How to Bet the 2016 Kentucky Derby
From Forbes Magazine
http://www.forbes.com/sites/guymartin/2 ... 2b5faf1267Guy Martin
CONTRIBUTOR
The field for this year’s Kentucky Derby will be big and darn rowdy—in this sense, April is the cruellest month, at least for trainers and owners vying for the first leg of the Triple Crown. The unusually exciting thing about the 142nd Run for the Roses is that so many horses have come out of so many different directions to the race.
With Louisiana Derby winner Gun Runner, trained by Steve Asmussen, a kind of all-odds points favorite—meaning, having assembled enough wins to establish a ‘point’ lead over the field—Nyquist, with a stunning win in the Florida Derby, heaved into view as a favorite over a much-touted Mohaymen. A scant week later, within in a few hours on Saturday, April 9, three other major contenders showed their stuff at tracks across the country.
At Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial, the Todd Pletcher-trained Outwork literally nosed out the 81-1 come-from-behind Trojan Nation to take New York’s classic Derby prep. Down on home turf in Lexington, Kentucky, Brody’s Cause edged out the field in the Blue Grass Stakes. And way out there in California, in the very wet Santa Anita Derby, the gritty, impressive Exaggerator, trained by Keith Desormeaux, who has his Hall-of-Fame brother Kent in the irons, needed zero help powering through the mud to take the prize money by six-and-a-half lengths. Never underestimate the Desormeaux brothers, in other words. It helps that jockey Kent has four Kentucky Derby wins under his belt.
To help handicap this maze of really delightful bets, I have once again been locked in deep consultation with the Bluegrass Wise Man ™, whose rapier wit, horse sense and deep handicapping wisdom proved so popular in the runup to last year’s Triple Crown. The Wise Man is a lifelong Kentucky horseman, stable-owner, and Lexington insider. All Kentuckians have embedded in their DNA the deep, ruminative Zen art of knowing equine talent. Basically, Kentucky horsemen – as opposed to all other horsemen – are drinking the same famous limestone-inflected water that builds such fine bones in the thoroughbreds, and when you improve the taste of that mineral water with few jiggers of the local craftsmanly distillates as Kentucky horsemen are wont to do, then that only helps them adjudicate the horse flesh. The Wise Man is no exception. His bred-in-the-bone Kentucky-ness gives a special barrel-aged depth to his pre-race analysis. Full disclosure: he and his syndicate have no horses in this year’s race.
Forbes: So, Nyquist. Superb in the Florida Derby, really put Mohaymen away. Most everybody was touting Mohaymen, citing his experience, whatever that means in a three-year-old. Where does Nyquist get his extra gear?
Bluegrass Wise Man: Nyquist gets his extra gear from his sire, Uncle Mo. Uncle Mo is the leading second crop sire at the moment, and his oldest horses are three-year-olds. Uncle Mo had the winner of New York’s Wood Memorial, of course, in Outwork. The Uncle Moes can run. What I’m saying is that there will be at least two Uncle Moes this year at Churchill Downs CHDN +%.
What the hell was everybody touting Mohaymen so hard for then? The dude completely collapsed in the last two furlongs.
The thinking on Mohaymen was that he ran a subpar race, but is capable of more. He did race wide nearly all the way and he was trying to beat a track bias that was playing to horses that were able to get the early lead. That is a jockey problem, not necessarily a horse problem. Not many horses were closing on the damp Gulfstream surface that day. Mohaymen still needs to be considered.
Does Nyquist have any weaknesses?
The question is going to be whether or not he can get to the end of the one-and-a-quarter. Uncle Mo could not, nor could his sire Indian Charlie, or said another way, neither could Nyquist’s grandfather really eat the track at that length. The Derby’s a long race, is what I’m telling you, which means there are going to be plenty of threats to Nyquist.
Exaggerator murdered everybody within sight in the Santa Anita Derby. Help us put this horse in perspective.
Exaggerator is an interesting horse. Let’s remember that, despite the great win at Santa Anita, he has been beaten twice by Nyquist. He is a son of Curlin, an amazing sire who suggests the Derby distance will not be an issue. Exaggerator does have the win over a sloppy track which could occur on Derby Day, as we know. He always seems to be in the mix down the stretch and making his run. The Desormeaux Brothers are horsemen. Keith Desormeaux has not had many Derby starters, but he certainly knows how to have his horses fit on the appropriate day. His biggest fear may be that Kent rides a bad race and invokes others to call him by his nickname of “Sleepy” after the Derby.
“Sleepy” Desormeaux? Really? Okay, I don’t think we wanna know.
That’s his nickname.
Can we be right in sensing that Outwork – despite the fact that he’s trained by Todd Pletcher – seems like he may be having to work harder than Exaggerator just to be in the field?
Outwork is an emerging horse for Pletcher. He is another son of Uncle Mo and is owned by Mike Repole, who, actually, raced Uncle Mo. Outwork’s win in the Wood Memorial was solid but did come over a muddy sealed race track that seemed to favor speed. I am not revved up on him just yet. He ran a good 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby to another horse trained by Pletcher, Destin. But. He has not run back since that race but did turn in a good workout recently.
Is winning the Derby always and forever about ‘running back?’
Just remember when you are laying down the big bets: Whether it’s about the horse, the pedigree, the trainer, the jockey, the length of the race, the condition of the track, or a combination of all six, the clock and the camera never lie.
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