trout difference): .151 and up OPS

So right now there is a noticeable difference between Rizzo and Abreu this season. Thanks for clarifying.

Correct.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 9:41 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Clutch exists. That is not even a debate.

Anytime SABR guys talk clutch they come off incredibly foolish.

I dont know why its so difficult for people to take these stats for what they are. A different look.


So many people are in the "they're worthless" or "they are sent directly by god"


Right. And there's a reason batting orders are set up the way they are. They're not an attempt to score the most possible runs. They're an attempt to score runs at the right time. I mean, if you really want to score the most overall runs, there is no doubt your best hitter should lead off the game. Every model you can make will show that to be true. But when I'm chasing two in the ninth, I'd like Abreu to come up with a man on. So I don't really want him batting behind Jordan Danks.

To say nothing of the psychology involved with each player in relation to where he bats.


Im surprised a large voice (Bill James or someone like him) hasnt come out with a major essay or book on the misuse or over reliance on these stats


Well, Bill James is a funny guy. He likes working those numbers, but he's still a fan. He's not a hardhead like the guys who use his numbers to bludgeon others as idiots.

Bill James hates Dick Allen for some reason. But every statistic and all the "Bill James numbers" suggest that Allen should have been a Hall of Famer a long time ago. Bill fucking hates him and ignores his own research when it comes to his opinion of the guy. That's a baseball conversation. Maybe bernstein can get him on and yell at him.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 9:43 am 
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bigfan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
bigfan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Let's get this back on track. Abreu is noticeably superior to Rizzo as of right now. Great call Steve Stone!

It's "FAR" Superior, Brick losing his trolling fastball.
The season is still early.

Then Stone cant be correct, you have once again struck down your own statement. I can't continue to support your efforts if you are going to make it this hard.
Unfortunately, I am stuck with the over the top definition provided by a few Cubs fans on here and I am attempting to stick with that.

I'm just glad to know that there is only one player in all of MLB who is far superior to Abreu(if you require 100 point difference) and two(if you require a 96 point difference).

What an amazing deal by Rick Hahn!

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 10:00 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Unfortunately, I am stuck with the over the top definition provided by a few Cubs fans on here and I am attempting to stick with that.

I'm just glad to know that there is only one player in all of MLB who is far superior to Abreu(if you require 100 point difference) and two(if you require a 96 point difference).

What an amazing deal by Rick Hahn!

Over the top :lol:

I showed you with examples yesterday that 100 works. But that doesnt set up well for you, so you call it over the top.


A .50 point difference usually means there are like 5 or 6 players (in all of MLB) in between the two. Do you believe that to be far superior?


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 10:05 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
I showed you with examples yesterday that 100 works. But that doesnt set up well for you, so you call it over the top.
Do you really think there is only one player in all of MLB that is far superior to Abreu?


rogers park bryan wrote:
A .50 point difference usually means there are like 5 or 6 players (in all of MLB) in between the two. Do you believe that to be far superior?
That isn't true, unless we are talking about the very top.

Abreu is 10th, Rizzo is 27th right now.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 10:17 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
I showed you with examples yesterday that 100 works. But that doesnt set up well for you, so you call it over the top.
Do you really think there is only one player in all of MLB that is far superior to Abreu?

Thru a little over a month? Sounds about right.

rogers park bryan wrote:
A .50 point difference usually means there are like 5 or 6 players (in all of MLB) in between the two. Do you believe that to be far superior?
That isn't true, unless we are talking about the very top.

Abreu is 10th, Rizzo is 27th right now.[/quote]
That is not a 50 point difference. Its 66.


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 10:21 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
That is not a 50 point difference. Its 66.
:lol: Where is Hank Scorpio to laugh at this?

Abreu is 10th.
.893 would put you in 26th place.

So, I'll amend it to that. One spot difference.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 10:23 am 
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Here is a "Rizzo" stat:

Cubs have one of the best leadoff men in baseball this season.
He gets on & can steal.


RIZZO HAS 16 FRICKIN RBI's!!

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 10:24 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
That is not a 50 point difference. Its 66.
:lol: Where is Hank Scorpio to laugh at this?

Im starting to think you honestly arent aware.

So, you believe that the difference between 100 and 96 is comparable to 50 and 66?


One is 4% difference.

The other is a 34% difference.

Hank was correct to laugh at you yesterday.


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 10:25 am 
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jimmypasta wrote:
Here is a "Rizzo" stat:

Cubs have one of the best leadoff men in baseball this season.
He gets on & can steal.


RIZZO HAS 16 FRICKIN RBI's!!

.269 with RISP

.308 with runners on base


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 10:26 am 
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jimmypasta wrote:
Here is a "Rizzo" stat:

Cubs have one of the best leadoff men in baseball this season.
He gets on & can steal.


RIZZO HAS 16 FRICKIN RBI's!!

Wrong. God you're an idiot sometimes.

Since the first week of the season, Bonifacio has an OBP of .280 and an OPS of .559. And he has only 6 SB with 3 CS in that same time frame.

He has been one of the worst leadoff men since the first week of the season.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 10:27 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
That is not a 50 point difference. Its 66.
:lol: Where is Hank Scorpio to laugh at this?

Im starting to think you honestly arent aware.

So, you believe that the difference between 100 and 96 is comparable to 50 and 66?


One is 4% difference.

The other is a 34% difference.

Hank was correct to laugh at you yesterday.
Your point was that there are only 5 or 6 players in between .50

I pointed out that the difference is 17, and then you had me knock it down to 16.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the 10th best hitter in baseball is normally far superior to the 26th.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 10:29 am 
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immessedup17 wrote:
jimmypasta wrote:
Here is a "Rizzo" stat:

Cubs have one of the best leadoff men in baseball this season.
He gets on & can steal.


RIZZO HAS 16 FRICKIN RBI's!!

Wrong. God you're an idiot sometimes.

Since the first week of the season, Bonifacio has an OBP of .280 and an OPS of .559. And he has only 6 SB with 3 CS in that same time frame.

He has been one of the worst leadoff men since the first week of the season.


I guess I was thrown off by the fact his average above .300 has been maintained ALL SEASON!
He must be getting on somehow but that OBP of .280 IS terrible,I'll admit that. Where do you get these stats?? MLB.com?

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 10:30 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the 10th best hitter in baseball is normally far superior to the 26th.

You keep going out on limbs. Ill just watch people correct you and you get upset about it.


Last years 10th best was Andrew McCutchen. 26 was Evan Longoria.


Whoops


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 10:32 am 
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jimmypasta wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
jimmypasta wrote:
Here is a "Rizzo" stat:

Cubs have one of the best leadoff men in baseball this season.
He gets on & can steal.


RIZZO HAS 16 FRICKIN RBI's!!

Wrong. God you're an idiot sometimes.

Since the first week of the season, Bonifacio has an OBP of .280 and an OPS of .559. And he has only 6 SB with 3 CS in that same time frame.

He has been one of the worst leadoff men since the first week of the season.


I guess I was thrown off by the fact his average above .300 has been maintained ALL SEASON!
He must be getting on somehow but that OBP of .280 IS terrible,I'll admit that. Where do you get these stats?? MLB.com?

The eye test has told me Bonifacio has sucked recently.

The actual figures come from baseball reference.

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 10:57 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the 10th best hitter in baseball is normally far superior to the 26th.

You keep going out on limbs. Ill just watch people correct you and you get upset about it.


Last years 10th best was Andrew McCutchen. 26 was Evan Longoria.


Whoops
OPS matters until OPS doesn't matter I guess. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo
PostPosted: Thu May 08, 2014 11:05 am 
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Whoops? :lol: :lol:

I would say that the 2013 NL MVP had a far superior season to Evan Longoria.

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