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KDdidit
 Post subject: Who needs PECOTA?
PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 1:57 pm 
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Baseball Reference is running a 2020 simulation while the league is off using Out of the Park Baseball (A pretty great game if you all you care about is numbers and not gameplay). Based on this it's a good thing for the Cubs they're not playing.





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Jaw Breaker
 Post subject: Re: Who needs PECOTA?
PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 2:21 pm 
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Looks about right.

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Frank Coztansa
 Post subject: Re: Who needs PECOTA?
PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 2:22 pm 
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I'd say Cleveland has about 5, maybe 6 too many wins, but other than that its pretty good. I expected the Cubs to be bad, but not .380 bad

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Nardi
 Post subject: Re: Who needs PECOTA?
PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 2:28 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
I'd say Cleveland has about 5, maybe 6 too many wins, but other than that its pretty good. I expected the Cubs to be bad, but not .380 bad

Fucking Indians. They just keep plugging in pitchers. I JUST CAN'T TAKE IT ANYMORE!

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tommy
 Post subject: Re: Who needs PECOTA?
PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 2:30 pm 
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Look at the White Sox, about to make their move. Seems very '83-esque.
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312player
 Post subject: Re: Who needs PECOTA?
PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 3:17 pm 
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I think this shortened season is great for the Cubs, we only need 90 innings from Lester, Darvish, Hendricks and Quintana. Those guys can all get hot.

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Phil Leotardo
 Post subject: Re: Who needs PECOTA?
PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 3:37 pm 
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Garbage. Seattle and Colorado aren't very good. SD, Philly, Cubs, and Texas way too low. Brewers aren't good either.
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good dolphin
 Post subject: Re: Who needs PECOTA?
PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 10:39 am 
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tommy wrote:
Look at the White Sox, about to make their move. Seems very '83-esque.


Who would be the aging veteran he has always coveted that KW would be pushing to acquire if this season was a reality?

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Pal
 Post subject: Re: Who needs PECOTA?
PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 12:36 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
tommy wrote:
Look at the White Sox, about to make their move. Seems very '83-esque.


Who would be the aging veteran he has always coveted that KW would be pushing to acquire if this season was a reality?

Charlie Blackmon
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Juiced
 Post subject: Re: Who needs PECOTA?
PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 1:37 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
I'd say Cleveland has about 5, maybe 6 too many wins, but other than that its pretty good. I expected the Cubs to be bad, but not .380 bad


I'd like to see the injury reports for the teams. That .380 might reflect their lack of depth. If a couple pitchers went down, then I could see it being pretty accurate.
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Frank Coztansa
 Post subject: Re: Who needs PECOTA?
PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 1:39 pm 
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Juiced wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
I'd say Cleveland has about 5, maybe 6 too many wins, but other than that its pretty good. I expected the Cubs to be bad, but not .380 bad


I'd like to see the injury reports for the teams. That .380 might reflect their lack of depth. If a couple pitchers went down, then I could see it being pretty accurate.
Maybe they had to play 40 games in 41 days to start the season.

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Hatchetman
 Post subject: Re: Who needs PECOTA?
PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 1:44 pm 
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these statistical things always have problems. Kopech pitched in two games in 2018, at least one with a torn ACL. so that obviously killed his numbers. but the computer doesn't get that, in just puts those numbers into the model. so in this simulation, Kopech is getting blitzed.

stuff like that bugs me.

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KDdidit
 Post subject: Re: Who needs PECOTA?
PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 1:55 pm 
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I think it models the Cubs really suck, other than Riz, KB, Baez, and maybe Yu and Hendricks, pretty well.

Lol, losing pitcher Jose Quintana
Code:
Jose Quintana   31   1   6   .143   6.89   


Hatchetman wrote:
these statistical things always have problems. Kopech pitched in two games in 2018, at least one with a torn ACL. so that obviously killed his numbers. but the computer doesn't get that, in just puts those numbers into the model. so in this simulation, Kopech is getting blitzed.

stuff like that bugs me.


He's only pitched 9 innings in the model he'll be fine, unless he won't be.
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Frank Coztansa
 Post subject: Re: Who needs PECOTA?
PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 1:56 pm 
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Poor, unlucky Quintana can't even get run support in a simulated season!

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Hatchetman
 Post subject: Re: Who needs PECOTA?
PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 2:07 pm 
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KDdidit wrote:

He's only pitched 9 innings in the model he'll be fine, unless he won't be.


I'm not worried about him in real life but in order for a statistical forecasting model to generate those results, something has to be jacked up with the underlying data.

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Juiced
 Post subject: Re: Who needs PECOTA?
PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 2:48 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Juiced wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
I'd say Cleveland has about 5, maybe 6 too many wins, but other than that its pretty good. I expected the Cubs to be bad, but not .380 bad


I'd like to see the injury reports for the teams. That .380 might reflect their lack of depth. If a couple pitchers went down, then I could see it being pretty accurate.
Maybe they had to play 40 games in 41 days to start the season.


:lol:
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KDdidit
 Post subject: Re: Who needs PECOTA?
PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:29 pm 
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Not getting much better for the Cubs. Q, Chatwood, and Yu going a combined 6-22.

After 20 innings, Hatch's guy Kopech still getting shelled.
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BigW72
 Post subject: Re: Who needs PECOTA?
PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:24 am 
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There's no way I'd have the Indians leading the Twins in the division, yet alone have a .629 winning %. That's....delusional. The Twins would likely have the division wire to wire.

I also think their being a bit hard on the Cubs and Padres.

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