this idiot shares my opinion... he's an idiot for sure.
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1. insights from Mitchell (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky's Six-Touchdown Day
Last week's column revealed weaknesses in (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky's game that could be difficult for him to overcome and develop into a top franchise quarterback. What a difference a week makes, right?
Not so fast.
The differences between (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky's Week 4 and Week 5 performances include the quality of the opponent, the offensive game plan, and only one immature decision in Week 5 that would have fit with several he made in Week 4.
This decrease in immature decision-making would be positive if the Buccaneers defense created scenarios similar to the ones (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky faced last week against the Cardinals. Because this didn't happen, it's impossible to say that (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky's judgment in more difficult scenarios has improved.
This is why A) (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky didn't perform well last week on the field, B) had a great statistical performance this week, but C) has done nothing to prove that he's overcome the issues that were prominent with his college film. Tampa Bay's defense wasn't good enough to test (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky in this manner for two reasons:
It started a third-string safety.
It started a pair of rookie defensive backs who are better known as physical players than burners.
Combined with Bears' offensive game plan that confused the Buccaneers' inexperienced secondary with bunch sets, decoys, and double moves, the offense had a great game that is unlikely a precursor of things to come.
(Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky's first touchdown is a great example of wide-open looks that the Bears generated for much of the game against this overwhelmed Buccaneers' secondary. The out-and-up by Burton is an easy play thanks in part to Joshua Bellamy's (Allen Robinson is mentioned in the video, but it's Bellamy for those fact-checking at home) post that freezes the safety in place.
T Burton TD; (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky TD1 wide open pic.twitter.com/OTeuyECSCH
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 30, 2018
Here's a related play later in the game that features Tarik Cohen in a mismatch with rookie M.J. Stewart
Another double move with a slot man—this time, T Cohen pic.twitter.com/bhe9zHSEJG
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 30, 2018
And here's a third trips look with a double move from Burton that leaves the tight end in an open field like Julie Andrews in The Sound of Music.
Another double move from bunch trips to Burton pic.twitter.com/waSSerFYQc
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 30, 2018
When the Bears weren't confusing the Buccaneers with trips-bunch and double moves, it created mismatches by splitting Cohen outside and leaving players like Allen Robinson with a rookie one-on-one.
Robinson on rookie DB in slot. Find route; on-time throw. pic.twitter.com/tL89rCIMLu
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 30, 2018
Coach Matt Nagy finally used Cohen as the focal point of his offense, something that seemed logical to do when studying how Nagy used Tyreek Hill in Kansas City. This hasn't happened until this week and even so, Cohen split a lot of that Kansas City role with Taylor Gabriel.
Nagy used some of that Hill flavor with Cohen in the passing game from the backfield. This isn't a bunch-trips look below but the way it functions, it might as well be. The result is a mismatch with linebacker Lavontae David for a Cohen touchdown reception.
Cohen not in the bunch, but a part of it for TD v L David. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky TD 3 pic.twitter.com/ZYyy4fzOir
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 30, 2018
Once an offense has this much success, opposing defenses — especially those with young players reeling from failure — are confused and reactive for the rest of the game. At this point, Cohen becomes a decoy and helps spring a wide-open Bellamy (yes, fact-checkers, I said Allen Robinson again on the video) for the score.
Fresh Fish: (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky TD4 with bunch trips setup of screen to Cohen but pump and throw to wide-open Robinson. pic.twitter.com/SwqU1Oyzxz
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 30, 2018
The Bears offense had a fantastic afternoon. However, the Buccaneers didn't test them. Not like the Cardinals or Seahawks defenses. It's why crowning (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky as an emerging force is premature. What separates a good starting quarterback from anyone getting a chance to start in the NFL is what was mentioned in this video last week.
Nice throw by (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky but it is not what defines a good starter. pic.twitter.com/1izoNBC8GI
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 24, 2018
Keep in mind, Derek Anderson had a 328-yard, 5-touchdown effort in Week 2 against the Bengals during his second season in the NFL. Anderson even earned a Pro Bowl nod. He never sustained those heights. Matt Cassel had five games in 2008 with at least three touchdown passes for the Patriots while replacing an injured Tom Brady but Cassel only had two more seasons close to that first-year production when New England traded him to the Chiefs a year later.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Neil O'Donnell, Blake Bortles, Dave Krieg, Kerry Collins, Tony Banks, and Elvis Grbac have all thrown at least five touchdowns in a game. There's no correlation between touchdowns in a game and long-term production.
Despite the "not so fast," insights from this game in regard to (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky, there's reason for optimism. The Bears unleashed the version of its offense that we expected to see earlier in the season. The Tarik Cohen, Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and Trey Burton are mismatches that can be moved around to create a lot of frustration for opponents.
If you have (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky in your fantasy leagues, there's reason for hope but don't get too optimistic until the Bears use this offense successfully against a healthier opponent with experienced and skilled personnel.
Fans know that the NFL is filled with week-to-week analysis that can leave one feeling emotional whiplash. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky gave us reason for optimism but the quality of the opponent shouldn't be overlooked and opposing defenses are notorious for making in-season adjustments after having four weeks of tape from the current season.
Miami should be a favorable matchup for (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky after the Week 5 bye. The Patriots and Jets should offer a more telling test. If you can sell (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky high for a player like Jared Goff, I'd take that risk.