https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/does-jahlil-okafor-have-a-place-in-todays-nba/
TL;DR: No.
Quote:
This week, our ESPN Insider colleague Kevin Pelton did an analysis of Okafor’s potential based on his projections using Real Plus-Minus. Okafor came into the NBA as one of its finest low-post prospects in years. But a season and a half into his career, Okafor grades out poorly by RPM, as he does in the acronym-jumble of other advanced metrics that try to distill a player’s impact into one stat. What those composite stats are hinting at, and what’s obvious to many onlookers, is that underneath that scoring, there isn’t much to Okafor’s game.
Ordinarily, the big-bucket stats are more of a guideline than a rule. But in Okafor’s case, the concern goes a little deeper. While there are some talented big men who have found success despite those stats not thinking much of them, they have tended to excel at more than one thing. DeAndre Jordan is an elite rim protector and all-around defender, and he’s one of the league’s best targets for lobs and other feeds inside. Enes Kanter is a good inside scorer, but he’s also consistently one of the top defensive rebounders in the league.
And then there’s Okafor, who has struggled to find a secondary skill, which in today’s NBA makes life hard for a big man. Putting aside the rare passing savant like Marc Gasol, Boris Diaw or Chris Webber, a typical NBA big’s path to success tends to come from inside scoring, perimeter shooting, defense and rebounding. Okafor’s strength is down low, where he’s scoring about 88 points per 100 possessions on post-ups, according to NBA.com,3 which is about the middle of the pack for players using at least one post possession per game. That’s not eye-popping, but he has a natural presence around the rim and can occasionally put the ball on the floor and use some fluid post moves to find space for a shot. That said, no one’s going to mistake him for Anthony Davis when he tries to catch and drive.
It gets worse from there. His defensive RPM is second-to-last among 70 qualified centers, ahead of only Karl-Anthony Towns. When Okafor is on the court, Philadelphia gives up 113.8 points per 100 possessions; when he sits, that improves to 106.8, per NBAwowy.com. His defensive inadequacies are especially glaring given the play of Embiid, who’s been outstanding on defense far earlier than is typical for a frontcourt player. Okafor is still just 21 years old, so it’s possible he’ll improve, but he has a very long way to go for that to be the case.
While it may not be fair to judge Okafor’s defense just yet, his rebounding is another story. Going back to his days at Duke, Okafor has never rebounded especially well, particularly given his size. His total rebound rate (which is just the percent of available rebounds a player collects while he’s on the court) was 12.8 for the Sixers last year, and this year it’s fallen even lower to 11.6. Those are anemic numbers for a center, and ones that look even worse when you consider how he’s collecting them.
Okafor converts just 44.8 percent of his defensive rebound “chances”4 into rebounds. Among players who have played at least 15 minutes per game and 20 games this season, Okafor ranks 287th out of 294 players5, coming in ahead of just two point guards, three shooting guards and, by professional rebounding standards, a pair of NBA Fatheads someone left on the court.6
So, to recap: Okafor doesn’t do a good job of fighting for his boards, which is made worse by the fact that he isn’t in position for many in the first place.
Okafor creates 11 defensive rebound chances per 36 minutes he’s on the floor. The best rebounders in the league create about 15 chances per 36 minutes: Andre Drummond is good for 17.1, Dwight Howard for 15.6, Embiid 14.9, per NBA.com — and each of them converts those chances at a rate far, far above Okafor’s. The drop from 15 to 11 may not seem like a lot, but it’s the difference from those elite rebounders and stretch bigs, like Channing Frye (11.2) or wing players, such as Okafor’s teammate Robert Covington (10.6). Of all the knocks against Okafor, this is the one that seems the most damaging to his prospects as a franchise cornerstone.
And beyond defense, we don’t need to discuss his shooting range just yet — he’s taken just six 3-pointers in his career (none this season), and has shot 27 percent from outside 16 feet.
This article's premise is silly and not true. He's basically Al Jefferson, could be better or worse but that would be who you'd compare him to. If he never gets better then obviously he won't be a very useful player long term, but this article is pretty much making the assumption he won't get better, which is absurd.