BD wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
BD wrote:
Can it be taken as a coincidence that the four teams in this league that had their teams in the Conference Championship games were either #1 overall picks, traded for #1 overall picks in the same draft, or arguably the best QB's of all time? Do we have that kind of QB on our roster right now? I think the answer is no.
I don't really think you can take a common theme from any of the QB play. Peyton Manning was highly regarded, but some people thought Ryan Leaf would be better. I think it's safe to say that Peyton was the most "can't miss" of all the qb's.
Tom Brady is one of those once in a decade QB's that exceeds expectations far beyond the draft scouting report(Favre was the last one before him).
Eli Manning has not met his potential yet from when he was drafted. He's shown signs in the playoffs, but the argument on Eli Manning is not over. He didn't even have an all pro year this year. Eli could have a Rex Grossman like fall from grace next year.
Philip Rivers regressed this year and has played good enough to get to the Patriots. I think Rivers will end up being very good but he's also not an all pro qb.
So if that's what we need to win a Super Bowl and that guy isn't available in free agency, and we're probably ultimately going to have to find that guy in the draft, and we have a top half of the 1st round pick, why wouldn't we take another shot? Without a game changing QB, which seem to have to be homegrown, we won't be in the Super Bowl anytime soon.
What's the common theme? Eli Manning has been already labeled as a bust by many, is averaging under 200 yards a game in the playoffs, and may end up losing his job next year just like Rex Grossman did.
Tom Brady was a 6th round pick that wasn't that good in college that became the best QB in NFL history(possibly).
Peyton Manning was considered a sure thing coming out of college and has lived up to the hype. Ryan Leaf was also considered a sure thing and some said he would be better than Manning.
Philip Rivers regressed this year or at worst didn't improve. He wasn't even the one to lead them on the game winning drive against Indianapolis.
There is no common theme here. Add in the fact that Chad Henne has as good of a chance of success in the NFL as Brian Brohm or Matt Ryan or Andre Woodson(see Tom Brady and everyone drafted before him).
Here are the Super Bowl winning QB's of recent time.
Peyton Manning-A sure fire NFL star coming out of college who lived up to the hype. #1 pick
Ben Roethlisburger-A good QB from a MAC school who was the third QB taken. #11 pick
Tom Brady-Most would have predicted he would be in the league for 3 years max. Craig Krenzel was more highly regarded coming out of college. Barely kept his spot as starting QB at Michigan. 6th round pick
Brad Johnson- Journeyman QB that managed games.
Trent Dilfer- Definition of game manager
Kurt Warner- Ex-arena league QB. Not even a journeyman. Lucky he ever made it to the NFL.
John Elway-Hall of fame QB. #1 pick
Brett Favre-Similar to Brady. Highly exceeded expectations. 33rd pick
Troy Aikman-Hall of Fame QB. #1 pick
Steve Young-Hall of Fame QB. Started in USFL. #1 pick in supplemental draft.
The only real constant I see there is that you draft a QB #1 and he meets potential.
This is a deep QB draft but there are no stars. Drafting the third best QB in the draft at 14 is a reach. Maybe if all of them are available and you get your main guy then it's worth it.
Pick a lineman. Reach for a WR in a deep WR draft. Fix your other offensive issues.
We can bring in a young QB. That's probably a good idea but there are other needs we can fill at 14 that are more sure fire than any QB out there.